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Richard Dixon@catinsight.bsky.social |
110 followers 52 following 29 posts
Director @ CatInsight | Visiting Research Fellow & PhD @ University of Reading | Associate Editor RMetS Weather Magazine | FRMetS | Probably eating noodle soup otherwise
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Well after early summer's bonkers MDR SSTs that warming mercifully has flopped. Still on for 2nd warmest MDR since 1981 if a climatological rate of warming continues, but the rate of warming post late May has been its lowest since 1981...[cherry-picking the warming from day 144 to day 188].
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Being a godawful coder, have been impressed at how much perplexity.ai has helped with python stuff. I even pointed towards a tricky multi-part question I'd put on Stack Overflow and nailed it first time. (I've no idea what is good/better AI-wise for coding but this is helping me a lot).
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Belated look at the Beryl's rapid intensification. Sea temps over the region it exploded more typical of Aug-Sept there: indeed only exceeded about 8 years since 1981 in Aug/Sept. Yes, you need a system in the first place, maybe less surprising it went bang given these SSTs...?
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Colour me intrigued: plotting the 23 Jun Main Dev't Region SST versus the delta between 23 Jun and the Aug-Oct mean MDR SST shows seemingly a (weakish) negative correlation. That what makes the MDR anomalously warm by June doesn't last all season?
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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A bit of fun taking the historical Main Development Region SSTs from 1982 onwards and using their onward behaviour up to the hurricane season to project forward from this year to see the range of warming possible based on historical behaviour. Long and short of it: another warm MDR this year.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Quite comfortable to comment (after an industry conference) that the (London) insurance industry is sleepwalking into a warm MDR / La Niña hurricane season through a mixture of lack of appropriate staff to be able to raise the alarm, or heads in the sand from those that make £$€ decisions. Tragic.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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A stab at where 2024's Main Dev't Region SST and ENSO index could be, couched in terms of Atlantic basin counts from post-1950 history and a climate model (d4pdf). Highlights how anomalous 2023 was and the sort of season we /could/ expect using historical / ensemble analogues.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Yep.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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For interest - ERA5 August MDR SSTs stacked up against DWD and ECMWF seasonal ensemble hindcasts from Feb going back to '93 & '81 respectively. Note how ECMWF undershoots every year (could be user error) & how both have warmest Aug SSTs ensemble mean going back to start of hindcast record in 2024...
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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I guess we're up in that top left corner again this hurricane season...
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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I realise my reach on here is miniscule, but if you're headed to EGU 2024 and working in the disaster risk space in academia or industry then take a look at Tom Philp's session that I'm a co-convenor on. All details on the attached image plus a QR code. Abstracts welcome!
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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All those air miles aaaaaand.... well done everyone. www.independent.co.uk/climate-chan...
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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All the private sector can face-off to pay for the catering.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Two thoughts on Otis. Were the seas over which Otis intensified remarkably warm for the time of year? Top chart: nope, not really. 14 of last 42 years were as warm. But looking at the longer-term trend (bottom chart), yep, die is loaded towards warmer seas (and rapid intensification?) these days.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Meanwhile here in the UK, our government is blaming "rain from the East where we're usually prepared for it when it comes from the West" for their abysmal response to recent flooding.
Luckily, this magnificent collection of dimwits will be voted out next year.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-p...
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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This week I've been mainly having "fun" frightening myself looking at alternative ways of calculating time-varying hurricane risk.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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As if to goad us in this year of silly warmth, the Main Development Region SST has spent the last 11 days ambling roughly upward again...
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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(Yes, I'm a miserable old cynic these days).
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Still amazes me how "climate change is all wrapped into our model results" seems to have been accepted by a fair chunk of our industry seemingly without question. So many look to these vendors to guide them and in some cases, they're failing. Or too scared to put numbers up because: license fees.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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A favourite answer of mine was "you can using our model but we've just not worked out how to share it with our client base yet". (Narrator's voice: you couldn't see how present-day climate change was accounted for).
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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I guess at least our inaccessible healthcare is free.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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One of the main hills I'll die on about a career - any career - is never to refer to yourself as an expert: it's only something someone else can bestow on you.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Didn't realise you'd relocated to the UK.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Wonder how long it'll be before I don't have to bother putting this in presentations to insurance folk.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Ready to accept it's now autumn now I can only see one ensemble member above 20c beyond this week.
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Applying the cooling degree day philosophy to late summer warmth in the UK (using a base of 20c - and using celsius) for September onwards. Used peak ERA5 daily maximum in the UK. Shows the Sept exceptionally warm spell well. Data up to Oct 1st but given the last few days this'll continue to rise...
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Have to admit I'm just popping my head in here but it seems very nice. And here's something that's intriguing me: does the hangover from a warm Atlantic Hurricane Season have a downstream impact on the early-season European Windstorm loss? These are results from 6000 years of simulations. Maybe?
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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You're the pied piper of cat risk [not sure if this is an entirely English thing you'll have to look up].
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Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
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Familiar faces! Hello there.
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