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John Quiggin@johnquiggin.bsky.social |
554 followers 57 following 1140 posts
Economist & blogger @ johnquiggin.com, crookedtimber.org. johnquiggin.substack.com/?utm mstdn.social/@johnquiggin
Trolls blocked on sight, snarks get one warning.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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After taking account of demographic effects (old Tory voters replaced by young Labor voters), Starmer did worse than Corbyn in 2019 (and much worse than Corbyn 2017). Amazing that such a tiny shift can swing from one gigantic majority to another. FPTP sux!
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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The Baby Boom was a real demographic event with important consequences. But if you buy cultural generations at all, you need to split it around 1954 and extend the bits in both directions by a year or two. Pre-1954 is Vietnam generation (still doesn't include Biden), post-1954 Generation Jones.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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It’s one of those words like “Tory” that tells you lots about the internal culture of Labor
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Agree. Add in a congestion price for the CBD, and a mileage charge for road use in general
Toll roads charge too much yet we don’t have enough of them. To fix both things, NSW should buy their private owners.
theconversation.com/...
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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I wasn't considering the possibility of a tie. What I had in mind was something like party 1, 400, party 2, 110, party 3 80, party 4 60. Then a coalition of 3 and 4 could pick an opposition leader.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Exit polls better for Conservatives than most predictions, suggesting 131 seats. So, the two-party system staggers on.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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I don't think the case of a "hung opposition" has ever arisen: it requires at least three opposition parties. But there could be six in UK case (if I'm counting correctly) and seven if Sinn Fein decided to abandon abstentionism.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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According to Wikipedia, the Speaker (traditionally non-partisan in the UK, but normally a government member in Australia) decides who should be leader of the Opposition.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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In Western Australia, the main conservative party (Liberals) suffered a defeat so crushing that a rural conservative party (Nationals) became the official opposition. The two parties operate as a coalition nationally
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11...
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Could they form an alliance with SNP or Greens to bolster their numbers?
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Low inflation targeting is such a dubious idea. Why did the Reserve Bank adopt it in the first place?
open.substack.com/pu...
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Purpose: To build awareness of disinformation, and interest in building trust at a community level to do politics differently 2/2
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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I'll be speaking at event promoting an independent candidacy for the seat of McPherson Event title: Navigating Lies, Deepfakes & Fake News Time: Saturday 6th July, 2:00pm - 4:00pm including drinks, networking Location: Currumbin RSL 1/2
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Maybe not so bad that conservatives stayed in. Their voters just as likely to go to RN as to Macron, and more likely if RN vs left.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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A success on raw numbers ??? In what possible universe is the achievement of two low-level convictions in a year a worthwhile return on what we are paying these guys? This is another Albanese flop. #auspol
theconversation.com/...?'>786'>theconversation.com/...?
#auspol
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Would love to see this here
U.S. bans on gasoline-powered leaf blowers grow, as does blowback from landscaping industry apnews.com/article/g...
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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The left briefly mentioned way down showing where Macron stands, "lthough on Sunday Mr. Macron called for a “great democratic and republican union” to defeat National Rally, he has spent more time remonstrating with the left than with the far right: a surprising sense of priorities, one might think.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Striking that this piece doesn't even mention the option of a left-wing government. Literally unthinkable, it seems
www.nytimes.com/2024...
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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He should have. The RAN has ordered something similar.
www.news.com.au/technology/i...
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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If Roberts had benched Alito and Thomas for the Trump case and ensured Trump faced trial before the election, while also overturning Roe and Chevron, he would have had a chance at the (rightwing) greatness he aspired to. Now his name will be paired with Taney's forever.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Then, I think, unilaterally reinstate Roe and Chevron.
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Alexi Brooks
@alexibrooks.bsky.social
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Best I can come up with would be if Biden unilaterally relieved the 6 justices who signed into this decision from duty tomorrow. Given the circumstances, I think he could get senate Dems on board. Not great perhaps but not I think a disaster.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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I said that the article makes the point clear, and in my view it does, even if it ends by "raising the question" rather than giving an answer.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Trying to come up with a non-disastrous scenario for US democracy and failing. Suppose (unlikely) that the Dems manage a clean sweep in November. What next?
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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This regularly printed Sydney real estate story (uninhabitable dump sells for millions) misses the point, as usual. The worse the state of the property, the lower the risk that demolition will be prevented by heritage listing. www.news.com.au/fina...
