Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Fast playgrounds next to kid chargers, got it. Coming up
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Tennant Reed@tennantreed.bsky.social |
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Melbourne-based climate and energy wonk with Ai Group. CBAM obsessive. Cohost of the Let Me Sum Up podcast. Let’s see how this Bluesky thing goes!
Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Fast playgrounds next to kid chargers, got it. Coming up
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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OUT NOW: an LMSU live episode, summing up the National Australian Built Environment Ratings Scheme / Commercial Building Disclosure Conference. Features a novel substitute for me (don’t worry, he too loves CBAMs) and extreme contest tactics from Frankie! podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/l...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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The memes write themselves
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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And the final bit of the release!
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Australian Industry Group response to the release of the 2024 Integrated System Plan - "Electricity plan demands all hands on deck"
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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2024 Integrated System Plan: it’s here, it’s clear, get into it: aemo.com.au/energy-syste...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Super on point! This is a paper we have wished for. Onto the pile it goes
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Interesting update from the US context - lots of effort & interest re new nuclear there, but also some big caution from the financial scars of the most recent projects
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Not just carbonated ones!
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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OUT NOW and EXCLUSIVE to Patreon backers: Let Me Sum Up podcast rapid reaction to emissions target and nuclear energy announcements from the Federal Opposition. Incredible content, in at least two senses! www.patreon.com/posts/106520...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Statement by Australian Industry Group on the energy policy announcement from the Coalition today: www.aigroup.com.au/news/media-c...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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I spoke at #australianenergyweek today about taking Australian energy advantage seriously. Success will be worthwhile, but very demanding!
www.linkedin.com/pulse/sun-ha...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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OUT NOW: a special all-request ask-us-anything 50th episode of the Let Me Sum Up podcast! So many great questions! What makes a good paper? What are useful uses of IAMs? Who are we being sent back in time to assassinate? (Wait, what?)
podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/l...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Huzzah! Onto the pile it goes!
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Last call for LMSU AMA questions! we’ve got a great bunch but will take more via mailbag@letmesumup.net by end of 9 June. Energy conundrums! Climate queries! Podcast behind the scenes-ery! Pop culture! (time travel questions fully covered, however) Audio questions extra welcome!
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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(Though we have done GSOO)
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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We have not! Onto The Pile it goes!
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Calling All Summerupperers! View this heartfelt, blanket-enhanced plea from the LMSU team for your questions ahead of our special AMA 50th episode! Get questions in (as audio, text or meme) to mailbag@letmesumup.net by 10/6 and grill us on anything.
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/e4n1i...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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(Technically you could also find out by reading the strategy, which you can do here: www.industry.gov.au/publications...)
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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OUT NOW: Australia’s Future Gas Strategy! What’s in it, what’s not in it, and why does Frankie eventually run out of words about it? You can only find out by listening to Let Me Sum Up! podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/l...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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To the extent that extra demand actually results, yes! But IT efficiency mavens are dubious that will happen. One more thing for us all to consider!
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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www.afr.com/chanticleer/...
Will AI energy demand be disruptively big?
A) Morgan Stanley numbers are not apocalyptic
B) Amory Lovins told the EEC conference recently that efficiency & other factors would greatly moderate AI ⚡️ growth; this pod reached similar view: podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/s...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Neither the EU ETS nor the Australian Safeguard covers enteric fermentation emissions; neither could have a WTO-compliant border adjustment for a burden they do not impose domestically. (but energy-related methane combustion/leak is in both (EU complex) and could be adjusted for where relevant)
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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I think Matt is basically right here: solutions to avert Eraring extension haven’t progressed fast enough, it will need to extend a bit.
But also:
- economics of other coal surely worsen as result
- alts still need acceleration
www.afr.com/policy/energ...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Tell us more at mailbag@letmesumup.net !
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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On the solar supply chain production credits: while the motivation is fear of overreliance on China, the paradox is that a full-spectrum local supply chain will take deep partnership with Chinese solar businesses and entry of skilled Chinese workers to teach Australians.
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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We do need to watch associated gen & use to be confident emissions reductions are maximised, however. These H2 supports look like enough to get a significant early wedge of production going. That experience'll drive down underlying costs for the waves of deployment that follow.
