Alexander Hoyle

Michael Hobbes @michaelhobbes.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 21, 2024 at 02:03 UTC

if a computer told you how fucking stupid this is would you believe it
twitter.com/emollick/sta...

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 21, 2024 at 04:15 UTC

Oh, a friend's show also just had an ep about it---he said the director's recent high-contrast black and white cut worked better than the original (sorry if you mention this in the ep! haven't listened yet)

wondery.com/shows/eye-of...

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 20, 2024 at 15:47 UTC

As someone working in NLP and social science, my skin crawls at the idea of “in silico” subjects from LLMs. People aren’t truss bridges you can stress test in SolidWorks! There is no link between model and real-world subject

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 12, 2024 at 03:33 UTC

Apple Silicon already has dedicated “neural engines” for ML. Going forward, I assume the main consumer uses would be, eg, a local chatbot using your own data

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 12, 2024 at 03:32 UTC

I’m an AI researcher and I regularly use my Mac to run models locally—albeit not training unless it’s small prototypes. It’s possible to compress the big models (in fact a pioneer of the technique gave his job talk today!) the one nice outcome of AI hype is that the hobbyist tooling is quite good

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 11, 2024 at 22:28 UTC

was about to say “mine too”, then realized where Adam would have picked up this principle

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Feb 23, 2024 at 18:05 UTC

The recent New Yorker piece where he features heavily gave an interesting perspective

www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Feb 07, 2024 at 22:09 UTC

the last time i had fried chicken in a bucket it was actually ice cream coated in corn flakes. fakery!!!

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 29, 2024 at 22:23 UTC

Also, for research assistants, if a codebook is unclear you just can just refine it by taking to them. But yes, if your estimator is unbiased, then I don't have a problem in principle with a black box model

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 29, 2024 at 22:11 UTC

Yeah, I don't know that I really agree with Emily here For me, it's that I suspect the sources of bias and variation for people are likely to be categorically different than that of LLMs, in ways that aren't necessarily captured by high-level scoring metrics. (I could be wrong)

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 29, 2024 at 17:21 UTC

What is in the water in Amsterdam?? For my dissertation I've been reading these excellent critical papers on measurement and validation and so many authors have a connection to UvA

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15482073/

www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 29, 2024 at 17:00 UTC

I agree that humans also rely on heuristics, and results from lazy annotator(s) may also be incorrect. I guess the question is how we regard the errors: is one preferable in some way? (eg, if I'm annotating sentiment, are my systematic errors more reflective of the construct than those of an LLM)?

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 29, 2024 at 16:56 UTC

To your second point, my assumption is that LLMs are more likely to be biased by spurious heuristics that systematically affect downstream conclusions. In the ideal case, I think humans disagreements stem from genuine ambiguity. Wondering if it's sort of a bias-variance tradeoff (...cont.)

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 29, 2024 at 16:56 UTC

Variable-specific test sets make sense. That said, if using summary metrics alone (eg, F1), then I don't think test set size should have any bearing on ease of bias detection (...cont.)

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 26, 2024 at 17:11 UTC

My main concern is that the nature of disagreements between the LLM and human may be very different than those between two humans Comparing agreement metrics between human-human and human-LLM is a good start, but they could hide fine-grained systematic LLM biases (e.g., spurious lexical influences)

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 23, 2024 at 19:47 UTC

I also appreciated that it was not relentlessly bleak? There are moments of hopefulness in The Last of Us, but the overall perspective is pretty grim Also I'm now grateful to be a Himesh Patel stan

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 23, 2024 at 18:16 UTC

Yes, I've thought the same thing! I don't know why it didn't get more attention/acclaim. (And in this era of abundance, a one-season miniseries is very welcome)

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 13, 2024 at 05:29 UTC

Right, and in most cases, I don't think it should? $35k is, incidentally, the median individual income in NYC, not exactly a low CoL area. I mean, yeah, there's some truth in saying that most New Yorkers are struggling---but half the people can evidently afford to live there on less than $35k

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 13, 2024 at 04:40 UTC

...but I think the important point is that the terms of the debate have changed. The policy shifts student debt from actual "peonage" to being a progressive tax You've made the case the $35k threshold should be higher. That's a different kind of argument than the one happening before the policy

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 13, 2024 at 04:34 UTC

Look, I think we all agree that there is inherent value in education and that it ought to be low-cost. The question is the proportion of the tax paid by society vs. the individual. You want more paid by society and, tbh, I'm with you. We need more state support... (cont.)

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 12, 2024 at 22:54 UTC

I mean, I live in DC, have loans, and that's my exact salary. I guess I think of it like a payment plan for something I purchased, like a car? To be clear, yes, I'm in a very privileged position (field with job prospects, access to internships,...) But to my mind, housing costs are the Big Problem

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 12, 2024 at 22:40 UTC

It's 5% of income less $35k and is adjusted for dependents. To me the need for a roommate in a high-CoL area is not the fault of these loan payments. In the setup I described the loan is less than 6% of rent

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 12, 2024 at 22:13 UTC

I don't really see what the problem is with what amounts to an income sharing agreement. You earn more, so you pay more. It's a progressive tax! That's good policy!

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 12, 2024 at 22:12 UTC

My dude. You're about this close to sounding like a libertarian braying "taxation is theft!" Different scenario: you graduated with a $100k loan, start off at $40k/year, 4% wage growth You paid $36k over 20 years and the gov cut you a check for the other $64k. Sure sounds like a bargain to me

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 12, 2024 at 21:47 UTC

It depends, but if you borrow <$12k it's forgiven after ten years (every additional $1k borrowed adds a year, capped at 20 years total). In this scenario, if their annual salary increases by 1%/year, and assuming 5.5% interest, after 10 years they'd have paid $6k total and be forgiven ~$10k

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 12, 2024 at 21:25 UTC

It doesn't matter for my argument. The principal doesn't influence the monthly payment Second, most debt balances are <$10k. I was imagining someone who dropped out but still owed. Typically, they are most affected by student debt because they don't get the increased earning potential of a degree

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 12, 2024 at 16:39 UTC

You're $10k in debt and make $20/hour in Atlanta That's ~$40k/year or $720 over the typical expenses from the MIT living wage estimate, which puts rent at $1100/mo (promise I didn't cherry-pick!) SAVE repayments are $60/month. So you need to lower your monthly expenses by $8. Seems doable?

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Alexander Hoyle @alexanderhoyle.bsky.social [ View ] Jan 06, 2024 at 15:59 UTC

🐣

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