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Chris Hanretty@chanret.bsky.social |
I wrote a blog post about why I felt confident saying that Labour will win more seats than they did in 1997 www.chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/why_wa...
6 replies 15 reposts 41 likes
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Stephen Bush
@stephenkb.bsky.social
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Really good blog and really helpfully transparent write-up on the Survation website, too.
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Stephen Evans
@stephenevans.bsky.social
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That’s such a clear explanation of the potential issues & why they might (or might not be) likely. Thanks for sharing.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Ianrobo
@ianrobo.bsky.social
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and Chris will read that but we political nerds know how good you are and your track record, we may be stunned at what you produced but I trust you implicitly ! we shall see soon enough :-)
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Tom Clark
@tom-clark.bsky.social
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Great post! Thanks … I’m still reluctant to be 99% sure of anything given unobservable deviation from random samples, but more persuaded to be bullish than i was before I read your account which covered such problems
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Catnip
@catnipxword.bsky.social
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Thanks for the explanation. I've said previously that I feel for pollsters trying to model what's going on this election when so much is unprecedented or at least extreme enough to break things. Your analysis of UNS was very helpful there.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Graham Wilkins
@revgraham.bsky.social
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Thank you for this detailed analysis which even non-experts like myself can understand
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes