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Jon close@joeyclose.bsky.social |
88 followers 632 following 740 posts
Wealth editor and formerly credit guy at with intelligence.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Also worth noting the reform vote number was practically the same as the UKIP vote number until 2015. It's also bound to happen if you're targeting a huge numbers of new seats and not doing it on a personality cult message.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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That's pretty much cobblers.
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Jon close
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Same, and if you're pushing for things to change, there's a world of difference between your minister saying 'I want to help but there's not much money' and basically 'I don't think government should help with that because I like small government'
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Which is all to say having the swing voter not vote against you is probably as important as getting your supporters to get out and vote for you in volatile times.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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And don't get me started on Zac f***Ong Goldsmith.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Obviously they didn't force the Tories to be idiots. But they took away the pressure valve.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Mostly true, but brexit was a mess then and yet they felt safe enough to call a snap election to reshuffle the deck. Which they haven't felt safe enough to do since 19, so I'd argue the bad outcomes are not entirely without labour influence
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Similarly with timing, Tories called two early elections against Corbyn, presumably partially because they thought they could win. Then held on for almost a full term because they didn't.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Oh yea, 'entirely' being literal. Reform taking Tory votes wasn't 100% out of Starmer's control. Corbyn arguably united the right against himself, Starmer probably intentionally split it.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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2017 and 2019 were also probably the exceptions in terms of Reform pulling votes, looking at UKIP votes too. Also targeting lots of seats vs safe seats is within labours control.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Not sure that entirely follows. People and parties voted tactically against Corbyn/for Tories, tactically for Starmer/against Tories. That's probably not an accident on Starmer's part.
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Jon close
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Yea, I guess. I just think as an editor, I can see why making a bold prediction makes the story more compelling and 'brave' but all of that goes away if there's no acknowledgement let alone consequences for being spectacularly wrong.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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when overturning a big majority like this, you'd put your limited resources deeper into Tory territory too, and to promote unfamiliar candidates. Meaning you'd spend less time getting the vote out in your safer seats. So you'd think there were easy wins in terms of vote count.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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I will never understand why these people keep making predictions and editors keep publishing them, without anybody saying 'the column works as just commentary without a prediction. And your predictions are clearly bad and make us look bad.'
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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I assume a lot of thinking of where parties go from here will depend on who wins the inevitable Tory civil war.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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I guess if you're overturning a big majority, you're putting more campaign resources into harder to win seats with little visibility, and are presumably understaffed. So I'd think Labour would naturally consolidate some of the vote % when they're defending rather than 'attacking.'
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Very much a choice between the two dullest bits of exciting things on TV right now.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Did he misread that? like it was supposed to be, '...how unremarkable it is that I became PM as grandchildren of immigrants'
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Think 'group of bald men fighting over a comb' might stick around a bit.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Printers are fascinating in that it's a technology where the possibilities seem to expand faster than our ability to make them work. As soon as they could print we added fax, then scan etc etc.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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"I wouldn't eat a human," *taps head,* "this little guy though. Can't get enough of em"
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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It's the worm talking, it needs to vary its diet.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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oh yea. Absolutely. I slightly worry some people will take it seriously and end up with that parallel universe you get in the US where people think East London is a no-go area or something.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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ugh, this is all funny, but you know how much they're going to be pretending like, normal government is the worst thing ever for the next four years.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Concepts wrong in here: Hell is where your soul goes, it doesn't destroy your soul. Horror films don't typically come from hollywood. the sickest minds in hollywood are very famously doing other things. 'one party systems' have one party.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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It was historically a whole thing I think. Before private booth, landlords and factory owners would get people too drunk to vote against them, or drunk enough to vote for anyone.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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I read something recently that basically said in WWI in particular death wasn't an issue for kids, almost everyone had dealt with a family member dying with dignity, so the gore really shocked them, but now the gore is fine, but the finality of death hits. So the impact on art maybe very different
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Ah right. An interesting thing we were looking into a few years ago was blending of sub and nav lending, (then presumably trying to pretend to investors it was still sub).
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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The chart in the image shows loans as a % of asset values falling slightly from 2020 to 2025 no? from 20% to ~19.5%
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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'the best meal I ever had was when I had that super duper good meeting where I made a very good joke in that client meeting at my hedge fund and there were sandwiches' seems very much on brand to me.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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favourite meal is sandwiches. Plural. I think he's saying that his favourite meal is those trays with a selection of sandwiches that caterers bring into board rooms and stuff.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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My main anecdote about the election in my new constituency where Labour are looking for a huge swing, is that it's incredible how much I haven't seen the Tory. Bumped into the Labour guy twice now, everyone I've spoken to says they haven't seen their MP all term. The national stuff barely comes up.
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Jon close
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Isn't that a slight dip as a %?
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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It does all sort of imply that we haven't reached the clear plan stage yet. 14 years in.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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luckily the Tories have chosen 'if Labour voters get out we're done for' as a campaign tactic now. So at least they're helping for once.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Could it just be the equivalent of Southgate saving subs till the 86th minute? Everyone including him knew it wasn't working, but he's just put off changing tack until as late as he possibly could because he doesn't like the new direction?
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Is there a particular conspiracy theory that she's going to do a Boris/May/Truss/Rishi or are they just implying it for vibes?
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Also, together they make her look particularly good at her job, or at least comfortable in a lot of situations.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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My guess is the polling isn't far off on the popular vote, but the margin for error of translating that to seats is huge.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Is it me or when he was a Dem it was all 'look at his bad ideas' but he starts taking Trump votes and its brain worms and dog eating?
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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(TBF by relative golden visa standards it's not that cheap, but in absolute terms it's a steal)
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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You can get a golden visa in Malta pretty cheap, which gives you EU citizenship.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Because it's a self-selecting criteria for people who blame others for shortcomings in general?
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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premium trial at no charge : the Donald Trump story.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Could do with more workers with the kind of necessary analytical skills tbh.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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The two things the Tories are inhaling.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Which is actually an apt metaphor for how dumb this is. Do they think the migrants are like detailed policy wonks who know that the UK is currently worse for them than france, but Labour would be better for them?
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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they clearly have propellers from the wakes, so it's not clear they're actually being pulled there. OTOH, they are zooming towards a rocky cliff. Also, why would they wait for a magnet if they have boats with engines.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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as someone who lives 5 minutes from that cliff, I can tell you that some of those boats appear to be coming from the middle of the Atlantic, I guess ultimately Brazil, while others are coming from Norway. The situation really is worse than we though.
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Jon close
@joeyclose.bsky.social
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Like 'thats weird, you dance to music and look at pictures in a gallery, ours is the other way around. No idea how that came about I don't do either, I'm just an astronaut and that's all the same as here'
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