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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Final conventional JL Partners poll.
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Alastair Meeks@alastairmeeks.bsky.social |
359 followers 76 following 2003 posts
Lawyer, writer, Zedra
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Final conventional JL Partners poll.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Penny Mordaunt has shortened dramatically for next Conservative leader on Betfair. An indication that someone is confident she'll keep her seat?
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Notable that the newspapers realise what might be coming for them. The most abject government in living memory cannot be wholly disavowed.
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Norstat final poll. Labour 37% Cons 24% Reform 16% Lib Dems 11% Greens 6%
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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NB
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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I think we’re only waiting for Ipsos now. Any other polls due?
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Final JL Partners SRP. Labour 442 Cons 111 Lib Dems 58 SNP 15 PC 3 Greens 1 Reform 1
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Last Deltapoll before the election. Labour 39 Cons 22 Reform 17 Lib Dems 10 Greens 7
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Bookmark this, courtesy of @pulpstar on X.
Your evening's schedule, complete with MRP predictions so you can judge how the evening is going.
Part 1
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
1 replies 5 reposts 14 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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It's likely that one or some polls will be pretty accurate. It's likely that one, or some, will be some way adrift. I'm not assuming that I can waft divining rods over them to decide which is in which category in advance. I'm keeping a very open mind.
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Implied vote share.
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Final YouGov MRP Labour: 431 Cons 102 Lib Dems 72 SNP 18 Reform 3 PC 3 Greens 2
1 replies 4 reposts 7 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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I have my reservations about the usefulness of wordclouds, but this one, my word.
1 replies 6 reposts 16 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Final WeThink poll. Another bump in the Conservative ratings. A true dead cat bounce by the looks of things. Labour 41 Cons 23 Reform 15 Lib Dems 11 Greens 7
2 replies 1 reposts 7 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Focaldata MRP Labour 444 Cons 108 Lib Dems 57 SNP 15 PC 2 Reform 2 Greens 1
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Final Opinium.
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Last Whitestone poll. Again, Conservatives up a bit. Labour 38% Cons 21% Lib Dems 10% Reform: 18% Greens 7%
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Implied vote shares: Labour 39% Cons 23% Lib Dems 14% Reform 13% Greens 6%
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Final More In Common MRP Labour 430 Cons 126 Lib Dems 52 SNP 16 Reform 2 Greens 1 PC 2 OTH 2
1 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Last BMG poll. Notable closing between Labour and the Conservatives (still a big gap). Labour 39% Cons 22% Reform 16% Lib Dems 11% Greens 7%
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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And part 3.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Part 2, from c2.30 onwards:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Bookmark this, courtesy of @pulpstar on X.
Your evening's schedule, complete with MRP predictions so you can judge how the evening is going.
Part 1
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
1 replies 5 reposts 14 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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I choose my verbs carefully.
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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People Polling have opined. Labour 36% Reform 20% Cons 16% Lib Dems 10% Green 9%
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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I've said a few times over the last few months that a carthorse will beat a three-legged donkey by more than a champion racehorse will beat an average thoroughbred. Sir Keir Starmer isn't a carthorse but a gigantic victory over the current Tory party won't by itself show he's a thoroughbred.
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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To his point on UNS being impossible when a party loses vote share in big enough swings, I'd add that this time specifically UNS cannot work because Reform stood selectively in 2019 and are standing near enough everywhere in 2024, to the detriment of the Conservatives.
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Excellent article from Chris Hanretty on the Survation MRP.
www.chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/why_wa...
1 replies 2 reposts 5 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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New Survation just in. Labour 38% Cons 18% Reform 17% Lib Dems 11% Green 7% It's not immediately clear what the eyeballing was about. NB both Labour and the Conservatives are 4% lower than on Survation's own MRP, released yesterday.
2 replies 3 reposts 12 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Do the Conservatives know that expectations management isn't a thing for general elections? Because if they do, what kind of seat count are they actually now expecting? 60?
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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I find it particularly rich that people accuse the Lib Dems of gaming the system when they've merely responded to the rules of a game that they don't think any of us should be playing.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Different systems have different attributes. While I'm not a huge proponent of FPTP, one of its best features is that the public can kick out the bums. There are plenty of departing Tories who I have no desire to see in public life. That's a valid opinion for voters to be able to express.
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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One of the great benefits of First Past The Post is that it enables voters to kick out the bums. Tomorrow should be cathartic for a lot of people. There will be a lot of talk about disproportionality, but that will overlook a central desire of much of the electorate to punish the incumbents.
1 replies 2 reposts 13 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Why? People vote against parties as much as they vote for them. They did in 2017 and 2019, they will in 2024.
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Survation have dropped hints that they've seen a polling move in the raw data. They haven't said what.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Here it is. The Conservatives do seem to be getting a dead cat bounce right at the end of the campaign.
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Reports of a Techne poll showing: Westminster voting intention Labour 40% Cons 21% Reform 16% Lib Dems 11% Greens 6% I assume it's genuine, it's too unsurprising to make up.
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Labour 38 Cons 19 Reform 18 Lib Dems 12 Greens 8
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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A write-up of a final poll from Lord Ashcroft.
Labour 38
Cons 19
Reform 18
Others not stated.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Given the mood music coming from the Conservative camp (comparisons with 1931?), anyone betting on them getting over 100 seats is brave/foolhardy.
0 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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The implied vote share is notable. Labour 42.2 Con 22.8 Reform 12.2 Lib Dems 11.5 Greens 5.4 Reform are much lower than in most conventional polls.
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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It's only in 2017 that the Conservatives got more than 1 for the first time since 1992.
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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I missed this Welsh poll yesterday.
Labour 40%
Cons 16%
Reform 16%
PC 14%
Lib Dems 7%
Green 5%
www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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It doesn't seem to have been noticed that almost all recent Scottish polling implies almost all Tory seats there will be lost.
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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New Savanta Scotland-only poll showing the SNP in the lead. SNP 34 Labour 31 Con 15 Lib Dems 9 Reform 6 Green 3
1 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Final Verian poll. Labour notably low.
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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New Survation MRP. Labour 484 Con 64 Lib Dems 61 SNP 10 Reform 7 PC 3 Green 3
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
[ View ] |
NB
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
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Redfield & Wilton megapoll. Labour 41 Con 22 Reform 16 Lib Dems 10 Greens 6 There definitely seems to be some move back to the Conservatives.
2 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Alastair Meeks
@alastairmeeks.bsky.social
[ View ] |
You'll hear a lot about late swing in the next few days as everyone tries to keep things interesting. Here's why it probably won't be happening.
0 replies 6 reposts 12 likes