dburx.bsky.social

@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 14:06 UTC

Also: the UK would never have the problem of a geriatric PM; he'd be immediately be disposed of by his own MPs.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 11:56 UTC

What's really fun (and possible?) is if the Tories split with say 50 joining Reform, leaving Ed Davey as LOTO?

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 10:45 UTC

It was said motivation from Corbyn's leadership led to huge turnouts - this is true - among horrified Tory voters to stop him!

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 10:40 UTC

Economy is weak but not bad; it continues to be attractive and pulls in workers. Wages are not rising much and company investment is low. Record levels of immigration is a fact you have been invited to show contrary evidence to, but can't.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 10:37 UTC

Yes, and low turnout affected Tories more of course, but also Labour, as fewer supporters turn out in uncompetitive races. So Kier got less votes than Corbyn doesn't carry so much weight with me; if it was a closer election, they'd turn out.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 10:34 UTC

I didn't say they did. I said immigrants arrive given a strong economy. The economy pulls in the immigrants, not the other way around. If wages are kept low (by employers / gov't) then the benefits don't go to workers, they go to capital.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 10:23 UTC

No, my prior is that a strong economy that supresses wage inflation will attract immigrants by virtue of demand for cheap labour with the benefits going to capital.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 10:20 UTC

Well, not for 5 years. But FPTP systems show extraordinary volatility in seats based on small vote % changes from the distribution. If Reform/Con united again, or even if the LibDem/Lab tactical voting reduced in efficiency, then complete change at the next election is perfectly plausible.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 10:14 UTC

This is not about whether immigration brings benefits or not; it is about whether it is possible politically to increase immigration from its current historic highs, which the Tories achieved (and why a lot of their vote went to Reform)

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 10:12 UTC

All, right then, show me the statistics of when it was higher?

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 10:09 UTC

That is your view, but Kier on the eve of the election said differently, and I judge his view of the politics there is correct. Again, I said increasing immigration further from its current historic highs is politically unwise.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 10:07 UTC

I didn't say otherwise. I said increasing net immigration from its already historic highs is politically impossible, and let me add that Kier has said he won't do this, on the eve of the election.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:59 UTC

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br... 14% of total population? Clearly enough to cause social stress.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:55 UTC

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula... 672,000? Enough to split Reform form the Tories.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:55 UTC

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula... 672,000 is nothing?

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:48 UTC

Yes, we have a lot of immigration now; increasing the numbers would be unwise politically; hence my comment on "better" does not mean increase the numbers. It does mean act competently, professionally, legally, etc.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:46 UTC

Yes, Labour can ditch the "hostile environment" for a "professional, competent & welcoming one"; but as for increasing net immigration, I think given the levels under the Tories that would be suicide politically if carried on

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:45 UTC

On ULEZ, Kier was timid; on Gaza too; we will have to see if there is change. Main profile issues are also: Sewage & Water, Build Quality Housing but don't destroy the Environment (Tricky) Agree DELIVERY and COMPETENCE generally is the key

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 09:39 UTC

If by "better" is meant efficient processing of Refugee claims, then yes; but increasing immigration is impossible, surely? And Kier has said so. Tories let it rise; a significant factor in their loss to Reform. I think you will see lower immigration overall.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 00:44 UTC

First Con hold preserves Mark Francois for the nation. The overall quality of remaining Tories may be an issue for them.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 08:33 UTC

Surely the requirement to think for oneself is the baseline for having a democracy? Convention delegates ought to be able to do so and choose a nominee. Those that fear an open convention, of course the optics, yes, lets not have an unseemly panic, but let them think - it's not too scary!

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 15:27 UTC

But we can't keep lying that Bidens ok, or that having a geriatric as prez is good. The honourable thing is for him and his advisors to resign. Harris too, unless she and they think she can win. Having convention goers think for themselves should not be scary!

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 15:19 UTC

Yes, she would have to slightly surprise on the upside as a campaigner. But there is a chance the GOP overreach on the racial front, offending people, and she gets a witty put-down line that resonates. A debate could favour her, especially if Trump meltsdown under female taunts.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 15:09 UTC

If Harris can possibly win, then there shouldn't be any hesitation to go with her. Better some chance than none. I can imagine a debate where Trump makes monkey noises, or over reaches somehow, and she crushes him.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 17:59 UTC

Even if polls showed President Harris certain to lose the election catastrophically? Would they not pause? Would she not think?

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 16:21 UTC

Sad, but necessary. A lot more people close to Biden will have to be braver and have similar conversations if it's to end well.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 16:14 UTC

Ok, but as a non Tory sherry drinker I fear being judged now😀

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 14:38 UTC

You debate such a person, with humour, witticism, and one liner put downs. You can't do it with intellectual rebuttal, true. A UK systems strength is the PM never loses practice at that! Part of the job. Sentimental to think otherwise or complain. Right call by Biden here.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 13:31 UTC

Probably right, but maybe staring at certain defeat will focus minds and bend principles? Would they really prefer to lose than violate some party bylaw?

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 13:18 UTC

Because the one all but guarantees losing the election and others do not. The "must stay the course" Dems prefer this sort of sentimental tweet to doing something about reality!

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 12:49 UTC

These risks above are all legitimate concerns, but if it is pretty certain now to lose with Biden, then they become worth taking. This is a high risk situation. Your colleague Krugman agrees, and he's not promoting this debate out of malice, nor do many others.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 11:38 UTC

I agree, but as you suggested, in the US system there is no cadre of senior party elders who can take action. In the USSR it did get so embarrassing they put in Gorbachev. Which we foreigners are all thinking of.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 11:33 UTC

It's not irrational panic, it's that the Dems need to look reality in the face and change course somehow to a non suicidal option.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 11:22 UTC

Not American, but have some knowledge?

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 11:17 UTC

Correct, except in a sane world the Dems would not be so keen on suicide. And even in this one, maybe? If US won't elect Biden, nor Harris, choose a reasonable alternative. If they can't, they don't deserve to win.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 25, 2024 at 15:58 UTC

Beautiful graphic

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 24, 2024 at 05:56 UTC

Emerge in America.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 24, 2024 at 05:56 UTC

Perhaps this rural divide is like old-world ethnicity? You have self-id'd members of 2 groups, each of whom votes largely along ethnic lines, irrespective of class interest. 'Ethnicities emergency in America'?

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 18, 2024 at 06:04 UTC

Exactly as Montréalers felt as the Canadians used to win the Stanley cup regularly pre 90.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 14, 2024 at 15:28 UTC

Americans tend to think of their SC justices as sacred oracles from Delphi; the reality is more dubious and nonetobright scammers. Treating them as such is what's called for, as in this tweet.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 13, 2024 at 18:58 UTC

True!

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 13, 2024 at 18:55 UTC

Usually, no one outside of a local area knows who the local officials are; the exception is when they consistently do things so bizarre they come to world attention. The NY gov'nr has risen to that dubious standard

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 13, 2024 at 17:59 UTC

Bet trips across the Canadian border will become suddenly popular

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 10, 2024 at 19:35 UTC

Contest for political friends: boozy dinner. Then draft a manifesto in 10 min. Is it more coherent than this Tory one?

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 10, 2024 at 13:19 UTC

In this interesting model, perhaps the empty cathedrals were an early warning sign. But in Poland they are full.

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@dburx.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 09, 2024 at 18:46 UTC

Spare a thought for HM the King who'd have a PM who's afraid to appear in public. He had to wait so long to be King, and then he gets Truss and Sunak to work with....life just isn't fair sometimes.

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