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Elle@centristmum.bsky.social |
241 followers 557 following 1610 posts
Charity worker, mum of two, Lib Dem and naturalised Yorkshire citizen
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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While I am flattered that 'presentable and sane' is now Lib Dem coded, I think it's important to distinguish between that and 'actually aligned with the Liberal Democrats'
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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God that 2015 group was cursed wasn't it. Amazed Sarah Olney didn't run away screaming tbh.
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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I think jacket and jeans and comfy shoes counts as smart!
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Tbh even as an activist at the count I'm always v conscious that someone might take a photo of me so try to look smartish and keep a neutral or positive expression (chocolate covered coffee beans and haribo tangfastics help with this)
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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If I was the MP I reckon I could stretch to a jacket and some dry-cleaning!
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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I have small kids who enjoy baking, all my jumpers are crusty!
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Yep with hindsight it was the first crack in the blue wall
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Genuinely think if we'd called it the west coast mainline relief line we'd have avoided all this trouble
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Something like that. See eg www.spectator.co.uk/article/gavi...
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Ohhhh you missed the Reform shenanigans sub-plot! Classic Gav move that one!
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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All the chat in the Tory leadership seems to be about Jenrick and... I know they elected Truss but they can't be *that* mad can they?
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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You mean like High Speed T*shot rings out*
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Wouldn't put it past her
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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She's clearly the frontrunner but she is very fighty and may get into trouble. And I think they might want a safe pair of hands.
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Tory Dad is voting for Cleverly but thinks it's Badenoch's to lose.
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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I am very glad that he did that for you and also to see a little of the human side, which is so easy to forget sometimes.
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Totally vibes-based theory on the Tory leadership contest They have felt leaderless and abandoned during the campaign. They will vote for the candidate who makes them feel like the grownups are back in charge. I think that means Cleverly.
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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I think a long contest will count against her - she comes across as arrogant and unlikeable and the longer that is to the fore the worse for her.
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Best guess on this one is that it's an area where people define themselves in opposition to the Labour-dominated area they are grouped with - like Outer London - and that makes the Toryism a bit stickier? Plus good constituency work and maybe the former Lab MP/now candidate was not liked?
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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They also need to positive deviance the hell out of Robbie Moore
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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He was on 70-1 for next Tory leader this morning which in my view is much too long
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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I think a combination of 1. Take the threat seriously, early 2. Actually being okay at politics 3. Being a diligent local MP 4. Targeting 5. Name recognition as chancellor 6. One nation vibes
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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In international development we sometimes use a type of study called positive deviance to develop project ideas ("why does this lady have the best pigs") and the Tories should definitely do an in-depth positive deviance study on Jeremy Hunt
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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(obviously his antisemitic denial of the October 7 atrocity was awful and the LDs were right to kick him out but I don't think that has any bearing on how diligent he'll be on casework)
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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The House of Commons provides support and training and I don't think there's any reason to assume these MPs will be less diligent than any other. Local Councillor Ayoub Khan is not comparable to Galloway or Farage!
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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(I have a theory about what it is about Gaza that's different 🤔🤔🤔)
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Obviously Galloway was useless and didn't bother but it absolutely does not follow that the same will be true of longstanding local councillor Ayoub Khan, for example. Or maybe it will be! But that's also true of major party candidates!
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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"well these people might want to make a point about corruption by electing Martin Bell but they'll soon be sorry when he doesn't sort their housing won't they hmmm hmmm" said absolutely fucking no-one. What is it about Gaza that's different?
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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I really dislike the assumption that the Gaza independents will all be shit constituency MPs - why on earth would we assume that. No one thought that about the Kidderminster Hospital guy did they? And it's not like all major party MPs are any good at that stuff either is it.
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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This is true but I do dislike the implication that they'll somehow all be terrible constituency MPs because they were elected on a foreign policy platform. Loads of major party MPs are absolutely useless and I don't think the ideological position particularly correlates.
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Just realised we only get like two days off before we have to start campaigning in all the council by-elections where the cllr is now an MP and FML
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Fact of the day!
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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I think this is a bit like defund the police in that the branding is much more radical than the actual policy proposal. Even among sceptics if you explain the actual policy it goes down ok but there's a lot of branding you have to cut through first.
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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I have no insight on Clacton to be clear, I only know about LD-Con marginals
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Fun election fact from a locked account on twitter: apparently the Lib Dems have printed so many tabloids this election that the country has literally run out of newsprint paper.
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Be fair, some of them would vote for the Tory candidate BECAUSE they had murdered their own family 👍
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Big caveat that I've done less canvassing than usual because of a persistent COVID cough that is not dangerous but is a bit off-putting to voters!
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Based on my canvassing vibes I honestly don't buy it but if it does happen I am looking forward to some tasty three way marginals in all the seats labour have gained from third!
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Hmm, time to put a quid on Laura Trott next leader?
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Apparently getting an evri message saying my parcel is ready to collect actually means it's not ready and it might be ready tomorrow because of course it does
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Easy to say but we might not like what replaces them
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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I know I couldn't be more stereotypical if I tried but I want this outcome SO BADLY
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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TBF stealing them is mad in this day and age when you never know if there's a ring doorbell. Not that I ever would have done this myself obviously 👀😬
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Yeah it's kind of nuts the party can't see this. They created a new seat in Oxfordshire due to population growth and we have a good chance at winning it! We need enough people to move to Oxfordshire to create another one by the time of the next boundary review! We should build them lots of houses!
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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I don't think it'll be trans rights, the party is highly supportive. I reckon it'll be Labour wanting to pass some kind of hideous authy policy on some niche type of crime and some MPs not wanting to oppose it.
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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We're not left and right Stephen, we're *liberals* get with the programme FUN TIMES
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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I don't think this means that the Lib Dems won't decide to have a civil war about it but I very much hope you are right!
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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You weren't there man, you weren't there
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Elle
@centristmum.bsky.social
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Plus the NIMBY YIMBY wars when Labour do planning reform will and the parly party inevitably goes full Villiers... Well... Let's just say that I didn't enjoy the Tuition Fee wars 😱
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