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Aubrey Gilleran@aubreygilleran.bsky.social |
I don't know what to say. Biden was trending slightly upward before the debate and had even narrowly overtaken Trump in the 538 averages, but he has declined two points since. It's that movement, even if it's slight, that's freaking people out. Because it needed to go the other way.
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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There are plenty of reasons to question polls. I do it all the time! But that's why you need to look at averages, and a bunch of different pollsters are all showing the same thing: consistent concerns about Biden's fitness among voters and movement away from him among undecideds.
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Joshua Foust 🪖🎮
@joshuafoust.com
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You’re describing movement well within the MOE for these surveys. Neither you nor I have any idea what the real movement is. If the debate really was his campaign’s death knell, we’d see significant movement not microscopic changes that might just be statistical noise.
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