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David Manning@dlmanning.bsky.social |
19 followers 17 following 521 posts
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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I’ve read all these replies. I have a masters degree in applied mathematics and I’ve taught statistics. I haven’t see a single solid argument that the polls are even “bad data.” I cannot believe the degree to which so many apparently intelligent people are willfully deceiving themselves.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Good talk
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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It is not. My point is “how do we know the data is bad?”
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Yes, as I said, I read that. I’m not sure at all what point you’re making, but honestly that’s fine.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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I’ve read the whole thread. I’m sorry I don’t know which “original post” you mean.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Is there some basis for ignoring that data that isn’t “well surely that can’t be?”
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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How do we know the data is bad? What’s the basis of the assumption that it’s less reliable than 4 years ago?
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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We know it’s bad data because it’s bad data?
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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I understand they aren’t your theories. I’m just very frustrated by the number of democrats fiddling as Rome burns.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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I mean look the problem with those “theories” is that they aren’t posited to explain evidence. It’s one thing when people try to explain voting demographics after the election. But this is just people reaching for reasons disbelieve data. It’s motivated by desire for a particular outcome.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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I wouldn’t call either of those “plausible.”
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Whatever effect Dobbs is having should be showing up in polls. Does anyone have a plausible explanation argument for why non-response bias has become massively favorable to Trump over the last 4 years?
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Putin should pay more attention to the polls then. Replacing Biden is the only chance of stopping Trump.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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What has that got to do with “I think Putin wants Biden replaced on the ticket?”
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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At least this way I can be enraged at EVERYBODY the day after the election.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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It’s absolute batshit insanity. Biden led Trump by a comfortable margin all through 2020 and we all remember how that went. But sure let’s pretend that between then and now landlines or whatever are swinging polls +8pts towards Trump. This is a full-on solipsistic mass-delusion.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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ISTG how stupid are all these people. You look at the polls and electoral college math. You observe that there’s essentially nothing Biden can do between now and Election Day to overcome his deficits. That’s it. That’s the ballgame. Eject while there’s still some chance to save the damned country.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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You’re guessing about the preferences of a dictator and then based an opinion on that guess?
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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I might be giving them too much credit, but I think it’ll be polling data that does it eventually. Or maybe the DNC is just every bit as feckless as they seem.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Nah I think the pressure is still building. More democratic leaders are calling for him to step aside every day.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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I *hoped* they’d start immediately grooming Kamala to run in 2024, but as soon as I heard she was being assigned to the “border crisis” I knew that wasn’t going to happen. One might have hoped the GOP could’ve found the spine to rid itself of Trump, but he will never voluntarily shut up.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Some of us only ever “liked” him because he appeared for a time to be the only person enough people would say “Ugh, fine” about to keep Trump out of the Oval Office.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Talks cheap, Dick.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Very little shelving in the wilderness.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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🎶First the mic, then the half cigarette…🎶
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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I need a probability density function on top of each of those intervals.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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You had me at “skull sawdust”
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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And yet no evidence of widespread voter fraud has ever been demonstrated. I will never understand why people harp on a thing that isn’t a problem.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Let’s be real. What people saying this want is for everyone to stop talking about their concerns about Biden’s electability.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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I think you’re supposed to send good vibes or something?
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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That’s not what I hear from your husband. 😀
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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This is exactly why all my mice are locally sourced from artisanal mousers.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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I don’t disagree with most of that, but I hope the man eventually decides to put his country over his personal pride and steps aside.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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So that’s closer to 1/4 than 1/3… This isn’t encouraging and I don’t think that number’s going to go down as more post-debate polls come in.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Do you have a link to that?
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Admittedly I do not have formal support for “single digits.” That’s a way of saying “sure it’s mathematically possible, but it’s not going to happen.” I don’t think it’s 1/3. You can’t just borrow Nate Silver’s estimation of Trump’s chances of victory in 2016 based on national polling gaps.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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a.) Trump is leading in national polls right now and has pulled further ahead since last week. Both Hillary and Biden led in the polls when they won the popular vote previously. b.) A popular vote victory is not even required for a decisive electoral college victory.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Every time I hear a Democrat say they think the polls are wrong I start research emigration processes.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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I’m honestly not even confident he’s going to win the popular vote at this point. Depends on how demoralized the dems are by Election Day and how well GOP voter suppression efforts work.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Wouldn’t it be rad if that was how you won the presidential election?
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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No it simply means enough of them stay home.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Trump’s base knows he nuts and they don’t care. It’s an arguably a pro for him. Is that fair or sane? Hell no, but that’s reality. All the “but Trump is worse than our candidate!” isn’t going to cut it.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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What we all saw last week was a man who often struggled to form sentences. We can debate if that’s a generally accurate characterization of his overall state, but it sure didn’t help when his staff tried to cover with “he’s usually reliable between 10am and 4pm.”
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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You are reasoning that because two electoral college maps are similar that the underlying vote distribution must be similarly close. It doesn’t work that way.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Kamala is certainly not my ideal candidate, but at least she can do unscripted events. She’s got a shot. The issue with Biden is that he literally does not have it in him to do what’s necessary to even attempt to repair the public’s perception.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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I don’t want to “doom” for four months. I want a viable candidate.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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Umm
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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We haven’t gone from anything to anything. We have been worried since the performance last Thursday that Biden just face planted into his biggest weakness and does not have it in him to recover. All the rhetorical gymnastics in the world are not going to change that.
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David Manning
@dlmanning.bsky.social
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That’s not true. Polls in swing states swung by an average of two points that Biden did not have.
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