Death will not release you!𓅽 @7leaguebootdisk.bsky.social

Killing Roe broke their likely voter model, and thus polling. Dems keep outperforming in special elections since that.

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David @crookedknight.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:39 UTC

Also LV screens were completely worthless in both 2016 and 2020, and nobody knows how much of that was due to unique factors in those years so even if they've managed to figure out how to retroactively make the numbers work (and I'm not sure anyone has) applying those lessons to 2024 is a crapshoot.

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SlobberHog @banjofiend.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:38 UTC

I am going to assume any state that has abortion on the ballot will see Dems way outperform. Florida will be real interesting.

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