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Europe Elects@europeelects.bsky.social |
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Poll aggregation and election analysis in Europe. Partner of Africa, America, Asia, and Oceania Elects.
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (GB), More in Common poll:
Muslim voting intention
LAB-S&D: 57%
GREENS-G/EFA: 10%
CON~ECR: 7%
LDEM-RE: 7%
REFORM~NI: 6%
Fieldwork: 20-29 June 2024
Sample size: 1,417
➤ europeelects.eu/uk
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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NEW | The United Kingdom goes to polls on Thursday to elect a new lower house of the national parliament.
Labour (S&D) is set for a big victory, while the governing Conservatives (~ECR) might see a historically unprecedented collapse into third place.
europeelects.eu/2024/07/03/u...
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (GB), national parliament election:
Europe Elects polling average, 3 July 2024
LAB-S&D: 39% (-5)
CON~ECR: 21% (-3)
REFORM~NI: 16% (+5)
LDEM-RE: 12% (+3)
GREENS-G/EFA: 6%
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
+/- vs. 22 May 2024 (date election called)
➤ europeelects.eu/uk/
#GE2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (Scotland), Savanta poll:
SNP-G/EFA: 34%
LAB-S&D: 31% (-3)
CON~ECR: 15% (+1)
LDEM-RE: 9% (+2)
REFORM~NI: 6%
SGP-G/EFA: 3% (+1)
+/- vs. 21-25 June 2024
Fieldwork: 28 June - 2 July 2024
Sample size: 1,083
➤ europeelects.eu/uk/
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (GB), More in Common poll:
Scenario: parties led by 2019 leaders
CON~ECR: 36% (-9)
LAB-S&D: 30% (-3)
LDEM-RE: 13% (+1)
REFORM~NI: 11% (+9)
GREENS-G/EFA: 5% (+2)
SNP-G/EFA: 3% (-1)
PC-G/EFA: 1%
+/- vs. 2019 election
Fieldwork: 28-30 June 2024
Sample size: N/A
➤ europeelects.eu/uk/
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (GB), Survation poll:
MRP seat projection
LAB-S&D: 484 (+14)
CON~ECR: 64 (-21)
LDEM-RE: 61 (+5)
SNP-G/EFA: 10 (-2)
REFORM~NI: 7 (+3)
PC-G/EFA: 3
GREENS-G/EFA: 3 (+1)
+/- vs. 31 May - 13 June 2024
Fieldwork: 15 June - 1 July 2024
Sample size: 34,558
➤ europeelects.eu/uk
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (Wales), YouGov poll:
LAB-S&D: 40% (-5)
CON~ECR: 16% (-2)
REFORM~NI: 16% (+3)
PC-G/EFA: 14% (+2)
LDEM-RE: 7% (+2)
GPEW-G/EFA: 5% (+1)
+/- vs. 30 May - 3 June 2024
Fieldwork: 27 June - 1 July 2024
Sample size: 1,072
➤ europeelects.eu/uk
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (Wales), More in Common poll:
LAB-S&D: 42% (-3)
CON~ECR: 22% (+1)
REFORM~NI: 14% (+2)
PC-G/EFA: 9% (-4)
GPEW-G/EFA: 5% (+2)
LDEM-RE: 4%
+/- vs. 22-27 May 2024
Fieldwork: 24-28 June 2024
Sample size: 848
➤ europeelects.eu/uk
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Slovakia, Ipsos poll:
Smer-NI: 25%
PS-RE: 22% (+1)
Hlas~NI: 14% (-1)
Republika-NI: 7% (+2)
KDH-EPP: 6% (-1)
SaS-ECR: 6% (-2)
D-EPP: 5% (+1)
MA-EPP: 4%
SNS-ID: 3%
S/KÚ/ZĽ-EPP|ECR: 4% (-1)
...
+/- vs. 14-21 May 2024
Fieldwork: 26 June - 1 July 2024
Sample size: 1,017
➤ europeelects.eu/slovakia/
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Italy, Demopolis poll:
FdI-ECR: 29% (+2)
PD-S&D: 25% (+3)
M5S-NI: 10% (-5)
FI-EPP: 9%
LEGA-ID: 9%
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 7% (+2)
A-RE: 3% (-1)
IV-RE: 2% (n.a.)
+/- vs. 22-23 May 2024
Fieldwork: 24-25 June 2024
Sample size: 2,000
➤ europeelects.eu/italy
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Italy, Euromedia poll:
FdI-ECR: 29% (+2)
PD-S&D: 24% (+4)
M5S-NI: 10% (-7)
LEGA-ID: 9%
FI-EPP: 9%
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 7% (+3)
A-RE: 3% (-1)
IV-RE: 3% (n.a.)
