Hey folks. I am positive some of you have solid resources, articles, summaries, commentaries, etc that you could share here.
Send your best recs on why the NYT is bad on trans issues to Emily, please? -->
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Here is the hometown newspaper review for Prince's "Purple Rain" album, released On This Day in 1984
"Prince's soundtrack album pelts listener, but seems tame"
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also please do everything possible to walk by in the background with woodbine
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oh crap
he always dies early
keep your head down!
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If you read this far, I’ll pay the Dog Tax: my dogs turning a sofa into a dog bunk bed.
/8X
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My main personal takeaway:
There is a LOT of time between July and the election.
Would I rather have Trump's polling numbers than Biden's? Yeah.
Would I rather have Biden's ground operation and budget? Hell, yeah.
Am I panicking over a July poll? No. Take it seriously, but this is winnable.
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More notes:
* I don't have incumbency marked, but you can infer it based on the previous winner (except if the winner died in office)
* I don't have campaign budgets or expenditure data
* This is only Gallup, not other pollsters, but they are one of, if not the, longest running poll
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Some notes:
* I don't know offhand if these are registered voters, likely voters, etc
* I don't know sample sizes or margins of error
* The poll data source is to the nearest 1%; the actual source was to the nearest 0.01% but I rounded here for easier reading
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4) Every time there was a notable third party in the July polling, their final share decreased by the actual election. Usually pretty notably -- most of the time, more than half the support dissipated; Perot kept about 2/3 of his support.
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2) In the 15 elections where the July leader ended up winning, 8 times they increased their lead between July and the election; 7 times they decreased it.
3) The 3 smallest changes from July to the election were the 3 most recent elections before 2020. Sign of model stability or quirk? Dunno.
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I know there are some actual pollsters on BSky who could give finer interpretation. I'm a data scientist but not a polling expert, so I'm sure I am missing some subtleties.
Given that, some observations:
1) In the last 22 elections, the eventual winner was behind in the July polls 7 times.
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Some actual data, FWIW.
Gallup polls from 1936 onward measuring July polls vs final result. If multiple July polls, I took the earliest. If "June/July" I tried to take what I thought was closest to July 1.
Sourced from:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling...
Hand-prepared by me; apologies for typos
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I have psoriasis and have never thought about it being triggered by stress... so this gives me something else to consider in addressing it. Thanks! (Seriously, not sarcastically)
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I've been having this debate with a friend. He wants a replacement and is convinced that other options only poll lower because of name recognition and that they'd lead Trump once they become the candidate.
My take is the opposite -- they haven't been slimed yet by the national media/GOP spotlight.
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That was my second thought, tbh.
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Same here! And I want him to avenge that entire Dallas series.
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You, a normal person:
Look at the picture of the Vice President!
Me, deranged:
Who the hell snuck into a team photo with a #38 jersey when all the numbers range from 4-15?
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He’s the little brother who got shoved in the back during every family photo.
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I think you’re right overall, but an amusing exception: head pastor at my church growing up once said he kept all of his sermons to under 12 minutes in the fall because he knew otherwise attendance would plummet at the 11am service on Vikings gamedays.
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Happy Wickson Wednesday!
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Since the puzzle name is public, this isn’t a spoiler: this got considerably easier when my morning brain finally realized it was titled In Neverland and not In Wonderland.
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I didn't know you were going to be in town until this post! Barring some other conflict, I think we'll be heading down to the bandshell.
And yeah, it is a great place to hang and watch a concert. Lakefront Park is a gem.
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thank the dogs for small mercies
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I haven't subscribed to the Strib for a while now... do they still give Katherine Kersten a column every few days?
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united at last!
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I am legitimately surprised they haven’t tapped Ben Wikler to run national operations but I’m happy as hell we have him here in Wisconsin.
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Tagging at end of thread since BlueSky threading is still weird…
But @darthbluesky.bsky.social did you hear that Wickson has retired from racing with Blair and Q and lives with my family now?
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The Minnesota Attorney General’s office has a good webpage on survey scams:
www.ag.state.mn.us/Consumer/Pub...
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The Minnesota Attorney General’s office has a good webpage on survey scams:
www.ag.state.mn.us/Consumer/Pub...
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Folks, I may have a PhD in history-including US politics history-but the last several years I’ve been working in public health as a science writer. One of my areas of focus is Aging, including Alzheimer’s and related dementias (AD/RD).
I find the discourse around Biden really troubling.
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Perfect— just as we parked when we got home, it switched to Pet Shop Boys.
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Doesn’t need to, I always have it on the coldest setting!
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I have yet to expose him to KISS, Alice Cooper, or The Cure!
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Our farmers market has a vendor that sells various pet snacks—dehydrated liver, lung, hearts, etc. The absolute favorite for both Wickson and Mona is the dried chicken feet.
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The first time we went to the dog park after he joined us, he was jumping around the front cabin. I had on sports talk radio and Wickson changed the station to XM 80s on 8, playing Def Leppard. I knew we’d get along great after that.
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Wickson picked the tunes today.
(Hard to read: display says Duran Duran — Hungry Like The Wolf)
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I have zero trust that these are legit political groups, zero trust that they represent the parties they claim to, and zero trust that this would result in anything other than identity theft and being put on a list for 100 more scams.
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I mean, if it is possible that this results in sending a bowl of snot to some neighbors, I DO happen to live in an HOA neighborhood...
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It should be noted that the Fairgrounds are less than 3 miles away from the U of M Midway Medical Center, for those of you willing to play the odds with the plethora of fried foods and your arteries.
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