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Jonn Elledge@jonnelledge.bsky.social |
Okay, so this thing where whatever the polling industry does, it seems, they never quite get Labour's voteshare right: Is it possible there's a sort of Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle thing? The very act of measuring Labour's vote share moves the polls?
4 replies 1 reposts 20 likes
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Arun Niranjan
@arun-niranjan.bsky.social
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This is technically less of a quantum mechanic thing, and more of a graph modelling problem with a cycle IMO
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Adam Drummond
@adamdrummond.bsky.social
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Honestly this is as good an explanation as I've seen
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Jonn Elledge
@jonnelledge.bsky.social
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If Labour are doing really well (1997, 2024), fewer people vote Labour, because a lot of them are doing it to get the Tories out. If Labour are doing badly (2010, 2017), they get sympathy votes drifting back.
2 replies 1 reposts 12 likes
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Catnip
@catnipxword.bsky.social
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I think so, yes. If the party's comfortably winning, it's easy to indulge your preference for the Tooting Popular Front as a protest against Labour policy on bin collections. If it's way behind, the prospect of unfettered Tory power probably focuses a few minds.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes