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Europe Elects@europeelects.bsky.social |
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Poll aggregation and election analysis in Europe. Partner of Africa, America, Asia, and Oceania Elects.
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Croatia, Promocija Plus poll:
HDZ-EPP: 34% (+1)
SDP-S&D: 29% (+4)
Možemo!-G/EFA: 12% (+2)
DP-ECR: 8% (-1)
Most→ECR: 7% (-1)
Fokus-RE: 2%
IDS-RE: 2%
RF-LEFT: 1%
PP-NI: 1%
HNS-RE: 1%
...
+/- vs. 1-4 June 2024
Fieldwork: 1-4 July 2024
Sample size: 1,300
➤ europeelects.eu/croatia/
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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This follows a move by the party board to expel several key members ahead of the party’s leadership election last month. If repeated in a national parliament election, this would be the party’s worst result since 2015.
europeelects.eu/estonia
(2/2)
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Estonia: in the latest Norstat poll, right-wing EKRE (ID) has fallen to 11.0%—the lowest polling result obtained by the party since June 2017. (1/2)
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Poland, United Surveys poll:
KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 36% (+1)
PiS-ECR: 32% (-3)
Kon~NI|ID: 13% (+1)
TD PL2050/PSL-RE|EPP: 10% (-1)
Lewica-S&D: 9% (+3)
+/- vs. 21-23 June 2024
Fieldwork: 5-8 July 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ europeelects.eu/poland
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Estonia, Norstat poll:
I-EPP: 34% (+4)
SDE-S&D: 15% (-1)
RE-RE: 15% (-1)
KE-RE: 12% (-2)
EKRE-ID: 11% (-2)
PP→EPP: 6% (+2)
E200→EPP: 3% (-1)
EER-G/EFA: 2% (+1)
+/- vs. 17-24 June 2024
Fieldwork: 1-5 July 2024
Sample size: 1,001
➤ europeelects.eu/estonia
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Croatia, 2x1 komunikacije poll:
HDZ-EPP: 36% (n.a.)
SDP-S&D: 26% (n.a)
DP-ECR: 9% (n.a)
Možemo!-G/EFA: 9%
Most→ECR: 7% (n.a)
Centar-RE: 3% (n.a.)
IDS-RE: 2% (n.a.)
…
+/- vs. 2024 election
Fieldwork: 17-25 June 2024
Sample size: 1,041
➤ europeelects.eu/croatia/
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Germany, Forsa poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 30% (-1)
AfD-NI: 17% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 14% (-1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11%
BSW→NI: 8% (+1)
FDP-RE: 5% (-1)
+/- vs. 25 June-1 July 2024
Fieldwork: 2-8 July 2024
Sample size: 2,504
➤ europeelects.eu/germany
#btw25 #Bundestag #Wahlen
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Spain, Hamalgama Métrica poll:
PP-EPP: 35% (-4)
PSOE-S&D: 30% (+2)
VOX-ECR: 11%
Sumar-LEFT|G/EFA: 6% (-4)
Podemos-LEFT: 4% (n.a.)
SALF-*: 4% (new)
Junts-NI: 2%
ERC-G/EFA: 2%
EH Bildu-LEFT: 1% (-1)
...
+/- vs. 18-21 March 2024
Fieldwork: 1-4 July 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ europeelects.eu/spain
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Georgia, ISSA poll:
Scenario: four opposition alliances
GD/PP~S&D|ECR: 39% (-9)
Ahali/LELO/EG-RE|EPP: 24% (+17)
UNM/SB-EPP|RE: 15% (-15)
ForGeo/FP/C~EPP|→S&D|~NI: 11% (+10)
...
+/- vs. 2020 election
Fieldwork: June 2024
Sample size: 2,000
➤ europeelects.eu/georgia/
#archevnebi #gvote24
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Georgia, ISSA poll:
Scenario: three opposition alliances
GD/PP~S&D|ECR: 39% (-9)
Ahali/LELO/EG/Girchi MF/Droa-RE|EPP: 28% (+21)
UNM/SB-EPP|RE: 15% (-15)
...
