Reposted by Simon Evans
I am a climate scientist + I do not consider myself as an expert on the most effective actions we can take. Instead, I look to the social science to answer that question, based on their analyses, and as you'd imagine, their list is a bit different. #1 is up there, #2 not so much. (see below)
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Truly grim reading: How key climate indicators have changed since IPCC AR6 WGI in 2021
🌡️Decadal warming at 1.19C, up from 1.09C
🛰️CO2 at 419ppm, up from 410ppm
🏭Emissions at 54GtCO2e, up from 53
📉Remaining carbon budget 150Gt, down from 500
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
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More than three-quarters of climate scientists surveyed by the Guardian think warming will reach at least 2.5C
Only 6% think we'll stay below 1.5C
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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💥Wind & solar are "fastest-growing electricity sources in history" – new Ember report
⛰️They're growing faster than demand: Peak fossil fuel power in 2024 – then "inevitable" decline
🏭They already shaved 22% off fossil power, saving 4GtCO2/yr
www.carbonbrief.org/wind-and-sol...
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NEW CHART: How British electricity supplies are shifting decisively away from fossil fuels
Super pleased with this very beautiful graphic, by my colleague Tom Pearson and reminiscent of Joy Division's iconic “Unknown Pleasures” album cover
www.carbonbrief.org/chart-how-br...
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Incredible effort by @daisydunne.bsky.social + @carbonbrief.org colleagues to track, translate & tabulate nature action plans ("NBSAPs") under UN biodiversity rules
So far, only 7 nations + EU have updated their NDC for nature, leaving 188 countries to go…
www.carbonbrief.org/cop16-tracki...
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Nothing to see here, I'm sure everything will be fine
carbonbrief.org/state-of-the...
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While "zero carbon operation" for 30mins will be a big milestone, it's only 1 step twds govt goal of fully decarbonised grid by 2035
Our analysis shows key need for low-carbon subs for gas, which still regularly meets 50+% of demand
5/ends
carbonbrief.org/analysis-fos...
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Key to running the grid without fossil fuels is a range of technical changes in how NGESO operates, inc whizzy new kit that has already come online for fossil-free "inertia" + other grid stability services
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carbonbrief.org/analysis-fos...
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Fossil fuel low of 2.4% only lasted an 1hr, but is sign of things to come as NGESO works twd 2025 goal of "zero carbon operation" for at least 30mins
NGESO tells me that "groundbreaking and pretty much world leading" moment is likely to come next autumn
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Fossil fuels are now regularly meeting less than 10% of daily British electricity demand, hitting a record-low daily average of 6.4% on April 2024
This illustrates the seismic changes going on in the GB electricity system over the past 10-15yrs
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carbonbrief.org/analysis-fos...
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NEW ANALYSIS
⛰️🔥Fossil fuels fell to a record-low 2.4% share of British electricity, for 1hr, earlier this month
📉Until 2022, it'd never been below 5%
📊Record 75 half hrs below 5% in 2024ytd
🎯Grid manager NGESO says its on track for 0% next yr
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carbonbrief.org/analysis-fos...
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This terrifying new study from @pik-potsdam.bsky.social shows the world is "committed" to losing 19% of average incomes by 2050, as a result of climate change
Crucially though, it says we can avoid far higher losses by 2100 if we take strong climate action
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Reform voters are not like other people, when it comes to net-zero
Fascinating insights in this latest Climate Barometer newsletter
us21.campaign-archive.com?u=3936cf3cf7...
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NEW: Fantastic in-depth Q&A by my colleague @ayeshatandon.bsky.social on a big but complex question: How does climate change drive human migration?
interactive.carbonbrief.org/climate-migr...
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Startling Global Energy Monitor chart showing China was responsible for 95% of new coal construction in 2023
70.2GW of new capacity started in China…
…3.7GW in the rest of the world, a record low
www.carbonbrief.org/china-respon...
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Reuters: Top corporate stds group SBTi "in turmoil" after board greenlights offsets for "scope 3" emissions
"staff accused leadership of acting without sound scientific basis, throwing the group…[a] leading arbiter of how companies set climate targets…into turmoil"
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
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View of the Sizewell nuclear site, from my morning run up the Suffolk Coastal Path on Easter break
Left to right:
Sizewell A (grey, retired)
Sizewell B (blue/white, operational)
Sizewell C? (large, heavily fortified patch of mud)
Was surprised how close you can get (!)
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OFFICIAL: UK greenhouse gas emissions fell 5.4% to 384MtCO2e in 2023, according to govt figures
This confirms @carbonbrief.org analysis, published earlier this month, of a 5.7% reduction to 383MtCO2e
carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-...
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Many will have seen this chart suggesting peak heat demand is 5-6x peak power demand…
Now we know for sure that it's wrong
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-...
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Hugely important findings for heat electrification: Hourly gas data proves peak heat demand is far lower than previously thought
"domestic peak heat demand in GB can be up to 149GW, which is up to 53% less than previously widely cited values"
www.cell.com/iscience/ful...