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Some extra points that didn't quite make it in: A hydrogen production tax credit of AUD$2 per kilo of H2, combined with the expanded Hydrogen Headstart program, should be competitive with US incentives whose higher top rate is much harder to access.
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Also OUT NOW, but also also EXCLUSIVE! to LMSU Patreon backers: rapid reaction to the climate & energy bits of #budget24 , featuring the sights and smells of the lockup; FuMiA; a slice of CAIC; and the insights of Evil Frankie. Here’s a sneaky preview: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/280rs...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Amidst a very frantic week it was great to get the chance to share some initial reactions to the clean economy package in the 2024-25 Budget, via @guardianaustralia.bsky.social
amp.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Also OUT NOW, but also also EXCLUSIVE! to LMSU Patreon backers: rapid reaction to the climate & energy bits of #budget24 , featuring the sights and smells of the lockup; FuMiA; a slice of CAIC; and the insights of Evil Frankie. Here’s a sneaky preview: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/280rs...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Here’s the underlying report: grattan.edu.au/wp-content/u...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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OUT NOW: LMSU review a report on the health of the NEM wherein Tony Wood, @reevealison.bsky.social & Richard Yan beat up nearly every energy stakeholder for 15+ years of error, then offer sensible solutions to the concussed survivors.
NEM Fighter II: FIGHT! podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/l...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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$22.7b is a long way short of the tactical $100b many asked for - but more than the “what would move the needle in key industries” numbers in my dodgy spreadsheet. Lots of implementation detail to sweat! #budget2024-25
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Unutterably delighted today to FINALLY fulfil my pledge to award a cake for the best submission to the Victorian 2035 emissions targets review. Promises made, promises kept. Congrats to ClimateWorks Centre! (and credit to Miilk for excellent Red Velvet)
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Can’t hack the brains of the skilled workers though (as yet! and I guess the Chinese equivalent of Major Kusanagi would be pushing back on that one)
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Very possible, though anxiety about supply chains has a lifespan not necessarily correlated with the production credit duration. I guess we’ll see!
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Initial supports would likely run their term, but after…? China nerves are out there. But the APVI plan requires deeper cooperation with China here in order to reduce reliance on physical imports…
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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The report calls for, and the policy appears to deliver, production credits over at least a ten year period. What happens after an initial credit period is not entirely clear to me however
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Interchangeable to me! But there may be different resonances for others
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Rather than do increasingly baroque metaphors where reverted coal plants then gradually metamorphoses back into wind farms again, I’ll just say: if the plant’s owner had first sold all its RECs, then still claimed them for its wider portfolio, that’d be dodgy regardless of power plant lycanthropy
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Plus acronym custard, shameless plugs, and the comforting discovery that the end of the world confirms all my opinions (about one particular film, anyway)
Here’s the underlying report! arena.gov.au/knowledge-ba...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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OUT NOW: Industry strategy is back! And 🇦🇺 has committed $1b to kickstart a local solar PV supply chain. LMSU pores over the @APVInstitute report that underpinned that decision. Is the strategy strategic? Is the plan less 🇨🇳, or deeper 🇨🇳? podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/l...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Also a very large share of associated sequestration has been sold off - I’m more in the “this is real abatement” camp but double counting of real reductions is still double counting
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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PM must pick his winners with more care (paywalled)
www.afr.com/policy/econo...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Very sensible! “Do energy intensive stuff with the cheapest PV going” is a more obvious opportunity than “join the rush into PV manufacture” The next Let Me Sum Up podcast will dig into the report underlying the PV policy; lots of interesting issues there including the paradoxical China relationship
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Bingo! www.g7italy.it/wp-content/u...
Fights for another day: what is abated? and what is a timeline consistent with keeping 1.5C within reach?
Latter is interpreted as a concession to Japan and Germany, but like many compromises it can be interpreted as being more demanding...
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Overall, I think this wave of consultation is consistent with: - leakage is widely seen as a real problem to be solved - CBAM is a solution many are open to, but complex and fraught - nothing else is a fully convincing and sustainable alternative alone, but several approaches might complement a CBAM
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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There was also a teeny complement of "who cares about emissions, CO2 is plant food" people
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Tennant Reed
@tennantreed.bsky.social
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Oh yes, and existing Safeguard measures (TEBA) were almost universally seen as inadequate to address leakage over the longer term, though opinion divided between "get out of this ASAP" and "CBAM supplements TEBA"
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