+/- vs. 2020 election
Fieldwork: June 2024
Sample size: 2,000
➤ europeelects.eu/georgia/
#archevnebi #gvote24
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Georgia, ISSA poll:
Scenario: opposition runs on a single list
United Opposition-EPP|RE: 51% (+9)
GD/PP~S&D|ECR: 41% (-7)
AP/CM~ECR: 3%
LP-*: 2% (+1)
Girchi-*: 2% (-1)
+/- vs. 2020 election
Fieldwork: June 2024
Sample size: 2,000
➤ europeelects.eu/georgia/
#archevnebi #gvote24
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Georgia, ISSA poll:
GD~S&D: 34% (-3)
UNM/SB-EPP|RE: 17% (-2)
Ahali-*: 12% (-2)
LELO-RE: 8% (+3)
ForGeo~EPP: 7% (+2)
Girchi MF/Droa-RE: 5% (+3)
EG-EPP: 4% (+2)
FP→S&D: 2%
...
+/- vs. 1-10 April 2024
Fieldwork: June 2024
Sample size: 2,000
➤ europeelects.eu/georgia/
#archevnebi #gvote24
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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It is, behind LFI-LEFT, the second most important party of the Nouveau Front populaire (LEFT|G/EFA|S&D) coalition, which won the most seats in Sunday's second round.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #electionslegislatives2024
(2/2)
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, snap national parliament election: building on its dynamic from its European Parliament election result, centre-left Parti Socialiste (S&D) more than doubles its seats in the National Assembly from a record-low 28 MPs in 2022. (1/2)
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, snap national parliament election: Les Écologistes (LÉ-G/EFA) win 33 seats, a total that almost doubles their previous record.
Formerly known as Les Verts then Europe Écologie Les Verts, the party is part of the Nouveau Front populaire (LEFT|G/EFA|S&D) coalition.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, snap national parliament election: with 126 seats, the Rassemblement National (ID) scores its best ever result since the party was founded in 1972, in spite of a significant underperformance.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #electionslegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (European territory), snap national parliament election:
Final turnout
2024: 66.6%
2022: 46.2%
2017: 42.6%
2012: 55.4%
2007: 60.0%
2002: 60.3%
Source: Interior Ministry
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #electionslegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, snap national parliament election, second round:
Final results (seat distribution)
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 182 (+51)
Ensemble-RE: 168 (-76)
RN and allies-ID: 143 (+54)
...
+/- vs. 2022 election
Source: Interior Ministry with Le Monde's labelling
➤ europeelects.eu/france
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, snap national parliament election, second round:
Seat distribution, 574/577 counted
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 181
Ensemble-RE: 166
RN and allies-ID: 143
LR/Divers droite-EPP: 60
...
Source: Interior Ministry with Le Monde's labelling
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#electionslegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Marie Guévenoux (Overseas)
Fadila Khattabi (Elderly and People with Disabilities)
Patricia Mirallès (Veterans’ Affairs)
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #electionslegislatives2024
(2/2)
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, snap national parliament election: Defeated Ensemble-RE cabinet members Sabrina Agresti-Roubache (Citizenship) Sarah El Haïry (Childhood, Youth, and Family) Dominique Faure (Rural Affairs) Stanislas Guerini (Public Service) (1/2)
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Hauts-de-Seine's 10th constituency election), snap national parliament election (second round): Attal (RE-RE): 58.2% Soubelet (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 41.8% Incumbent Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is reelected as MP. He announced his resignation as PM following tonight's national results.
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Yvelines's 7th constituency election), snap national parliament election (second round): Rousseau (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 39.1% Hai (RE-RE): 33% ... Former RE-RE Minister for Health and chief of staff to turned NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D candidate Aurélien Rousseau flips Nadia Hai's seat.
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Alpes-Maritimes's 1st constituency election), snap national parliament election (second round): Ciotti (LR/RN-EPP|ID): 45.1% Salerno (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 32.1% ... LR-EPP president Éric Ciotti, who initiated the alliance with RN-ID and faces an internal putsch wins re-election.
