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Aubrey Gilleran@aubreygilleran.bsky.social |
516 followers 261 following 6161 posts
Episcopalian | North Carolinian | father | husband | English teacher | liberal | IG: @aubreygilleran
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Polling evidence can’t tell you the future. And I think that’s what a lot of people crave. And it could be that literally no Democrat could beat Trump because people are angry about burger prices and car juice. But if age is the crucial factor, it’s the easiest one to solve with a younger candidate.
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Yes, them acting shocked that they didn’t have the NYT in their corner after all this time isn’t exonerative. This should have been known.
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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(Coincidentally, this is exactly what Harris did in her excellent post-debate interview.)
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Zoe Tunnell
@zoewithasword.bsky.social
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It is not Pessimistic or Unrealistic or anything to say that if the Republicans win in November the chances of HRT being outlawed for trans people entirely across the country is basically guaranteed And even it they lose, if nothing is done about The Supreme Court then it's still on the table
2 replies 17 reposts 57 likes
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Walter Olson
@walterolson.bsky.social
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Now up: my thoughts on Trump v. U.S. In my view the Court majority went much too far in creating a zone of formal and practical presidential immunity from criminal prosecution. "This is not what the Framers wanted. It is not what we should want either." www.cato.org/blog/court-w...
0 replies 5 reposts 6 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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I will hold the NYT in contempt for their coverage but it’s also a campaign’s job to push back on media narratives and create narratives of their own. Sulzberger wasn’t wrong when he said they can’t expect his paper to be part of the campaign.
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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If you can’t reassure Nancy Pelosi enough to get her to say something non-ambiguous (the president still hasn’t called her!), then it becomes a campaign issue, not just a media issue. Playing the media is part of comms.
2 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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“Joe had a bad night, but he’s still our guy, now let’s talk about Trump’s fascism” should have been the unified message, repeated constantly, and that kind of coordination needed to come from the campaign within hours. Instead, we were left with scattered statements, some ambiguous.
2 replies 1 reposts 9 likes
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Faine Greenwood
@faineg.bsky.social
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The ghouls are wasting no time on this
5 replies 48 reposts 97 likes
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Kaitlin Has Had Enough
@gothamgirlblue.com
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Desegregation is being unraveled. Separate but “equal” is being reestablished. We can be defensive, or we can step up and ask for more than the preservation of the status quo.
0 replies 56 reposts 169 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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(To be fair, Trump got a ton of these in 2016, too.)
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Oh, well, at least there won’t be a ton of headlines and clips of Democrats undermining the nominee publicly!
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Brittany Wilson
@sameoldstory.co
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This is not a “they just want clicks!” issue, unless you sincerely think putting “Trump” and “Epstein” in the same headline would generate no clicks
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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At the bare minimum, it shows he can’t get on the phone with his own damn party and tell them to stay on message, which just furthers the impression that he’s not fit enough to be behind the wheel.
0 replies 0 reposts 9 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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I think a lot of folks are scared that a Black woman will scare off white voters, and maybe they are right. The press will certainly be hard on her.
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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The problem, unfortunately, is a lot of Democratic donors and Members of Congress really take the NYT/Siena poll seriously. Cohn himself has warned them about making big political decisions based on his polls, but it doesn't matter. This might just further the panic.
2 replies 1 reposts 9 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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An election where a lot of people say they hate both candidates is one that will likely see a huge dropoff from 2020's historically high turnout. A lot of folks don't seem to be factoring that in.
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Emissary Of Night | ليلى
@diplomatofnight.com
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I wrote for More Perfect Union about the Biden administrations proposal to implement new protections for workers who are agonizing under extreme heat.
6 replies 34 reposts 94 likes
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M.P. Broache
@mpbroache.bsky.social
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“Politics would be interesting again,” no politics should not be interesting, normal people should not have to invest time and energy into saving democracy because our institutions are collapsing, give me boring, mundane politics any day
2 replies 8 reposts 37 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Right. He was so dominant as AG (didn't even get a GOP opponent once) that he turned down multiple opportunities and attempts to recruit him to run for governor and U.S. Senate. He ran against McCrory when he smelled blood.
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Did they vote in this year's primary? Or in 2022? I know there are some first-time voters in every election, but I really do think you need a track record to be LV.
