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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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EN www.ips-journal.eu/topics/forei...
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Tobias Fella@tobiaspfella.bsky.social |
213 followers 205 following 66 posts
Project Head, Challenges to Deep Cuts, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH) I Great Powers I Deterrence & Arms Control I Transatlantic Relations I Nukes I War & Strategic Studies I Rap I FirstGen
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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EN www.ips-journal.eu/topics/forei...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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My take with Cornelius Friesendorf on the unintended consequences of the Zeitenwende. Available in English and German. www.ipg-journal.de/rubriken/aus...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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The current debate in 🇩🇪 on a German or European nuclear deterrent has historical precedents. If you are looking for an overview of earlier debates, including ideas for joint efforts with 🇫🇷 and 🇮🇹, you can find it here => t.co/bsvUMdCtdC
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Hi Matt, this is Tobias of IFSH Hamburg. A colleague is trying to get in touch with you but has no email address of yours. Could you pls send me your recent email address? Thx
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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At a time of great power rivalry, there is no reason for the arms control community to be on the defensive. On the contrary, arms control has the approaches & tools to navigate through this conflict-ridden period. nationalinterest.org/feature/nucl...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Aufrüstung ist kein Selbstzweck und Rüstungskontrolle und Abschreckung schließen sich nicht aus. Meine beiden Interviews mit der Tagesschau zur deutschen Debatte über Atomwaffen und darüber hinaus können hier nachgelesen und nachgesehen werden => www.tagesschau.de/inland/gesel...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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I was interviewed by Marie Illner via WEBDENews on the logic of deterrence and signalling and the risks involved in the Middle East. There was a particular focus on Iran and its foreign and security policy instrument, the so-called 'Axis of Resistance', web.de/magazine/pol...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Russian authorities responded to a letter from the US administration, which contained a proposal to launch a bilateral dialogue on reducing nuclear risks and developing new agreements in the field of arms control. Russia considered the US initiative unacceptable. www.kommersant.ru/doc/6456037
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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"Russia has rejected an American proposal to reopen an arms-control dialogue with Washington, saying the U.S. was pursuing a hostile policy toward Moscow, U.S. officials said Thursday." www.wsj.com/world/russia...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Lavrov: "We can see what Washington is after: they want to mitigate nuclear risks to themselves while securing an advantage in terms of other military capabilities. This approach, which the Americans refer to as compartmentalisation is absolutely unacceptable." www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_p...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Wolfgang Richter hat im Dezember über die Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Wien ausführlich zum Ukrainekrieg publiziert - über Vorbereitungshandlungen und den Verlauf ebenso wie Eskalationsrisiken und Folgerungen u.a. für die deutsche Außenpolitik. library.fes.de/pdf-files/bu...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Must-read! Dep Cuts Issue Brief by Steven Pifer, Victor Mizin and Patricia Jaworek on the future of New Start and why an unconstrained strategic arms race is not in interests of the United States, Russia and China. deepcuts.org/publications...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Preparing for a second Trump administration? According to former German foreign minister Joschka Fischer, the European Union needs to have its own nuclear deterrent. www.zeit.de/politik/deut...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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A country on war footing. Interesting read at The Economist, www.economist.com/briefing/202...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov: Today there are no options for a document or documents to continue or replace the New START Treaty... If the United States expects to win the next arms race, they are mistaken. iz.ru/1612456/seme...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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If you want to know what 🇩🇪's current arms control priorities are, and to what extent Berlin attaches greater importance to nuclear deterrence than in recent years, you should read the 🇩🇪 statement at the Second Meeting of States Parties to the TPNW. reachingcriticalwill.org/images/docum...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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In an interview with Stern magazine, renowned German political scientist Herfried Münkler calls for Europe to arm itself with nuclear weapons in order to be better protected against war. www.stern.de/politik/ausl...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan argue that Ukraine should shift from an offensive to a defensive strategy in its war with Russia, not least in view of next year's US presidential elections, www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/rede...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Worth reading - whether you agree with him or not: PISM's Artur Kacprzyk argues that it is time to include Poland in NATO's nuclear sharing to send a deterrent signal to Russia. www.pism.pl/publications...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Deterrence, world power and world order. My assessment of US foreign and security policy in the Greater Middle East with Marie Illner at Web.de (in German) web.de/magazine/pol...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Fifty years ago, US President Nixon and Soviet Premier Brezhnev signed the US-Soviet Treaty on the Prevention of Nuclear War. Sarah Bidgood examines why they pursued this agreement in the first place and to what extent they achieved their goals. www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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The geopolitical competition between China and the United States will be a defining element of the 21st century. This makes it all the more important to talk and find areas of common ground, including on arms control. www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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A new report from the State Department's ISAB has been released: The report examines the challenges facing the United States in a world of nuclear multipolarity and includes policy recommendations for the DoS. The study group was chaired by @atomjon.bsky.social www.state.gov/wp-content/u...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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It is not just about people, it is about a shift in the centre of gravity of the debate: "When it comes to the US nuclear posture in East Asia, Biden is not only following Trump’s lead, but in some ways taking an even more aggressive stance." 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🚀 www.politico.com/news/magazin...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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It is vital to understand the GOP's positions on arms control. In the 1990s, we had a faction that saw arms control as an unnecessary constraint on American power in the production of public goods. Today, much of the GOP has a narrower definition of the national interest. time.com/6334258/puti...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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The DoS announced the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability, the new name of the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, arguing that this change reflects an effort to address emerging 21st century national security challenges, www.state.gov/announcing-t...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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We are entering an era of conventional & nuclear instability. Arms control must adapt. Take by Mathias Hammer, quotes from Rose Gottemoeller, Heather Williams, @atomjon.bsky.social, Tong Zhao, Steve Pifer, @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @baklitskiy.bsky.social & myself. time.com/6334258/puti...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Antony Blinken: “I can say, as a general principle for us, that when it comes to artificial intelligence, that we believe that artificial intelligence should not be in the loop or making the decisions about how and when a nuclear weapon is used”, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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William Alberque: "With the Vienna Document under pressure, and the survival of the OSCE itself increasingly coming into question, the [Euro-Atlantic] region is taking yet another step into a post-arms-control world." www.iiss.org/online-analy...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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„The Kremlin said on Wednesday that strategic dialogue with the United States over nuclear weapons was ‚definitely necessary’ but that such talks could not happen while Washington was ‚lecturing’ Moscow.“ www.reuters.com/world/kremli...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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US-China arms control talks were held in DC. The US stressed the importance of increased PRC nuclear transparency and substantive engagement on practical measures to manage and reduce strategic risks in multiple domains. The end of history is not imminent, so rivalry management is essential.