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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A nice piece making it clear that "caucus solidarity" has no place in modern politics. If Labor had let it slide, one senator crossing the floor would have attracted no attention. Instead, it's a disaster on multiple levels. #auspol
t'>cant'>theconversation.com/...
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Macron's equivocation on 2nd round seems silly (in a very Macron way). No chance of a majority, so he's going to have to work with either Le Pen or Melenchon. If so he should pick one or the other and back them
Or is he hoping he can cobble together a majority w/o either @crookedfootball.bsky.social
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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I share all the characteristics you mention, except that I'm not religious (majority of our age group nominal Christians, I think).
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Thinking about this at national rather than global level is a central part of the problem.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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www.washingtonpost.c...
As is standard these days, attention shifts to equally impossible idea of a blockade. Given a bit more room, would admit that "blockade" in the standard sense isn't feasible either, move on to "grey zone" deniable attacks on shipping etc
2/2
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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www.washingtonpost.c...
As is standard these days, attention shifts to equally impossible idea of a blockade. Given a bit more room, would admit that "blockade" in the standard sense isn't feasible either, move on to "grey zone" deniable attacks on shipping etc
2/2
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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"China’s likely strategy is to overwhelm Taiwan with a massive attack with little warning, Paparo said". Yes, just assemble 100 000 troops, tanks etc with thousands of transports, in ports within easy reach of missile attack, while pretending its a New Year party. 1/2
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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"China’s likely strategy is to overwhelm Taiwan with a massive attack with little warning, Paparo said". Yes, just assemble 100 000 troops, tanks etc with thousands of transports, in ports within easy reach of missile attack, while pretending its a New Year party. 1/2
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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TIL that Biden's widely praised speech was delivered using a teleprompter. I guess there's nothing unusual about that - Trump does it too, and rambles if it isn't working. But seriously, why is being able to read aloud confidently a qualification for anything past graduating from elementary school
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Your eloquence convinces me. I'll block you so you never have to hear from me again.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Age gradient in conservative support not as steep as in UK, but still striking 2/2
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Quarterly aggregate of Newspolls (won't link to Oz), among voters 18-34, Greens + others (mostly, teal independents, I assume) 34%, Labor 33%, LNP 27%, One Nation 6%. #auspol
For 65+, its LNP 51%, Labor 33% (same as 18-34), Greens+Other 12% #auspol
(only 2% for Greens), One Nation 4
1/2
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Latest Newspoll has combined vote of Greens and Teals close to Labor. Not what #Albo was planning for, I'm sure #auspol
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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What matters now is the choice Macron makes. He can act on his words about the need for unity against RN, or he can continued trying to walk on both sides of the street. Backing Melonchon candidates where they can win might be unappealing, but it's the test he now faces.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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The stakes are high, which means the only thing that matters is to select the candidate with the best chance of beating Trump. That requires Biden to step aside now, and not attempt to determine his replacement. Either Harris or Whitmer has some chance, Biden near-zero,
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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The polls have consistently showed Biden losing. If he were far ahead, as he ought to be on the merits, no one would be panicking about a bad day. It's true that no one else polls well in hypothetical matchups. But Biden is a guaranteed loser. Time to roll the dice.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Left has agreed to drop out where it finishes third. So its really up to Macron now. If he does the same, RN is beaten. Most mainstream centre-right parties have failed this choice so far.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Seen today in reports on the UK * Immigration still too high * Not having enough babies Seeing this over and over, and not just UK
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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The debate was so bad that large groups of his own supporters have called on him to quit. Not just pundits. My son messaged me in despair told me not to watch and signed off #Whitmer2024. There’s no coming back from that
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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At this point, I'd roll the dice with Harris rather than face certain defeat with Biden.
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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An excellent debunking of the centrist account of "populism" as a symmetrical threat from left and right. foreignpolicy.com/20...?
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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Thames Water nationalisation plan could move bulk of £15bn debt to state www.theguardian.com/....
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c0nc0rdance
@c0nc0rdance.bsky.social
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I consider "not even wrong" to be the most devastating statement you can make about someone's idea or pet theory. It says that it doesn't even have the benefit of adding to our understanding of the universe by disproving a wrong hypothesis. It's a waste of time. Or in Pauli's own words:
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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If Kyrsten Sinema or Joe Manchin were the best chance to beat Trump, I'd support them as Dem candidates. Maybe not RFK jr
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John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social
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TIL that, in discussions of European energy policy, the term “renationalisation” is used to refer, not to the return of privatised firms to public ownership, but to a reassertion of national energy policy at the expense of integration.
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