PTD-LEFT|G/EFA: 2% (-1)
+E-RE: 2% (n.a.)
L-*: 1% (-1)
...
+/- vs. 15 May 2024
Fieldwork: 26 June 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ europeelects.eu/italy
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Italy, Ipsos poll:
FdI-ECR: 28% (+1)
PD-S&D: 23%
M5S-NI: 12% (-2)
LEGA-ID: 9% (+1)
FI-EPP: 8% (-1)
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 6% (+1)
A-RE: 3% (-1)
+E-RE: 2% (n.a.)
IV-RE: 2% (n.a.)
ScN-*: 1% (-1)
+/- vs. 20-21 May 2024
Fieldwork: 25-27 June 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ europeelects.eu/italy
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Germany, Forsa poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 31%
AfD-NI: 16%
SPD-S&D: 15%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11%
BSW→NI: 7%
FDP-RE: 6% (+1)
+/- vs. 18-24 June 2024
Fieldwork: 28 June-1 July 2024
Sample size: 2,506
➤ europeelects.eu/germany
#btw25 #Bundestag #Wahlen
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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The government consists of right-wing PVV (ID), liberal VVD (RE), centre-right NSC (EPP) and agrarian BBB (EPP) holding 88 of the 150 seats in the lower house of parliament.
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
(2/2)
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Netherlands: 223 days after the 22 November 2023 election, the new government led by former Director-General of the Dutch intelligence and security service — Dick Schoof (*) — as prime minister is sworn in by King Willem-Alexander (*). (1/2)
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Germany, INSA poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 29.5% (-0.5)
AfD-NI: 17.5% (+0.5)
SPD-S&D: 15%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12%
BSW→NI: 8.5% (-0.5)
FDP-RE: 5.5% (-0.5)
LINKE-LEFT: 2.5% (+0.5)
FW-RE: 2%
+/- vs. 24-28 June 2024
Fieldwork: 28 June-1 July 2024
Sample size: 2,006
➤ europeelects.eu/germany
#btw25 #Bundestag #Wahlen
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Spain, 40dB poll:
PP-EPP: 33% (-2)
PSOE-S&D: 31%
VOX-ECR: 10% (-3)
Sumar-LEFT|G/EFA: 6% (-1)
SALF-*: 4% (new)
Podemos-LEFT: 3%
+/- vs. 10-13 May 2024
Fieldwork: 21-24 June 2024
Sample size: 2,000
➤ europeelects.eu/spain
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Netherlands, Peil poll:
Seat projection
PVV-ID: 41 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 26 (+1)
VVD-RE: 17 (-2)
CDA-EPP: 11 (+1)
D66-RE: 10
BBB-EPP: 8
NSC-EPP: 8 (+1)
SP~LEFT: 6
PvdD-LEFT: 4
Volt-G/EFA: 4
...
+/- vs. 31 May 2024
Fieldwork: 28-29 June 2024
Sample size: N/A
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Spain, Target Point poll:
PP-EPP: 35% (-4)
PSOE-S&D: 30% (+3)
VOX-ECR: 10% (-1)
Sumar-LEFT|G/EFA: 6% (-5)
Podemos-LEFT: 4% (n.a.)
SALF-*: 4% (new)
+/- vs. 5-7 March 2024
Fieldwork: 25-27 June 2024
Sample size: 1,002
➤ europeelects.eu/spain
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (London), Savanta poll:
LAB-S&D: 49% (-6)
CON~ECR: 19% (-3)
REFORM~NI: 11% (+3)
LDEM-RE: 10%
GPEW-G/EFA: 6% (+1)
+/- vs. 10-18 June 2024
Fieldwork: 21-26 June 2024
Sample size: 1,579
➤ europeelects.eu/uk
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Greece, Kapa Research poll:
ND-EPP: 34% (-6)
SYRIZA-LEFT: 15% (+1)
PASOK KINAL-S&D: 14% (-1)
EL-ECR: 10% (+4)
KKE-NI: 9%
Niki→NI: 4% (+1)
PE→NI: 4% (+1)
FL→ECR: 3% (new)
MeRA25~LEFT: 2%
NA-LEFT: 2% (-1)
+/- vs. December 2023
Fieldwork: 25-28 June 2024
Sample size: 1,487
➤ europeelects.eu/greece
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Estonia, Norstat poll:
I-EPP: 30% (-1)
RE-RE: 16% (-2)
SDE-S&D: 16% (-2)
KE-RE: 14% (+1)
EKRE-ID: 13% (+1)
PP→EPP: 5% (-1)
E200→EPP: 4% (+2)
EER-G/EFA: 1%
+/- vs. 10-17 June 2024
Fieldwork: 17-24 June 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ europeelects.eu/estonia
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, snap national parliament election:
Seat distribution, 75 MPs were elected in the first round
RN and allies-ID: 38
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 32
Ensemble-RE: 2
LR/Divers droite-EPP: 3
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #Elections2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (European territory), snap national parliament election today:
Final turnout
2024: 66.7%
2022: 47.5%
2017: 48.7%
2012: 57.2%
2007: 60.4%
2002: 64.4%
Source: Interior Ministry
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #ElectionsLegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, snap national parliament election:
Final results
RN and allies-ID: 33.2% (+14)
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 28% (+2)
Ensemble-RE: 20% (-6)
LR-EPP: 6.6% (-4)
Divers droite-*: 3.7% (+2)
Divers gauche-*: 1.5% (-1.5)
Divers centre-*: 1.2%
...