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Seine-Saint-Denis's 7th constituency election), snap national parliament election (second round):
Corbière (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 57.2%
Ali-Benali (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 42.8%
LFI-LEFT dissident Alexis Corbière wins re-election against his party's will.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Calvados's 6th constituency election), snap national parliament election (second round):
Borne (RE-RE): 56.4%
Calbrix (RN-ID): 43.6%
Former Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne is re-elected as Member of Parliament for a second term.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#electionslegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Corrèze's 1st constituency election), snap national parliament election (second round):
Hollande (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 43.1%
Pouget (RN-ID): 31.7%
Dubois (LR-EPP): 25.2%
Former President François Hollande makes a successful comeback in his stronghold.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Nord's 10th constituency election), snap national parliament election (second round):
Darmanin (RE-RE): 61.4%
Verbrugghe (RN-ID): 38.6%
Minister for the Interior Gérald Darmanin is re-elected.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #electionslegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Somme's 1st constituency election), snap national parliament election (second round): Ruffin (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 52.7% Ribeiro-Billet (RN-ID): 47.3% François Ruffin (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D) is re-elected. He has already stated he would not sit in LFI-LEFT's parliamentary group.
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Marne's 5th constituency election), snap national parliament election (second round): de Courson (LC-EPP): 50.4% Besson (RN-ID): 49.6% Charles de Courson (LC-EPP) narrowly keeps the seat he has been holding since 1993. He remains the most experienced MP of the National Assembly.
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, Ipsos exit poll: Snap national parliament election, second round (seat distribution) Individual parties RN-ID: 120-136 RE-RE: 95-105 LFI-LEFT: 68-74 PS-S&D: 63-69 LR-EPP: 57-67 LÉ-G/EFA: 32-36 MoDem-RE: 31-37 HOR-RE: 24-28 Divers-*: 14-19 LR/RN-EPP|ID: 12-16 PCF-LEFT: 10-12
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, Elabe exit poll:
Snap national parliament election, second round (seat distribution)
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 175-205
Ensemble-RE: 150-175
RN and allies-ID: 115-150
LR-EPP: 60-70
Divers gauche: 11-13
Divers-*: 10-14
Sovereignist c.: 0-1
➤ europeelects.eu/france
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, OpinionWay exit poll:
Snap national parliament election, second round (seat distribution)
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 180-210
Ensemble-RE: 155-175
RN and allies-ID: 135-155
LR-EPP: 46-56
Divers-*: 15-25
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #electionslegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, Ifop-Fiducial exit poll:
Snap national parliament election, second round (seat distribution)
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 180-215
Ensemble-RE: 150-180
RN and allies-ID: 120-150
LR-EPP: 60-65
Divers gauche-*: 10
Divers-*: 5-6
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #electionslegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, Ipsos exit poll:
Snap national parliament election, second round (seat distribution)
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 172-192
Ensemble-RE: 150-170
RN and allies-ID: 135-155
LR-EPP: 57-67
Divers gauche-*: 13-16
Divers-*: 8-11
UDI-RE: 6-8
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#electionslegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (European territory), snap national parliament election today:
All polling stations have now closed. Exit polls will be released by the main media outlets in any minute. They will be posted here.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #Elections2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (European territory), snap national parliament election today:
Polling stations are now closed in most of European France. Only those located in large cities remain open for one more hour.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #Elections2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (European territory), snap national parliament election today: Projected final turnouts at 5 PM CEST: Ipsos-Talan: 67% OpinionWay:67% Toluna Harris: 67.1% Elabe: 67.1% Ifop-Fiducial:67.5% The final turnout was 46.2% in the 2022 election, and 66.7% in the first round last week.
