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Brad DeLong@delong.bsky.social |
3659 followers 1265 following 774 posts
Author of "Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the 20th Century" <bit.ly/3pP3Krk>. Too online since 1995. Sometime Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. <braddelong.substack.com>
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...right now would be (a) seriously asymmetric risks on the inflation side, or (b) a belief that fiscal policy's stimulative effect is strong, and needs to be offset. I do not see how you can argue that either of those things are true…
< braddelong.substack.com/p/ok-jay-pow... >
2024-07-10 Tu 2/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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OK, Jay Powell: Precisely Which Inflation Numbers Do You Wish to See "More of"? Exactly which do you need to see more of because they are not rapidly approaching target right now? What happened to skating to where the puck will be? The only reasons for monetary policy not to be near-neutral... 1/
1 replies 8 reposts 21 likes
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...the paywall; before 1870 the Malthusian Devil cometh, but maybe not for 500 years; & Weekly Briefly Noted for 2024-07-05 Fr…
< braddelong.substack.com/p/weekly-bri... >
2024-07-10 Tu 2/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-07-10 We It is very hard to argue either that r* has risen or that r* does not matter for stabilization policy; François Chollet has an adult version of my baby-comprehension take on MAMLMs; very briefly noted; my New York Times Musk piece comes out from behind... 1/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...entirely predatory, and transitory but multi-hundred-year periods of lower-class prosperity driving the demographic expansion of Hellenes. But it was not an escape…
< braddelong.substack.com/p/before-187... >
2024-07-06 Sa 4/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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... themselves Hellenes, substantial improvements in capital intensity and in the commercial division of labor, boosts in conveniences and luxuries production that elude the Malthusian logic, a softer and more equal distribution of ill-gotten wealth within an élite that (for once) was not... 3/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...down by population growth. But I see it very differently. The Devil of Malthus, back before 1870, would always arrive in the long run. And 200 years is, in this context, only a medium run. Greek "efflorescence" was very real—a huge 1200-year boost in the population of those calling... 2/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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Before 1870, the Malthusian Devil Comes Back the Very Next... Half Millennium, at Best Was ancient Greece truly an escape from the Malthusian trap? No! Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson argue that classical Greece defied Malthusian dynamics, with real incomes rising without being dragged back... 1/
1 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...Wills on Pat Buchanan back in 1992; reviewing John Ganz’s When the Clock Broke: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-06-27 Th…
< braddelong.substack.com/p/weekly-bri...
2024-07-05 Fr 5/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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... vote shifts in a close election are unimportant; & office hours: six questions; my Project Syndicate review of Dan Davies’s The Unaccountability Machine; Slouching on Sean Kenny’s podcast; notes, columns, & papers for June 2024; Dan Drezner: the choice is Biden or Harris; READING: Garry... 4/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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... summarization engines?; the belief that expansionary fiscal policy has boosted r* right now is incoherent; looking for a good course on management cybernetics & its management-consultant friends; all the PCE numbers see inflation at target right now; the New York Times fake-pretends that... 3/
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...not shown he can do anything other than read off a teleprompter; presidential immunity is the most unoriginalist idea ever; Martin Wolf on how democracy hangs in the balance this year; good inflation indices say there is no “last mile” inflation problem; how good or useful are GPT LLMs as... 2/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-07-05 Fr Richard Baldwin on shifts in globalization; Neil Dutta on the likelihood the Fed’s high-rate policy will choke the economy; the truly extraordinary dysfunctional ego of Yale law professor Akhil Reed Amar; very briefly noted; In seven days now Biden has... 1/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...system must accomplish, the importance of delegation and of feedback loops...
< braddelong.substack.com/p/project-sy... >
2024-07-02 Tu 4/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...at least build boats that can be steered. I derive four key ideas from the book: accountability sinks, only systems that both function & survive persist, the five subtasks—action, logistics, short-term adjustment, balancing here-and-now off against there-and-then, and philosophy—every... 3/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...societal systems are making us rich but unhappy as they have become uncontrollable leviathans—massive social and technological mechanisms that are failing us. Management cybernetics might—might—be built into something that can offer us solutions: might teach us how to steer the boats, or to... 2/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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PROJECT SYNDICATE: How Humanity Lost Control: A REVIEW of Dan Davies: "The Unaccountability Machine: Why Big Systems Make Terrible Decisions – And How the World Lost Its Mind" For Project Syndicate <project-syndicate.org>: the unaccountability machines we have built, or how our complex... 1/
1 replies 2 reposts 3 likes
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...to rest on an appallingly narrow theoretical and a relatively narrow—because present-economy only—empirical base. You had a much longer baseline with economic history…
< braddelong.substack.com/p/brad-delon... >
2024-07-01 Mo 2/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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Brad DeLong & Sean Kenny: "Slouching Towards Utopia" on the Economic History Podcast 49:29: How did I get into this business? Taking a course from Barry Eichengreen when I was an undergraduate impressed me that economic history was a lot more interesting than mainstream economics—which seemed... 1/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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READING: Origins of Present-Day Neofascism: Garry Wills on Pat Buchanan, from February 1992
Apropos of John Ganz's new book When the Clock Broke: Con Men, Conspiracists, & How America Cracked Up in the Early 1990s...
< braddelong.substack.com/p/reading-or... >
2024-06-29 Sa
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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Would anyone who is not a lawyer ever imagine that she could claim that lawyerness is something you lose when you stop paying your State Bar dues?
