Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar

Ariel Edwards-Levy

@aedwardslevy.bsky.social

6148 followers 343 following 1444 posts

Polling editor at CNN, keeping (cross)tabs on public opinion and the news. I like puns.

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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this is a subtweet

4 replies 20 reposts 139 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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"why are there so many bylines on ______" is perpetually the dumbest hit on what usually turns out to be some version "we properly credited devs/data people/editors/researchers/etc."

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Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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"make like a decision tree" was right there

1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes

Reposted by Ariel Edwards-Levy

Stephen Wolf's avatar Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social
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AP: ‘This is break glass in case of emergency stuff': Analysts alarmed by threats to US data gathering

1 replies 50 reposts 116 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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why don't you make like a sample and split

3 replies 1 reposts 19 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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(extremely British pollster voice) on a scale of Starmer to Stolder, where 100 is Starmest and 0 is Stoldest

0 replies 1 reposts 10 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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orange you glad I didn't ask a long battery of Likert scales again

2 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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types of survey questions to include in message testing for my candidacy as president of the fruit orchard*: -peared statements -select-all-that-apple -branching questions -a tree/dis a tree *look just go with the concept here

3 replies 0 reposts 14 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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i know this is dumb but let me have my fleeting amusement at the phrase "polling Poland" (people occasionally mishear me when I mention my beat and ask if I get to go to Warsaw)

4 replies 1 reposts 16 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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this has nothing to do with anything but have I mentioned my conviction that Dua Lipa's "Dont Start Now" is secretly about an Elf On The Shelf

1 replies 1 reposts 12 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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was sort of hoping this was going to be about whether the people demand humid candidates

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Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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candidate favorability ratings should get "feels like" adjustments to account for the various effects of serving in DC (name recognition, humidity, etc.)

0 replies 2 reposts 13 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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GSS, 1996, asked of those who said they ever felt like they were going to have a nervous breakdown (26%): "What did you do about it (the nervous breakdown you felt you were going to have)?"

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Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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Gallup, 1947, asked of those who said they could be happier (70%): "How could you be happier?"

2 replies 1 reposts 3 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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"While some voters mentioned the topics that often top voters’ lists [of] most important issues – the economy, immigration or a commitment to democracy – others were more focused on character and personal traits [like] honesty, ability to handle the job and perceived motivations."

0 replies 1 reposts 4 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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once brewed coffee using previously made coffee in the place of water and I'm not going to say I recommend it but at that moment in time it did what it was intended to do

8 replies 3 reposts 46 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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Top-issue questions are useful, but they don't always capture the full range of how voters draw distinctions between candidates -- which may not be about policy at all.

Here, we asked about the most important difference between Biden and Trump:
www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/p...

1 replies 7 reposts 18 likes

Reposted by Ariel Edwards-Levy

Opinion Today's avatar Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social
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CNN Poll: Voters favor Trump over Biden by 6 points, 49% to 43%, identical to the results of CNN’s national poll on the presidential race in April, and consistent with the lead Trump has held in CNN polling back to last fall.
(Jennifer Agiesta & @aedwardslevy.bsky.social)
www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/p...

0 replies 2 reposts 1 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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obviously it's now "ob-law-di" but I have not gotten farther than that

1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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this is excellent but why did I start reading the first line to "obladi oblada" instead

1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes

Reposted by Ariel Edwards-Levy

Eric Roston's avatar Eric Roston @eroston.bsky.social
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[To "Me and Julio Down by the School Yard"] Whoa-oa, in a couple of days they'd opine away But the court let the story leak When the radical word Was posted online by some nerd They was all on the cover of Bloomberg

1 replies 1 reposts 2 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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[extremely singin' in the rain voice] scotus discloses the way the case goeses/but scotus discloses erroneously

8 replies 35 reposts 137 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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who among us has not, perhaps at a dinner party, accidentally issued an opinion

1 replies 3 reposts 33 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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pollsters can have a little survey experiment, as a treat

0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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if the other half of AAPOR members aren't getting a version of this email WITHOUT these phrases, I am disappointed in you all

1 replies 0 reposts 10 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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ANY fruit or vegetable is a bold claim, I would like to see them try this with a raspberry

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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(seeing a hydroelectric power plant for the first time) hot dam

2 replies 2 reposts 33 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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Obligatory sidenote that it sounds like the issues with the survey here are about methodological transparency, sponsorship, questionnaire design and probably representativeness, but that "online polls" covers a huge range of survey work and is not inherently suspect as a category.

1 replies 4 reposts 19 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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in fairness I refuse to buy an iPhone

1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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as restaurant criticism........truly ribbiting

2 replies 0 reposts 9 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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phone autocorrect tried to get me to write the phrase "farmer's market research" which coincidentally is what I call getting a bunch of little fruit samples

3 replies 2 reposts 31 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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who would like to buy some lovely rutabagas (this is, improbably, a subtweet)

2 replies 0 reposts 4 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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WITCH 1: double double, toil and—how much newt did you say was supposed to be in this arcane elixir again WITCH 2: eh, just eyeball it

2 replies 1 reposts 24 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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"i'm morley safer" "i'm lesley stahl" "and I'm just-about-the-right-amount-of-ley—"

2 replies 5 reposts 41 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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i haven't clicked through yet, but absolutely cackling at the phrase "psephologists' delight"

1 replies 2 reposts 4 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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no longer allowed to find cool data right when I'm intending to leave the office

2 replies 0 reposts 15 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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Just remembered that Pew Research very kindly makes their older datasets available...look at the education and ideology splits on this!

1 replies 0 reposts 17 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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This is such a great survey question (and yes, this is something ironic about having two binary response categories, but nevertheless)

5 replies 8 reposts 30 likes

Ariel Edwards-Levy's avatar Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social
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Not every day you see this little of a partisan gap on something related to both Biden and immigration (reflects, of course, both unusually low Dem support and low GOP opposition)
www.monmouth.edu/polling-inst...

0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes