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Zeke Hausfather@hausfath.bsky.social |
@copernicusecmwf.bsky.social, using a linear regression over the past 30 years, finds a slightly later date of 2033. The difference between the regression and climate models-based approaches reflect an expectation of modest near-term acceleration in models: cds.climate.copernicus.eu/apps/c3s/app...
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath.bsky.social
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There is no single best way to assess when the world will likely pass 1.5C. But both Carbon Brief’s approach and those of other groups all agree it will most likely happen in the late 2020s or early 2030s in a world (SSP2-4.5) where global emissions remain around current levels.
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