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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"🇩🇪 remains committed to Europe’s security. This includes commitment to effective arms control for conventional armed forces in Europe. 🇩🇪 is willing to continue certain measures of the CFE Treaty, such as data sharing, with interested European countries." www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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The European security architecture continues to erode. We are entering an era of conventional and nuclear instability. Great power rivalry will be the order of the day. Still, we have to find common ground with opponents to produce vital public goods. www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Any agreements between Russia and NATO member states in the sphere of arms control are impossible as of today, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement, APA reports citing TASS. en.apa.az/cis-countrie...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergei Ryabkov on Washington’s initiatives in the nuclear field: "The situation in relations with the United States is not conducive to dialogue on such sensitive issues." Reporting by @elenachernenko.bsky.social www.kommersant.ru/doc/6320528
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Oleg Krivolapov of the Russian Academy of Sciences proposes some ideas for future missile defence arrangements in an article for the Stimson Center. www.stimson.org/2023/redefin...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Ukraine's commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, admits that the war is currently at a stalemate and that a long war would favour Russia. That is why, he says, Western support is crucial for Ukraine, as is innovation in combining technological solutions. www.economist.com/europe/2023/...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Kommersant: Interview with Pranay Vaddi, Special Assistant to the US President and Senior Director for Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, on the possible resumption of nuclear arms control talks with Russia. www.kommersant.ru/doc/6312856
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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President Putin today signed a bill revoking Russia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, a move that Moscow said was necessary to establish parity with the United States. apnews.com/article/russ...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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It is vital to understand the logic of the other. According to Hanna Notte, Putin has toned down his nuclear rhetoric because the Russian leadership has realised that it needs to go beyond rhetoric to keep the spectre of nuclear escalation over the Ukraine war alive. www.ft.com/content/d984...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Guardian: China and US reportedly agree to rare nuclear arms control talks. The talks, expected on Monday, would be the first since the Obama administration and follow a visit to Washington by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. www.theguardian.com/world/2023/n...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Good news at a difficult time: In the coming days, the United States and China will hold consultations on maritime affairs, arms control and non-proliferation, and foreign policy, among other issues. www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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The Biden administration plans to develop a new nuclear bomb. The plan appears to be intended to persuade Congressional hardliners to agree to retire the B83-1 Megaton bomb, worth reading analysis by @nukestrat.bsky.social and @mattkorda.bsky.social fas.org/publication/...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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What must not happen are surprises about possible steps and debates. For example, the report states that on page 35 that additional U.S. theater nuclear capabilities will be necessary in Europe and Asia to deter adversary nuclear use and offset local conventional superiority.
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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The Europeans, and especially the Germans with their experience as a frontline state in the Cold War, must understand this development and its consequences for their security and do one thing above all else: exert influence in order to be perceived as a force to be reckoned with. 4/4
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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But the report is also a warning to Beijing and Moscow about what will happen if arms control is not revived. The undertone is clear: the US intends to win an arms race against China and Russia. It has not resigned to its decline as the only superpower. 3/4
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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For some, these recommendations are the path to a dangerous arms race, simply unaffordable, or an expression of US budget battles; for others, their implementation is a necessity for national security and world order. 2/4 fas.org/publication/...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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The Congressional Strategic Posture Commission calls for strengthening US nuclear capabilities to deter China and Russia. It also states that the USA should be able to defeat both countries in simultaneous wars. 1/4 armedservices.house.gov/sites/republ...
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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Das geht nicht nur dir so ;)
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Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
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BBC: "Russia has rehearsed its ability to deliver a 'massive' nuclear strike, the Kremlin says." www.bbc.com/news/world-e...
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