Dave Osmond

Simon Evans @drsimevans.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 03, 2024 at 10:03 UTC

EROI latest: "Wind and solar found to have higher energy returns than fossil fuels"

"A key issue in net energy analysis is the omission of…end-use efficiencies…these effects strongly favour the energy returns of wind and solar"

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

1 replies 19 reposts 40 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 29, 2024 at 09:18 UTC

The following thread contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($95/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, effects of climate change & much more (end)
bsky.app/profile/davi...

0 replies 0 reposts 6 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 29, 2024 at 09:17 UTC

Wind was performing very poorly in VIC & NSW, but mostly above average in QLD! QLD wind also outperformed in week 138 starting 10 Apr 2024, which had even worse wind than this week. A reminder that the NEM desperately needs more wind in QLD. (5/n)

2 replies 1 reposts 6 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 29, 2024 at 09:17 UTC

The week contained near record low wind output (50% below average), well below average solar output and the combined total of wind and solar was a record low at 39% below average. The week also had demand 3% above average (4/n)

1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 29, 2024 at 09:16 UTC

This was the lowest renewable penetration in my simulation by a considerable margin. 17.5% of supply from 'other', compared to the previous worst week of 10.7% starting 28 June 2023. But note that 'other' peaked at 6.8 GW this week, well below the 9 GW record of July 2023 (3/n)

1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 29, 2024 at 09:15 UTC

My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from opennem.org.au, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (2/n)

1 replies 1 reposts 7 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 29, 2024 at 09:14 UTC

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with just 5 hrs of storage (24 GW / 120 GWh) Results: last week: 82.5% RE last 144 weeks: 98.9% RE (1/n)

3 replies 12 reposts 41 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 22, 2024 at 03:06 UTC

Here's a couple of scatter plots of weekly rooftop solar Vs wind.

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 22, 2024 at 02:57 UTC

The following thread contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($95/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, effects of climate change & much more (end)
bsky.app/profile/davi...

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 22, 2024 at 02:57 UTC

My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from opennem.org.au, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (2/3)

1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 22, 2024 at 02:56 UTC

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with just 5 hrs of storage (24 GW / 120 GWh) Results: last week: 94.4% RE last 143 weeks: 99.0% RE (1/3)

2 replies 0 reposts 6 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 15, 2024 at 02:45 UTC

The following thread contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($95/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, effects of climate change & much more (end)
bsky.app/profile/davi...

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 15, 2024 at 02:45 UTC

Fortunately demand was below average (98% of annual average), so the end result of 93.1% RE was much better than the record worst week of 89.2% RE (week 97, demand=107% of annual average) (4/5)

1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 15, 2024 at 02:44 UTC

This week was the worst week for wind & solar generation in the 142 week history of my simulation, W+S was 63% of the annual average. Previous worst was 67% last month. Both wind & solar had very bad weeks, 62%-67% of annual average (3/5)

2 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 15, 2024 at 02:42 UTC

My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from opennem.org.au, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (2/3)

1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 15, 2024 at 02:41 UTC

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with just 5 hrs of storage (24 GW / 120 GWh) Results: last week: 93.1% RE last 142 weeks: 99.1% RE (1/4)

2 replies 3 reposts 9 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 08, 2024 at 02:29 UTC

The following thread contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($95/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, effects of climate change & much more (end)
bsky.app/profile/davi...

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 08, 2024 at 02:28 UTC

My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from opennem.org.au, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (2/3)

1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 08, 2024 at 02:27 UTC

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with just 5 hrs of storage (24 GW / 120 GWh) Results: last week: 100% RE last 141 weeks: 99.1% RE (1/3)

1 replies 2 reposts 4 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 01, 2024 at 13:04 UTC

Just recently joined LinkedIn. Am yet to post anything. Do you get much engagement? Do you think it's an appropriate location for these weekly simulations or should I just create a website?

1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 01, 2024 at 13:01 UTC

Thanks Louis,
Scale factors are shown in this tweet. Solar, esp rooftop solar is on track to reach one'ish in the next 10-20 years. Wind is lagging, held back by transmission & approvals issues, but will improve soon with 4 GW under construction & the CIS auctions.
bsky.app/profile/davi...

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 01, 2024 at 03:01 UTC

The following thread contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($95/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, effects of climate change & much more (end)
bsky.app/profile/davi...

0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 01, 2024 at 03:00 UTC

My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from opennem.org.au, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (2/3)

1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 01, 2024 at 02:59 UTC

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with just 5 hrs of storage (24 GW / 120 GWh) Results: last week: 99.7% RE last 140 weeks: 99.1% RE (1/3)

2 replies 2 reposts 7 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] May 01, 2024 at 02:25 UTC

Wise words from Professor Rod Sims.
“If we’re not measuring our emissions properly, how can we deal with them?
Australia should be measuring actual emissions from specific locations and not using averages based on decades-old industry data"
reneweconomy.com.au/simply-astou...

0 replies 2 reposts 5 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 24, 2024 at 06:12 UTC

The following thread contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($95/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, effects of climate change & much more (end)
bsky.app/profile/davi...

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Dave Osmond @davidosmond.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 24, 2024 at 06:12 UTC

My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from opennem.org.au, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (2/3)

1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes