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Quincey@flashesofquincy.bsky.social |
8 followers 59 following 304 posts
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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I work for a travel company that focuses on seniors. We had to change up our whole marketing approach as the Boomers replaced the Silent Generation. The latter had a very positive association with being elderly, whereas the Boomers have the opposite.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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The problem’s cognitive decline’s usually not something that happens in a linear manner. It’s kind of a process vs results question.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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The haters give the NYT way too much credit in assuming that they’re above farming for hate-clicks. They’re the people least upset that people are spending their whole holiday mad about the opinion piece they read.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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‘Armchair Psychologist’ is always a funny term. I’ve never witnessed one NOT be in an armchair.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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I think that’s an under-explored macro question. Maybe he’s just playing the part but a lot of ‘normal’, ostensibly intelligent people have all lost their minds in a very similar fashion, totally alienated their families etc etc.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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It’s not shits and giggles though. Odds are it’d be someone from a purple state with the idea that it’d provide a boost there amongst other reasons. Maybe you’re completely right, but you’d have to be 100% confident imo and I think we all can agree on that not being the case here.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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“The voters should decide who the next VP should be” aka the Garland reasoning.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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You also don’t want to be in one of the older brick building on the west coast when the big one eventually hits.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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I don’t think either of those are wrong, but I also think we still look at them and their business model as something other than a media app. If they were just trying to attract traffic, they’d be doing an admirable job.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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I think a lot of blame lies with Obama’s decision not to prosecute people for the torture program too.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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I have to imagine that inside the party none of these would be new questions or so you’d hope. Biden dying or being incapacitated at any point wouldn’t exactly be black swan event.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Lastly and most importantly, appealing to Black voters and ‘centrists’ looks virtually identical in practice in most of the country.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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On the flipside, the GOP’s had a number of truly historic and important losses due to their candidate being popular with primary voters but having no centrist appeal. They lost a Senate seat in Alabama etc etc.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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I guess it depends on what you mean. As an electoral strategy it’s been very successful the past 3 cycles.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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I understand the point, but projecting how a candidate will do in a general election and incorporating that into your calculus in early voting is as much a part of democracy as anything else.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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If you look at the current political situation in France there’s massive negotiations between candidates/parties in order to defeat the right wing parties.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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That’s not the point. Even in ‘better’ systems including RCV you still end up voting strategically based on future projections.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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The one thing we all should be able to agree on is that polls are always right.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Not to rehash 2020, but she’s a good example of how I think you do have to make some calculations. The Native stuff would have been a massive liability.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Even if it were feasible on paper, it’d still be contingent on surviving challenges in various state courts.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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There was also no way he would have gotten a black woman who didn’t have the classic qualifications through confirmation.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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He can give it to the DNC, or he can set up a Super PAC to support the new person. Since he’s won the primaries already there’s even less/no red tape.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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The other thing is it’s tough to thread the needle where he’s both unfit to run but is fit to be President for another 6 months.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Wasn’t that the subtext of the whole Biden 2020 campaign though?
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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If you’re going to make a move though this is the only move, which I had assumed was a settled matter. I have family members who are his age and we have contingencies in place should they die or rapidly decline. Seemingly these convos are happening for the first time?
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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That’s fair, but I also think the whole debacle we currently find ourselves in (the debate happening in the first place) is the result of some awful political instincts. He’s obviously still a guy capable of shooting himself in the foot despite all that.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Maybe? That would be based largely on projection though given the amount of momentum she was able to generate with them when she ran for President.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Especially as he’d be finishing out his term at age 86. Wouldn’t exactly be a black swan event if he didn’t make it.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Her primary went in a pretty similar direction though, with way more party support. You’re not wrong, but imo it’s an argument against changing course.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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It was ostensibly understood that he was running as a one-term President due to the urgency of the moment.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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It was shored up with the understanding that it was kicking the can down the road re: the future of the party due to the urgency of removing Trump.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Outside of Newsome (maybe) I’d guess less than 10% of Americans know what any of the other possible candidates even looks like.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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She’s also deeply unpopular with anyone you’d consider a GOP kingmaker outside of Trump. She had to switch districts this year and barely won her primary.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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I bartended for a long time so am very aware of the large number of people who have wildly conflicting political beliefs ie believing that taxes are theft but also healthcare is a right. I also met the people who LOVE the attention from saying they’re undecided and having people try to convince them
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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The best spin you can put on a lot of campaign choices is that I believe it’s highly likely that if you could crack the code on messaging to these people it would bear no resemblance to what I think a good campaign looks like.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Say what you will about Boebert, but she’s extremely unpopular with the establishment GOP block.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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These guys crucially aren’t ready to step up though. The first guy cited here is DeSantis. Boebert just narrowly won a primary and had to switch districts.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Not to say that these people don’t exist or I don’t unwittingly know them, but I think this person being so alien really induces a certain sense of insanity in the kind of person who’s really into the debates.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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I suspect I’m not alone in that I know people that are going to vote for Trump/Biden/not vote but I truly can’t imagine anyone I know is undecided and was watching the debate to see how spry they were.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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I think these guys are heckling him, as this was very much a Barstool culture thing that became a mainstream story. golf.com/news/bryson-...
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Which I’m aware of mostly because this ‘guy’ heckling DeChambeau on the course became a whole thing.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Things move fast, so wouldn’t bet the house on it but I thought DeChambeau was decidedly unpopular within this culture stemming from his Brooks Koepka rivalry.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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You gotta bring furniture, but the house is free!
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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From anecdotal experience it’s a catch all for a lot of wildly different jobs. You shouldn’t suppose to have any idea of what a person actually does based on the title alone.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Tangentially, watched the hockey playoffs the past few weeks and it’s always striking to see how many people define a game as fairly refereed based on the single metric of each team receiving the same amount of penalties.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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If history’s any guide, if you’re approaching 40 you’re *supposed* to have no idea who a bunch of pop culture figures are and it’s going to be an alienating experience.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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IMO a significant part of this if you’re a millenial is that the people who have historically driven pop culture (teens) are all objectively of a different generation.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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The one thing almost everyone agrees on regardless of how they feel about the tech is that public confidence is going to be a big uphill battle. You’d want to be hammering home all the ways in which you’d removed external risks (ie Joe Sixpack’s in charge of your car) at every turn.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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The interior of the car would be completely different than it is today, and you’d have different consumer options. Think limousine style seats facing each other vs something for pooling with strangers. The market for someone’s Model S would be nonexistent.
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Quincey
@flashesofquincy.bsky.social
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Almost certainly stuff like that will happen to some degree, but is the exact type of thing that’s exponentially easier to mitigate at scale.
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