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...went from embracing the promise of prosperity and—at least theoretically—equal opportunity to today’s darker political reality in which it seeks leaders who will deliver pain to its perceived enemies, foreign and especially domestic…
< braddelong.substack.com/p/how-the-ea... >
2024-06-27 2/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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How the Early 1990s Shaped Modern American Neofascism: Reviewing John Ganz: "When the Clock Broke: Con Men, Conspiracists, & How America Cracked Up in the Early 1990s" Technological progress, economic disillusionment, and the rise of paleoconservatism and neofascism: how American conservatism... 1/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...
< braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-no... >
2024-06-27 Th 3/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...listen to their equity investors; & Noah Needs Nuance! hexapodia podcast; MOAR management cybernetics; management cybernetics as a way to escape neoliberal straitjackets; Teles responds; do conservative political scientists have VAR?; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-06-21 Fr… 2/
1 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-06-27 Th
Chinese-made EVs; Rivian Autos investor day; very briefly noted; David Guarino on making calfresh.org; naughty Eric Hobsbawm; Dan Drezner on the “untrained” Harvard dean Lawrence Bobo; Dan Davies on how companies doing badly in the stock market should not... 1/
1 replies 1 reposts 2 likes
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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Noah Needs Nuance!
Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...
< braddelong.substack.com/p/podcast-he... >
2024-06-25 Tu
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...the machines we fear most are the ones we've already built.…
< braddelong.substack.com/p/a-return-o... >
2024-06-24 Mo 3/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...bounced the 1400-word compressed version. So here is THE WHOLE CURRENT THING: By reviving the ideas of cybernetics pioneer Stafford Beer, Davies suggests we can build organizations that are not just efficient, but truly accountable. In an age of AI anxiety and institutional mistrust, The... 2/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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A Return of "Management Cybernetics" as a Way Forward Out of Economics-Based Neoliberalism? I signed up to write an 800-word review of Dan Davies’s brand-new The Unaccountability Machine. The problem is that what I now have is more than 5000 words. And the publication it was for has just... 1/
2 replies 6 reposts 14 likes
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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"The Professional Soldier"?
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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Is there a good review essay on why people like it so much?
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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Reading "Soldier & the State". Conflict between liberal American commercial & conservative military professional values. Waiting for Huntington to note that of first 33 presidents through Eisenhower, we had 10 generals & 3 colonels—military success a powerful source of political mojo...
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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Not really. Only sideswipes:
* www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/fouc...
* www.bradford-delong.com/2006/06/depa...
* braddelong.substack.com/p/hoisted-fr...
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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Thx! Tell me more!
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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Thx. much... So I should move "The Soldier & the State" above "Political Order in Changing Societies" in the pile?
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...authors but turns them into his sock-puppets, or quite possibly worse because I see him as inheriting the imperial, authoritarian, fascist leanings of his Straussian teachers...
< braddelong.substack.com/p/response-s... >
2024-06-22 Sa 3/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...Huntington, but want to read The Soldier & the State & re-read Political Order in Changing Societies before I raise the white flag. On Banfield I reserve judgment until I read City Politics. And as for Mansfield—god no; a fungus, like Althusser and Derrida, who is not a guide to other... 2/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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RESPONSE: Steve Teles: James Q. Wilson, Sam Huntington, Ned Banfield, & Harvey Mansfield Do too Have VAR as Political Scientists My re-response? I concede with respect to Wilson & his Bureaucracy & quite possibly more. I anticipate conceding with respect to early-period (not late-period!)... 1/
2 replies 2 reposts 6 likes
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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... get down to empirical cases of really-existing conservatives past & present...
< braddelong.substack.com/p/is-harvard... >
2024-06-22 Sa 2/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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Is Harvard's Government Department Really Weaker Today Because of the Absence of Analogues to Ned Banfield, James Wilson, Samuel Huntington, & Harvey Mansfield? Steve Teles's pleas for help in fighting "academic sectarianism" seem convincing to me in abstract, but unconvincing to me when we... 1/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...weekly briefly noted for 2024-06-15 Sa...
< braddelong.substack.com/p/weekly-bri... >
2024-06-21 Fr 4/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...Krugman says: soft landing achieved; & Lucidity on "AI" investments considered harmful; the great Agrarian-Age vine-&-figtree shortage; reviewing Blinder's "Monetary & Fiscal History"; Joe Wiesenthal praises my "Slouching Towards Utopia"; Isaac Asimov on dominionist ethnonationalism; &... 3/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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...PerplexityAI is a lying liar, in many senses; services-led economic development appears a forlorn hope; be sure to count all of the costs of geoengineering when you think about it!; right-wing global-warming denier hyena-hack Holman Jenkins is truly deranged in his takes on Elon Musk; Paul... 2/
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-06-21 Fr Jason Furman on how to properly worry about the U.S. national debt; Paul Krugman on the end of the claim that jobless Americans are “zero marginal product workers”; very briefly noted; Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs says: soft landing achieved... 1/
1 replies 1 reposts 3 likes
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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:-)
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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... wasting resources on superficial AI projects just for show, focus on shoring up your core operations and culture…
< braddelong.substack.com/p/reading-lu... >
2024-06-20 Th 3/END
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Brad DeLong
@delong.bsky.social
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... handful of businesses who know exactly what you're going to use AI for, you probably don't need to do anything at all. Focus on business fundamentals, not shiny objects. AI may change everything, or it may not. But most companies' tepid preparations will be futile either way. Rather than... 2/
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