FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar

FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)

@fpriorbis.bsky.social

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Highlights from Nick Gvosdev, editor of Orbis, FPRI's journal of world affairs (founded 1957). Connecting our pages to current events. RT not endorsement

FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Announcement on F-16s: "transfer ... are on their way." So, what does that mean in terms of timeline? Jets have been "transferring" for the better part of a year, it seems. Hope this is not another example of declaratives substituting for action.

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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At #NATO forum, SecState Blinken on Ukraine membership: "Our most value is building consensus — metaphor for future membership is a bridge that will be strong, well lit for Ukraine to join NATO. Fastest way to peace is to have a strong Ukraine." I’m sorry, this makes no sense to me.

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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And adding @radiofreetom.bsky.social’s thoughts in @theatlantic.bsky.social … www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/...

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Nahal Toosi's avatar Nahal Toosi @nahaltoosi.bsky.social
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MY NEW COLUMN: Is it smart for foreign leaders to ignore tradition and openly take sides in America’s election? Well… it’s not necessarily dumb. Check out my latest (and do read past the headline, please!): www.politico.com/news/magazin...

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Intersects with the palace politics paradigm as well. White House staff have a constituency of one, the President. If VPOTUS takes over for POTUS, would staff and policy priorities remain unchanged? Would POTUS cognitive frame continue to define? Truman, LBJ, Ford examples ... 4/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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If voters believe that people around the President are anxious to pursue their own policy preferences if the President cannot manage or supervise and that those preferences differ from what the President would want, then the "Mrs Wilson syndrome" becomes a concern. 3/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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We teach importance of understanding cognitive perspective of leaders. When voting for a candidate expectation is that the leader's cognitive perspective on policy will be stamped on the administration--in terms of faithful execution of wishes and priorities. 2/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Modi to Moscow: It is in India’s interest to strengthen and bolster a G0/SR strategy for Russia as opposed to continued movement towards Sino-Russian entente where Beijing calls the shots. Also test of U.S. ability to practice Martin Skold #ententediplomacy.

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Missing piece: Europe cuts a Yalta II deal with Moscow and regains access to large quantities of lower cost Russian commodities … think that has to be part of this scenario.

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Radley Balko's avatar Radley Balko @radleybalko.bsky.social
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My guess is that Trump knows very little about P25 *and* it will be the blueprint for his administration. He’s famously bored by policy. He’ll appoint these people because they’re loyal. They’ll then go to work on the plan while he grifts, golfs, and gives two-hour speeches at rallies.

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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This is a critical point … it is not about stopping overseas engagement but shifting it to a mercantilist, transactional approach.

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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It is that convening and shaping power that also makes think tanks attractive to lobbyists ... 2/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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In @politico.com Matt Berg highlights role think tanks play in ecosystem: "Think-tankers ... aren’t the ones making ... policy decisions, but they often contribute to the foreign policy debate by writing opinion pieces and hosting panels." 1/ www.politico.com/news/2024/07...

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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in achieving the Democratic Trade and Economic Partnership envisioned by MatthewKroenig & Ash Jain. But Seoul/Tokyo also had trilateral with Beijing … so some bet-hedging going on. 2/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Ambitious agenda Sec. Raimondo announced in meetings with Ministers Saito & Ahn for trilateral U.S.-Japan-ROK cooperation on supply chains, tech & 4th Industrial Revolution industries-with EU zooming in. Real test how we move to execution. If successful major step … 1/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Finding it hard to escape feeling that Ukraine/NATO is a lot like Turkey/EU process. Finding more ways to say "not now" without actually saying no. 3/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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for future funding after new fiscal year starts 10/1/24 or after new Congress is seated in Jan. 2025. U.S.-Ukraine security agreement remains an executive agreement not binding on future POTUSes and no sign Congress will enact into statute like Taiwan guarantees. 2/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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More confused now about what exactly #NATO summit plans to achieve. Don't understand what a "bridge" for Ukraine does that 2008 Bucharest or 2023 Vilnius guarantees of future Ukrainian membership don't. Don't see how a 2024 summit pledge is binding on Congress ... 1/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Seeing some interesting reporting about increased use of tunneling in the Donbass particular as a way to send forces underground to bypass fortified points ... can see a defense-related spinoff for Musk's Boring Company ...

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Finally, DC think tanks have to show that they can staff the Hill and the executive branch and that they have alumni networks in place. Or they have to make the case that they speak for a constituency and will remain true to that no matter whether their guys get in or not. 5/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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and shadow lobbying. Scarlet "L" looks bad so things always sound better coming from a "senior fellow." Brody Mullins' and Luke Mullins' Wolves of K Street lays out these changes. 4/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Coincides with emergence of new lobbying strategies: grass-tops (I don't lobby directly, but I put you in touch)--and you want talking points and research ready. Soft lobbying: think tank provides venue and intellectual cover (with razor-think disclaimers) ... 3/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Think tanks have moved from "we are universities without students" where endowment pays to "kill what you eat" models ... you have to convince donors that you can shape policy discussions in ways that align with their interests. 2/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Reviewing a piece John Sitilides will be publishing with us at @fpri.bsky.social on wide-ranging agenda #NATO leaders must confront at the summit. Opportunity for Biden to shine or for Harris to step up.

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Joel Hillison & Christopher Hickey distill the lessons from the successes, and failures, of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in preventing conflict and expanding the zone of security across the Euro-Atlantic region. 2/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Is Moscow deterred by Western action? Thomas Graham weighs the balance between realpolitik and messianism in the Kremlin’s approach. @Traininblank1 proposes an integrated deterrence strategy for Ukraine & its partners. 1/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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A trio of articles by Alma Keshavarz, Anthony Celso and Jay Mens: The pieces making up the “Skirting Deterrence in the Middle East” section examine Iranian strategies, limitations on Israeli responses and the overall impact on US. strategy.

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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John D. Maurer assesses how—with new technological advances, reliable, verifiable arms control might be strengthened. 2/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Some highlights: Kaili Ayers examines different approaches to deterrence to prevent a catastrophic collapse of the space infrastructure that we all rely on. Diane DiEuliis takes us into “inner space”—how we can bolster biosecurity as new advancements are made in biotechnology. 1/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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So much of U.S. policy is now executive action (Congress not declaring war, etc.) Presidents still will have great latitude in foreign matters (per Curtiss-Wright precedent) but so much, from #IPEF in trade to sanctions to security agreements, rest on executive authority ... 2/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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While #SCOTUS ending #ChevronDeference is viewed in terms of domestic regulation, majority decision calling on Congress to legislate clearly-and not pass general requests and leave it up to Executive Branch to define-could also have long-term foreign policy implications. 1/

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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)'s avatar FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev) @fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Keep in mind leaders like Netanyahu and Putin have been around the block ... the #debate signals how unpredictable the U.S. election will be. Think they and many other leaders will be hedging bets and taking "wait and see" as to what happens.

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