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Motorhead

@bradmunchen.bsky.social

223 followers 98 following 43 posts

Auto industry expert. Musk hater. Here to shitpost on Musk, $TSLA & other frauds. More serious industry analysis can be found here: bradmunchen.substack.com/

Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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Tesla is the first carmaker in the world to not give volume guidance despite there being no pandemic or lineworker strikes.

Here are 7 significant points about Q4 results and 4 points about their earnings call.

Full report here: open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...

2 replies 1 reposts 2 likes

Reposted by Motorhead

Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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A bad start to 2024 for $TSLA:

-Model 3 refresh dissed by Chinese (6% px cut needed)
-Expect more price cuts in Europe & the US
-Hertz dumps ~20K Teslas at below-market prices

Lower used prices will haunt $TSLA from here. Expect write-downs this year.

Short report here 👉 tinyurl.com/3ncyfvyz

0 replies 1 reposts 4 likes

Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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Internal Tesla files were leaked to the press in May 2023.

And yesterday (Dec-31st), 3.8% of the files were leaked on Twitter.

Here's my take on reviewing the first 15% of the files.

open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...

1 replies 4 reposts 10 likes

Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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Lol, why do you need a Japanese kei car in FL?

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Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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The Tesla flying monkeys are all over the Daihatsu story. At last, it's not only Tesla that lies.

1 replies 0 reposts 12 likes

Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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Tesla is the biggest short in 2024.

Upside limited as Tesla's valuations are above tech stocks in the "Magnificent 7", despite TSLA being a carmaker with higher capex needs (lowest FCF yield).

Legal liabilities also come to a head in 2024.

Report here: open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...

0 replies 2 reposts 6 likes

Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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Deep dive into why EVs are seeing lower profitability each quarter.

Hybrids are taking away BEV share globally bc they're more affordable.

This won't change soon. Tesla, VW, GM, Ford & Benz have the biggest exposure (i.e. risk). Deep dive here tinyurl.com/57fxwh69

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Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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Diary of a Tesla Short Seller (Sept 15, 2023).

This week saw one of the biggest pumps of $TSLA by Morgan Stanley, which now sees the EV maker worth $1.3 trillion (4 Toyotas).

Stock is up 11% on this hype while fundamentals further deteriorate.

Update here: open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...

1 replies 2 reposts 5 likes

Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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Holy crap! This is sickest burn of Tesla that I've ever seen. And this guy has 2.3m subscribers! Thanks so much for sharing this. It confirms my deepest suspicions about what's going on in the Tesla customer base.

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Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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$TSLA is +2.6% this week & the best among the Magnificent 7, despite:

1) Musk's Twitter attack on the ADL
2) News of Musk aiding Russian invasion of Ukraine
3) News of Giga Mexico delay till 2027
4) Low weekly China sales

And more. Details here: open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...

1 replies 2 reposts 3 likes

Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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I'd prefer to use BlueSky, tbh. I hate using apps from META where they spy on your every move. It's honestly creepy. I've deleted Facebook a long time ago. Now trying to somehow to get all my friends to move onto Signal so I can delete WhatsApp.

1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Reposted by Motorhead

Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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I've lost millions betting against Musk & I've had the darkness lifted and finally see sunlight this year.

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Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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If you read about Howard Hughes--the riches man of his time--went down, it sounds like Elon Musk's best-case scenario. Hughes died as an ostracized billionaire addicted to drugs with no one around him but his caretakers. $TSLA

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Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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Lol, I don't think so. Look at how the SDNY & DOJ have launched new investigations on him (and likely have a grand jury in place) since the Ronan Farrow article came out in the New Yorker. Farrow really lit the fuse, bless his heart.

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Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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I think Musk might have really killed Twitter this time. Wonder if this makes big news tomorrow. $TSLA

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Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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Unfortunately, not that much. It feels lonely on this site.

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Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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VinFast ( $VFS ) is a Vietnamese EV maker that listed 2 weeks ago.

Was valued at $23bn at 8/14 listing (25% above $RIVN valuations) & now is worth $84bn or 25% more than VW Group.

Worth a look at shorting (I have no position yet).

Comprehensive report here: open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Reposted by Motorhead

e.w. niedermeyer's avatar e.w. niedermeyer @niedermeyer.io
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SpaceX is officially another Elon Musk cash burner. Losses narrowed from $968m in '21 to $559m in '22, and the "preliminary" Q1 '23 profit of $55m leaked to the WSJ sounds like a classic Elon "look, we're profitable" leak to raise more cash (which they've been doing almost nonstop for years now).

2 replies 8 reposts 11 likes

Reposted by Motorhead

Mere Smith's avatar Mere Smith @evilgalprods.bsky.social
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oh my god he’s making them change their fucking names now, like Manson

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Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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I think that Twitter will go bankrupt, in which case, the debt owners sell it off to more competent bidders.

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Motorhead's avatar Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social
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I don't like META apps because they blatantly steal so much personal information from you. Happy to be on Bluesky as an alternative now, but am pretty confident that by this time, next year, Twitter won't be owned by Musk. So, better quality.

2 replies 0 reposts 2 likes