+/- vs. 2022 election
➤ europeelects.eu/france
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (GB), We Think poll:
LAB-S&D: 42% (-1)
CON~ECR: 20% (-2)
LDEM-RE: 10% (+2)
GREENS-G/EFA: 7%
REFORM~NI: 16% (+3)
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
+/- vs. 20-21 June 2024
Fieldwork: 27–28 June 2024
Sample size: 1,210
europeelects.eu/uk
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (GB), Savanta poll:
LAB-S&D: 38% (-4)
CON~ECR: 21%
LDEM-RE: 11% (+1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 6% (+1)
REFORM~NI: 14%
SNP-G/EFA: 2% (-1)
+/- vs. 21-24 June 2024
Fieldwork: 26–28 June 2024
Sample size: 2,092
europeelects.eu/uk
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (GB), Opinium poll:
LAB-S&D: 40%
CON~ECR: 20%
REFORM~NI: 17% (+1)
LDEM-RE: 13% (+1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 6% (-3)
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 1%
+/- vs. 19-21 June 2024
Fieldwork: 26–28 June 2024
Sample size: 1,503
europeelects.eu/uk
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (GB), Techne poll:
LAB-S&D: 41% (-1)
CON~ECR: 19%
LDEM-RE: 12%
GREENS-G/EFA: 5%
REFORM~NI: 17%
SNP-G/EFA: 3% (+1)
+/- vs. 19-20 June 2024
Fieldwork: 26–27 June 2024
Sample size: 1,643
europeelects.eu/uk
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (GB), Survation (MRP) poll:
LAB-S&D: 42% (+2)
CON~ECR: 25% (+1)
LDEM-RE: 11%
REFORM~NI: 11% (-1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 5% (-1)
SNP-G/EFA: 2% (-2)
PC-G/EFA: 1%
+/- vs. 31 May – 13 June 2024
Fieldwork: 15–27 June 2024
Sample size: 23,364
europeelects.eu/uk
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (GB), Survation poll:
LAB-S&D: 41%
CON~ECR: 18% (-2)
REFORM~NI: 14% (-1)
LDEM-RE: 12%
GREENS-G/EFA: 5% (-1)
SNP-G/EFA: 2%
+/- vs. 14-18 June 2024
Fieldwork: 21–25 June 2024
Sample size: 1,022
europeelects.eu/uk
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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UK (GB), We Think (MRP) poll:
LAB-S&D: 42%
CON~ECR: 22%
REFORM~NI: 14%
LDEM-RE: 11%
GREENS-G/EFA: 6%
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
Fieldwork: 30 May – 24 June 2024
Sample size: 18,595
europeelects.eu/uk
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th constituency election), snap national parliament election:
Bompard (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 67.1%
Quinquis (RN-ID): 15.5%
Torchi (RE-RE): 11%
...
LFI leader Manuel Bompard is re-elected MP in the first round.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Hauts-de-Seine's 10th constituency election), snap national parliament election:
Attal (RE-RE): 43.9%
Soubelet (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 35.6%
Laye (LR/RN-EPP|ID): 13.1%
...
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal will face Cécile Soubelet in a two-way runoff.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Somme's 1st constituency election), snap national parliament election: Ribeiro-Billet (RN-ID): 40.7% Ruffin (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 33.9% Branlant (MoDem-RE): 22.7% ... Prominent LFI/PD figure Ruffin will face Ribeiro-Billet in a runoff. Branlant dropped out of the race in his favour.