2 replies 0 reposts 14 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Right, it's very hard to imagine exactly *what* he could do to change the narrative because the debate really did seem like a make-or-break moment.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Cooper not jumping in the 2020 fray when 20+ other Democrats did kind of shows that he's not really interested in the White House.
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Uncle Dude
@jurisdudence.bsky.social
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Trump favored among people who could've voted in 2020 but didn't for some reason.
3 replies 12 reposts 54 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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I mean, it's not like Cooper has stayed in North Carolina for these four years. Robinson hasn't tried anything yet.
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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If Harris/Cooper and and won, Cooper's term as governor would end on December 31, 2024, anyway, and either Robinson or Stein would be sworn in on January 1, 2025.
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Not sure what you mean. I'm only offering Cooper as a suggestion if Harris runs while Biden remains in the White House. She obviously can't ask him to leave office before 2025, or we'd get Robinson.
2 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Yeah, it's only relatively recently that former VPs were seen as "presumptive nominees." They used to just be plain types who wouldn't hurt the ticket and might offer some help in one region or another. Cooper fits that bill. He'd be a placeholder.
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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I don't think Cooper would run for president. Beshear might. So that offers the difference between the two. But then we're looking at 2032 at the earliest, so I wouldn't game it out that far.
2 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Katie Hobbs would appoint his replacement, who wouldn't have to run for reelection until 2026, I believe.
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Kevin M. Kruse
@kevinmkruse.bsky.social
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Mitch McConnell offers an object lesson for all the Republicans who think they can tame this tiger -- even if you do everything in your power to advance Trump's agenda and sabotage two different impeachment trials that would remove him, the Felon Messiah King will still demand your head.
21 replies 128 reposts 510 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Mark Kelly, Andy Beshear, or Roy Cooper.
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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TBF, they show that he has fully and completely consolidated conservative and Republican support, which is good. He's going to get 47-49% of the national popular vote no matter what. It'll all come down to how undecided voters view him.
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Kevin Collins
@kwcollins.bsky.social
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The answer to political anxiety is political organizing.
12 replies 114 reposts 453 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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I feel like if you're going to make that pitch, you need to step aside for her, but it seems like a lot of insiders and outsiders have a hard time trusting her.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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post malone ergo propter malone
@proptermalone.bsky.social
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even in this Biden is still winning >65s, by the way
2 replies 3 reposts 56 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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If this is true, it's going to be very, very hard for any candidate, even the perfect one pundits have in their mind, to overcome. Because it's arguable that Trump has the incumbency advantage here because voters, for some reason, remember his term as good times.
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Dan Murphy
@bungdan.bsky.social
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Presidential candidate who the far-right members of the Supreme Court just placed above the law tells voters how he will exercise his new powers.
25 replies 164 reposts 381 likes
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☕️ Jeremy Diamond
@dmnd.me
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The Manosphere Election
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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*think, not thing
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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I mean, if you believe polling, there's a real sense that voters thing *Trump* is uniquely competent and good with the economy (and is also socially moderate), while they also hate the GOP as a whole.
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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All they're doing it making him dropping out less likely. Worst elite pressure campaign ever.
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Micah
@rincewind.run
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the fact that the same people pushing Biden to drop out immediately are also proposing shit that wouldn't fly on The West Wing makes me think we need a complete and total shutdown of the nation's op-ed pages until we can figure out what's going on
19 replies 56 reposts 359 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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A turbulent summer! That's what you want to see!
0 replies 0 reposts 8 likes
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b-boy bouiebaisse
@jbouie.bsky.social
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the difference been pundits who have spent too much time huffing gasoline and journalists who are actually thinking through this with seriousness is whether they think having a contentious, brokered convention is less problematic than just going with biden's elected successor.
18 replies 46 reposts 293 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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(The sources in that article are donors; they're literally outside the house.)
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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LOL, wow, time is really fucking with me this summer.
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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I mean he also has to govern, and we're trying to stop a war between Israel and Lebanon from happening.
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Even when Pelosi went on TV to defend him and try to redirect back onto Trump's (very real) impairments, she had to admit that she hadn't spoken with Biden since the debate, and it had been a week. 2/2
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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Ideally, you'd have gotten, "I talked to Biden just last week. That's not the guy I saw up there. He was exhausted from travel and a cold" would have been an easy talking point. But they aren't making it because (by all accounts), he has been insular both before and after. 1/
2 replies 0 reposts 1 likes