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Reposted by Simon Evans
MEGA FACTCHECK: Heat pumps are central for the transition to sustainable heating.
But heat pumps face relentless hostile media coverage. I comprehensively debunked 18 heat pump myths in Carbon Brief.
Find it here 👉www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-18-misleading-myths-about-heat-pumps/
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MEGA FACTCHECK
18 persistent myths about heat pumps, busted
TL;DR heat pumps cut CO2 by 77+% vs gas; they're the key tech for net-zero heat; and if you think they won't keep you warm, just ask the Norwegians
Many thanks @janrosenow.bsky.social for writing
www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-18...
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BREAKING
UK govt consults on delaying Clean Heat Market Mechanism by 1yr, with start date of 1 April 2025
Comes after media reports suggested govt might ditch policy altogether
No change to 6%-of-sales heat pump goal for 2025/26 or other details
www.gov.uk/government/c...
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EV sales are "bombing" latest
1.9m EVs sold globally in 2024 to date, up from 1.5m last year
+32% increase in global sales
+34% China
+33% US/Canada
+21% EU/EFTA/UK
…according to Rho Motion
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This terrifying FT chart paints my lifetime in the inexorably rising colours of global warming
Eyeballing, it looks like, what, 0.75C of warming since the 1980s?
And just look at the way the coolest months in the 2020s are mostly hotter than the hottest of the 1980s!
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Reposted by Simon Evans
Analysis: Trump election win could add 4bn tonnes to US emissions by 2030 | @drsimevans.bsky.social @vernerviisas.bsky.social
Read here: bit.ly/3P5GqSk
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The £800m pot for the UK's next offshore wind auction would only be enough for 3GW of new capacity at the price cap of £73/MWh (2012 prices), but could secure nealry 6GW at £50/MWh More in our budget summary
carbonbrief.org/uk-spring-bu...
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Reposted by Simon Evans
A rare Thread Of Hope in a dark time, read on for some incredible clean energy graphs and fight off the Climate Doomerism.
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Reposted by Simon Evans
When I worked at REN21 and we saw the growth of renewables (in final energy), it looked good and was accelerating.
But it was never enough to cover the overall increase in energy demand. It was just displacing fossil fuels.
This shows that we're getting ever-closer to no fossil growth at all.
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Reposted by Simon Evans
Great 🧵 on new IEA data with genuinely good news about clean energy. Clear message for the "We won't move till China does" crew, too. #energy #climate
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that was in tweet 2?
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Reposted by Simon Evans
V Interesting. Superficially consensus decision processes would appear as inclusive & collaborative; coming out of participatory democratic processes used in civil rights, peace, movements. But perhaps they've allowed lobbyists to slow/water down climate decisions, esp in areas like coal phase out.
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This is the inside story of how "obstructionist forces" (Opec + US fossil fuel lobbyists) weakened the UN climate process from the start
www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-t...
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Why do UN climate summits work by consensus?
Fascinating backstory from Jo Depledge
"disagreement over decision-making rules has its origins…in the deliberate strategy of obstructionist forces aiming to weaken intergovernmental response to climate change"
www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-t...
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Here are the two reports
CO2 in 2023
www.iea.org/reports/co2-...
Clean energy market monitor
www.iea.org/reports/clea...
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China’s per capita CO2 emissions are now higher than in the EU or Japan, and they’re catching up on the US, where per capita emissions are falling
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Most of the rise in China’s emissions in 2023 was due to economic growth, but post-Covid rebound and very weak hydro output also played major roles
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Most of the fall in EU emissions in 2023 was for “good” reasons (more renewables, more nuclear) rather than “bad” reasons (weak industrial outlook)
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Rich country CO2 emissions are the lowest since the 1970s
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Rich country coal use is now the lowest it’s been since around 1900, barring a brief dip for the Great Depression
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Clean energy deployed in China has avoided (a lot) more emissions than in any other country
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Clean energy deployment over the past 5yrs avoided 2.2bn tonnes of CO2
Without clean energy deployment, the increase in CO2 emissions in 2023 would have been 3x larger (!)
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Clean energy deployment over the past five years has offset…
…coal demand equivalent to entire G7 demand
…gas equiv pre-invasion EU imports from RU
…oil equiv UK demand
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Clean energy deployment surged in 2023 (but nuclear and heat pumps stumbled)
Deployment growth vs 2022
+85% solar
+60% wind
-30% nuclear
+35% EVs
-3% heat pumps
+360% electrolysers
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Global CO2 emissions rose again in 2023, but clean energy is slowing that growth like never before
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The IEA just published two fascinating reports
Here are some of the best charts
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Clean energy is growing twice as fast as fossil fuels
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Reposted by Simon Evans
Human Rights Watch just released a 118pp report on rights abuses at one of the world’s largest REDD+ projects. We documented a flawed consultation process, forced evictions, and arbitrary arrests. Verra should ensure accountability and remedies for victims. www.hrw.org/news/2024/02...
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