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (European territory), snap national parliament election today:
Turnout 5 PM CEST
2024: 59.7%
2022: 38.1%
2017: 35.3%
2012: 46.4%
2007: 49.6%
2002: 46.8%
Source: Interior Ministry
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #electionslegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Italy, Tecnè poll:
FdI-ECR: 29%
PD-S&D: 25%
FI-EPP: 10%
M5S-LEFT: 10%
LEGA-ID: 9%
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 7%
A-RE: 3%
PTD-LEFT|G/EFA: 2%
+E-RE: 2%
IV-RE: 2%
+/- vs. 26-27 June 2024
Fieldwork: 4-5 July 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ europeelects.eu/italy
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Italy, Termometro Politico poll:
FdI-ECR: 29% (-1)
PD-S&D: 24%
FI/NM-EPP: 10%
M5S-NI: 10% (+1)
LEGA-ID: 9%
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 7%
A-RE: 3%
PTD-LEFT|G/EFA: 2%
IV-RE: 2%
+E-RE: 2%
L-*: 1%
+/- vs. 26-27 June 2024
Fieldwork: 3-4 July 2024
Sample size: 3,300
➤ europeelects.eu/italy
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (European territory), snap parliamentary elections today:
Turnout 12:00 PM CEST
2024: 26.6%
2022: 19.0%
2017: 17.8%
2012: 21.4%
2007: 22.9%
2002: 20.8%
Source: Interior Ministry
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #Elections2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Germany, INSA poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 30% (+0.5)
AfD-NI: 18% (+0.5)
SPD-S&D: 15%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11% (-1)
BSW→NI: 9% (+0.5)
FDP-RE: 5% (-0.5)
LINKE-LEFT: 2% (-0.5)
+/- vs. 28 June-1 July 2024
Fieldwork: 1-5 July 2024
Sample size: 1,204
➤ europeelects.eu/germany
#btw25 #Bundestag #Wahlen
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (European territory), snap national parliament election today: ➤ Registered voters: ~49,500,000 ➤ Electoral system: 2-round, single-member constituencies ➤ 500 runoffs for 577 seats, including 89 three-way and 2 four-way runoffs ➤ Polls open: 08:00-19:00 CEST (some cities 08:00-20:00 CEST)
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Austria, OGM poll:
FPÖ-ID: 27%
ÖVP-EPP: 24% (+1)
SPÖ-S&D: 21% (-3)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11% (+2)
NEOS-RE: 8%
BIER: 5%
KPÖ: 3%
+/- vs. 10-21 June 2024
Fieldwork: 24-26 June 2024
Sample size: 1,023
➤ europeelects.eu/austria
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Romania, INSCOP poll:
PSD-S&D: 29% (-3)
PNL-EPP: 19% (-1)
AUR-ECR: 15% (-2)
USR-RE: 12% (n.a.)
S.O.S. RO→ID: 6%
UDMR-EPP: 5% (+1)
REPER-RE: 4% (+3)
PV~G/EFA: 2% (n.a.)
...
+/- vs. 14 February - 5 March 2024
Fieldwork: 19-27 June 2024
Sample size: 1,100
➤ europeelects.eu/romania/
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Romania, INSCOP poll:
Presidential election
Geoană (*): 27% (+1)
Ciolacu (PSD-S&D): 18% (-6)
Lasconi (USR-RE): 14% (new)
Șoșoacă (S.O.S. RO→ID): 13% (+5)
Ciucă (PNL-EPP): 12%
...
+/- vs. 14 February - 5 March 2024
Fieldwork: 19-27 June 2024
Sample size: 1,100
➤ europeelects.eu/romania/
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Netherlands, Peil poll:
Seat projection
PVV-ID: 38 (-3)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 25 (-1)
VVD-RE: 19 (+2)
CDA-EPP: 11
D66-RE: 11 (+1)
BBB-EPP: 8
NSC-EPP: 8
SP~LEFT: 6
PvdD-LEFT: 4
Volt-G/EFA: 4
...
+/- vs. 28-29 June 2024
Fieldwork: 5-6 July 2024
Sample size: N/A
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (Scotland), national parliament election:
Final vote share
LAB-S&D: 35.3% (+16.7)
SNP-G/EFA: 30.0% (-15.0)
CON~ECR: 12.7% (-12.4)
LDEM-RE: 9.7% (+0.2)
REFORM~NI: 7.0% (+6.5)
SGP-G/EFA: 3.8% (+2.8)
ALBA-*: 0.5% (new)
+/- vs. 2019 election
Special results page: europeelects.eu/uk2024/
#GE2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (Scotland), national parliament election:
Final result (seats won)
LAB-S&D: 37 (+36)
SNP-G/EFA: 9 (-39)
LDEM-RE: 6 (+2)
CON~ECR: 5 (-1)
+/- vs. 2019 election
Special results page: europeelects.eu/uk2024/
#GE2024
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