JEEMS

Chris Steller @chrissteller.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 25, 2024 at 21:41 UTC

Here is the hometown newspaper review for Prince's "Purple Rain" album, released On This Day in 1984 "Prince's soundtrack album pelts listener, but seems tame"

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 17:51 UTC

also please do everything possible to walk by in the background with woodbine

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 17:50 UTC

oh crap he always dies early keep your head down!

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 16:51 UTC

If you read this far, I’ll pay the Dog Tax: my dogs turning a sofa into a dog bunk bed. /8X

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 16:47 UTC

My main personal takeaway: There is a LOT of time between July and the election. Would I rather have Trump's polling numbers than Biden's? Yeah. Would I rather have Biden's ground operation and budget? Hell, yeah. Am I panicking over a July poll? No. Take it seriously, but this is winnable. /7

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 16:43 UTC

More notes: * I don't have incumbency marked, but you can infer it based on the previous winner (except if the winner died in office) * I don't have campaign budgets or expenditure data * This is only Gallup, not other pollsters, but they are one of, if not the, longest running poll /6

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 16:41 UTC

Some notes: * I don't know offhand if these are registered voters, likely voters, etc * I don't know sample sizes or margins of error * The poll data source is to the nearest 1%; the actual source was to the nearest 0.01% but I rounded here for easier reading

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 16:39 UTC

4) Every time there was a notable third party in the July polling, their final share decreased by the actual election. Usually pretty notably -- most of the time, more than half the support dissipated; Perot kept about 2/3 of his support.

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 16:36 UTC

2) In the 15 elections where the July leader ended up winning, 8 times they increased their lead between July and the election; 7 times they decreased it. 3) The 3 smallest changes from July to the election were the 3 most recent elections before 2020. Sign of model stability or quirk? Dunno. /3

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 16:34 UTC

I know there are some actual pollsters on BSky who could give finer interpretation. I'm a data scientist but not a polling expert, so I'm sure I am missing some subtleties. Given that, some observations: 1) In the last 22 elections, the eventual winner was behind in the July polls 7 times. /2

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 16:32 UTC

Some actual data, FWIW.

Gallup polls from 1936 onward measuring July polls vs final result. If multiple July polls, I took the earliest. If "June/July" I tried to take what I thought was closest to July 1.

Sourced from:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling...

Hand-prepared by me; apologies for typos

/1

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 16:08 UTC

I have psoriasis and have never thought about it being triggered by stress... so this gives me something else to consider in addressing it. Thanks! (Seriously, not sarcastically)

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 15:46 UTC

I've been having this debate with a friend. He wants a replacement and is convinced that other options only poll lower because of name recognition and that they'd lead Trump once they become the candidate. My take is the opposite -- they haven't been slimed yet by the national media/GOP spotlight.

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 15:25 UTC

That was my second thought, tbh.

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 14:34 UTC

Same here! And I want him to avenge that entire Dallas series.

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 14:32 UTC

You, a normal person: Look at the picture of the Vice President! Me, deranged: Who the hell snuck into a team photo with a #38 jersey when all the numbers range from 4-15?

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 14:28 UTC

He’s the little brother who got shoved in the back during every family photo.

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JEEMS @jamesfrye.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 14:13 UTC

I think you’re right overall, but an amusing exception: head pastor at my church growing up once said he kept all of his sermons to under 12 minutes in the fall because he knew otherwise attendance would plummet at the 11am service on Vikings gamedays.

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