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Finistère's 8th constituency election), snap national parliament election: Perez (RN-ID): 30.8% Balanant (MoDem-RE): 27.8% Le Bon (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 18.1% ... For the first time since 1972, there will be at least one four-way runoff in a national parliament election.
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Nord’s 10th constituency election), snap national parliament election: Darmanin (RE-RE): 36% Verbrugghe (RN-ID): 34.3% Mortreux (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 24.8% ... Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin advances to the runoff alongside Bastien Verbrugghe and Leslie Mortreux.
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Nord’s 20th constituency election), snap national parliament election:
Florquin (RN-ID): 58%
Roussel (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 31.2%
Vervandier (MoDem-RE): 10.6%
...
Guillaume Florquin upsets Fabien Roussel and is elected MP in the first round.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Pas-de-Calais’s 11th constituency election), snap national parliament election:
Le Pen (RN-ID): 58%
Laal (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 26.1%
Lamy (UDI-RE): 7.6%
Lanoy (LR-EPP): 4.8%
...
Marine Le Pen is re-elected MP in the first round.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (Corrèze’s 1st constituency election), snap national parliament election:
Hollande (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 37.6%
Pouget (RN-ID): 30.9%
Dubois (LR-EPP): 28.6%
...
In a surprise comeback, former President François Hollande will have to go through a runoff in his fiefdom.
europeelects.eu/france
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France,
Toluna-Harris exit poll:
Snap national parliament election
RN and allies-ID: 34.2%
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 29.6%
Ensemble-RE: 22.4%
LR/Divers droite-EPP: 10%
REC-ECR: 1%
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#legislatives2024 #ElectionsLegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, Ipsos exit poll:
Snap national parliament election (seat distribution)
RN and allies-ID: 230-280
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 125-165
Ensemble-RE: 70-100
LR/Divers droite-EPP: 41-61
Divers-*: 22-30
Divers gauche-*: 11-19
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #ElectionsLegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, Ipsos exit poll:
Snap national parliament election
RN and allies-ID: 34%
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 28.1%
Ensemble-RE: 20.3%
LR/Divers droite-EPP: 10.2%
Divers gauche-*: 1.8%
Divers centre-*: 1.4%
...
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #ElectionsLegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, Ifop-Fiducial exit poll:
Snap national parliament election (seat distribution)
RN and allies-ID: 240-270
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 180-200
Ensemble-RE: 60-90
LR/Divers droite-EPP: 30-50
Divers-*: 13-21
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #ElectionsLegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France, Ifop-Fiducial exit poll:
Snap national parliament election
RN and allies-ID: 34.2%
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 29.1%
Ensemble-RE: 21.5%
LR/Divers droite-EPP: 10%
Far-left candidates-*: 1.3%
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #ElectionsLegislatives2024
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Czechia, Kantar poll: Scenario: SPOLU as a single list ANO-NI: 35% (+2) SPOLU-ECR|EPP: 23% Piráti-G/EFA: 9% (-2) STAN-EPP: 9% (+1) SPD-ID: 6% (-3) Přísaha-*: 4%+ KSČM-LEFT: 4% (+1) ... +/- vs. 22 April - 10 May 2024 Fieldwork: 10 - 21 June 2024 Sample size: 1,033 ➤europeelects.eu/czechia
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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Czechia, Kantar poll:
ANO-NI: 34% (+2)
ODS-ECR: 16%
Piráti-G/EFA: 9% (-2)
STAN-EPP: 9% (+1)
SPD-ID: 6% (-3)
Přísaha-*: 4%
TOP09-EPP: 4% (-1)
KDU/ČSL-EPP: 3% (-1)
KSČM-LEFT: 3%
...
+/- vs. 22 April - 10 May 2024
Fieldwork: 10 - 21 June 2024
Sample size: 1,035
➤ europeelects.eu/czechia
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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These turnouts would be close to 1993 and 1997 levels. In the 2022 national parliament election, the final turnout was 47.5%.
➤ europeelects.eu/france
#législatives2024 #ElectionsLegislatives2024
（2/2）
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (European territory), snap national parliament election today: Projected final turnouts at 5 PM CEST: Toluna Harris: 69.7% Elabe: 69.5% Ifop-Fiducial: 69% OpinionWay: 68.5% Ipsos: 67.5% （1/2）
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Europe Elects
@europeelects.bsky.social
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France (European territory), snap national parliament election today:
Turnout 5 PM CEST
2024: 59.4%
2022: 39.4%
2017: 40.8%
2012: 48.3%
2007: 49.3%
2002: 50.5%
Source: Interior Ministry
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