Stephen Bush

James Cooray Smith @cooraysmith.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 08:44 UTC

It’s not trying to trap you in an app. With the others, particularly Substack, very much are.

2 replies 1 reposts 3 likes

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 08:45 UTC

The login to read an email on your device is quicker (only need your password to access payment, etc. and can just enter your email and sign in quicker).

1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 08:43 UTC

As a newsletter reader, this is why I think Buttondown is the best user experience: creates less friction for the reader when a link is posted.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 08:41 UTC

Life is just logging out of different inboxes until you find the one you’ve subscribed to Sam’s newsletter with.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 08:40 UTC

We should care because we should have the wit not to be complacent that a far right leader’s electoral prospects, and hope for a moderate pick accordingly.

1 replies 0 reposts 8 likes

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 06:58 UTC

The 15 per cent rule actually dates from the last time they were a small party. It’s a Hague era change because it used to be even easier to trigger a contest (just needed a named challenger) and he feared getting got by Portillo.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 06:55 UTC

It’s not “but they have to do that before they can really contemplate a leadership election” - they do as a matter of course. The 100 rule is new - it was invented by the 1922 to stop a proper contest in autumn 2022. The 1922 always has to be elected before the leadership election.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 23:09 UTC

Your memory is correct.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 22:49 UTC

Yeah - two of the last three leaders have been ousted because the rules can be changed by fiat.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 22:39 UTC

Also the reverse dynamic is why the Labour right has yet to have a great second team, as it were: it gets so much of its energy and its best people from lefties moving right.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 22:38 UTC

It’s a) such a good observation and b) it sums up why talk that the Labour left is permanently defeated is bunk. (I believe there’s a Benn quote that applies here).

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 21:44 UTC

The elections to the 1922 committee this time will be especially acrimonious precisely *because* the thread is wrong- the 1922 will set the terms of the contest and this will obviously shape the outcome of the contest.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 21:42 UTC

This thread is full of errors (a consequence of the fact that the Tory rulebook is not available online). No, the 100 is not fixed. No, no members of the 1922 “lost their seats” - there are no members of the 1922 when parliament is dissolved. There are fresh elections every term.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 21:35 UTC

It is right, and it won’t automatically be changed, but the 1922 can, again, change that.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 21:31 UTC

No, this isn’t right - the rules are set by the 1922 committee at the start of every contest and it can and will be changed by the new 1922.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 21:30 UTC

It is a very pleasant surprise, particularly outside MoJ and the law officers, where he obviously has very developed views.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 20:43 UTC

Probably whatever BIS is called at the moment, simply because Rachel is a power player, Ed M is Starmer’s bezzie, and so it will inevitably have less prestige than it enjoyed when the coming woman, Kemi Badenoch was secretary of state.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 20:41 UTC

This is a really good question, but one that is unusually hard to answer because Rishi was such a crap PM. Like, even the AI summit, his baby, became more preoccupied with safety and the UK regulatory state’s preoccupations than his own, because he was crap.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 20:10 UTC

It’s certainly possible - I don’t know what priority Nandy gives it (obviously until yesterday we thought Lisa was gonna be doing Dfid).

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 19:57 UTC

The weather must make up for it, though!

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 19:52 UTC

(You also spend it going “god, I really hope that doesn’t mean Bob holds his seat. What a shit he is”.)

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 19:48 UTC

A strange thing about doing this job for a long time is you spend most of election night in a state of extreme tension going “god, Jim has lost his seat, how sad”. Then the next evening the new government makes a great and humane appointment to prisons minister you go “oh! I’m happy Jim lost”.

2 replies 8 reposts 98 likes

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 19:34 UTC

“Sectarianism” is when a British Muslim feels the same way about the Israel-Hamas war as a white Guardian reader.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 15:18 UTC

But of course this was one reason Stronger In’s polling in the referendum was off: their turnout assumptions were completely wrong.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 15:09 UTC

That said, I also agree with Jamie that we need to work out if voter ID was part of the picture.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 15:08 UTC

…that will only vote Conservative or not at all, and it’s possible that Reform gave those voters a third option.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 15:07 UTC

Another dynamic worth noting is Labour has never won a majority without turnout dropping. In 1945, 1964, October 1974, 1997 and 2024 turnout was lower than in the previous defeat. And in 1964 and 2024 they got fewer votes. I do think there’s a type of British “Tory or nothing” voter…

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 14:59 UTC

Nah. They were sincere liberal opponents of a bunch of authoritarian measures and opportunistic on other things.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 14:41 UTC

No, 1964.

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 14:35 UTC

If I had a pound for every time the Labour party entered office with a majority while winning less votes than in the crushing defeat it got in the election before, I’d have two nickels, which is not a lot, but it’s weird that it’s happened twice.

3 replies 13 reposts 81 likes

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 14:18 UTC

(The cynicism arises IMO because parties more regularly break their implicit promises: the Liberal Democrats implemented most of their manifesto 2010 to 2015, but they had spent a decade implying they were to the left of Labour, so people felt betrayed.)

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 14:16 UTC

I think misplaced cynicism about election promises is causing a lot of people to work too hard on “why did the Tories lose so badly?” It’s not that deep: most parties keep at least 80 per cent of their pledges. This one…really the only one is that they didn’t raise VAT. How else was it gonna end?

2 replies 10 reposts 43 likes