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Marcus Beyer@meteomabe.bsky.social |
50 followers 21 following 82 posts
#Forecaster and Hobby #Gardener | Works at German Weather Service: operational forecaster and supervisor.
Especially interested in climatologies, #synoptics, #severeweather and #tornados.
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meteoHRO - Wetter MV
@meteohro.bsky.social
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ℹ️ Der zurückliegende 12-Monatszeitraum war gebietsweise so nass wie noch nie seit Aufzeichnungsbeginn. In West- #Mecklenburg teils um 1.000 l/m² seit Juli 2023. Langj. Durchschnitt sind dort etwa 650 l/m².
#Boizenburg mit Messreihe seit 1888, neuer Rekord für Zeitraum Juli-Juni:
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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June 2024 was almost 1.4 K warmer than 1961-1990, only 0.4 K warmer than 1991-2020, but a very cool first month of the summer compared to 2021-2050. #climatechange
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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An exceptionally warm June night, especially in the E and SE Germany. A new all-time record was set in Dresden-Hosterwitz with a minimum of 23.8°C (previously: 22.8°C, measurements since 1949), in Regensburg a monthly record was set with 21.4°C (previously: 21.3, since 1879).
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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ICON-D2 art ... LPI spaghetti plot.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Locally a lot of rain has already accumulated close to the Alps (here radar precip sum), measured 122 mm in Kruen. And a lot of rain is about come with enhanced local #flashflood risk! Map shows 06 z run of ID2. Last map shows the spread for each gridpoint ID2 EPS #severeweather
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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A lot of rain expected for parts of W and C Europe during the upcoming week (RR240h, ECMWF, run: 14.06. 00 UTC).
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Perfect example of a linear hodograph that equally supports left and right moving #supercell|s. SRH+ and SRH- almost the same! #uwde #uwby #uwbw
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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I am still flashed when looking on this radar precipitation sum. Such high amounts of precipitation over such a big area. Still incredible to see! #hochwasser
0 replies 2 reposts 7 likes
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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In the meantime models are in a good agreement about the upcoming intense rain event (e.g. compare ICON and ECMWF EPS probabilities). That will probably have some major impact having in mind the large area of heavy rain! #Hochwasser #inondations
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Excessive precipitation expected for parts of S and E Germany especially for the end of this week and the upcoming weekend. Although model differences for exact placing and intensity exists, EFI from ECMWF already shows a strong signal for days 3-7. Basis: run 28.05. 00 UTC.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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What a wonderful photo of a storm near Dresden last Monday (20.05.2024) from my colleague Karolin Eichler!
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Development of the general weather situation until Thursday, with a developing low pressure zone over Germany in the coming hours. This is triggered by the UL flow and moving slowly N(W)ward, bringing excessive precipitation to some areas from SE Germany into W Germany . #Lisa
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Still increased uncertainty for the upcoming possible excessive precipitation event in parts of central Europe (including SW Germany (Tuesday/Wednesday). Exact development of the surface low still uncertain
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Derzeit beides wunderbar über Deutschland zu sehen: bsky.app/profile/mete...
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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So thats what I would call a strong signal for excessive precipitation and possible #flooding. #severeweather #Katinka
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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#Climatechange in a nutshell. Germany currently between #drought and wildfires in NE half of Germany and risk of a major #flooding event in SW parts due to excessive precipitation.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Seems quite likely that 2024 will be in TOP3 of warmest springs since records started.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Interesting setup: N of the Alps some #supercells and later on a developing MCS. Large hail and severe winds and enhanced risk of tornadoes in parts of Ukraine and Belarus. Severe weather expected for parts of Middle East. Whatsmore: Few #severe storms E Spain and a landspout risk for NW France.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Excessive precipitation expected tomorrow for part of Germany. It starts in the afternoon hours an will persist during the night. For the E Rhein-Main area (my place) the ID2 EPS 18 z median has even 30 l/qm in 6 h and a probability of 45% for >60 l/qm.
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Katharina Nocun
@kattascha.bsky.social
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Direkt vor der Europawahl wird ein breites Bündnis nochmal ordentlich Druck von der Straße gegen Rechtsextremismus machen - das ist eine wirklich wichtige Initiative! Merkt Euch bitte die lokalen Termine vor!
12 replies 368 reposts 568 likes
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Just art...
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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#Supercells can have a wide range of sizes.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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That looks really bad for fruit and strawberry growers in many parts of Germany and the neighboring countries where trees are in full blossom or small fruits have already built (e.g. my peaches). #Aprilwinter #frost
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Everybody is looking for the cold front of #Yupadee. However, LL wind profiles in E Germany / W Poland in the warm sector also look quite interesting with low topped convection forecasted in that area late afternoon / evening. #renata
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Likelyhood of a significant passage of the cold front on Monday is increasing. ICON-D2 EPS 00 UTC shows several members with >Bft10 gusts. Worth monitoring keeping in mind leafy trees. #Yupadee
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Here is the final "Grünlandtemperatursumme" up to the end of March. Only 1994 was a bit higher. Frankfurt cracked the 500 mark on April 1st this year. In the meantime we have already reached >650K.
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Ryan Cox
@coxitron.bsky.social
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7 years of planning went into this moment
96 replies 1104 reposts 4645 likes
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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06 April 2024: The first hot day of the year (30 degrees), rape fields and apple trees in full bloom and swarms of cockchafer beetles in the evening The new normal...
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meteoHRO - Wetter MV
@meteohro.bsky.social
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ℹ️🌪️Ein #Tornado- Verdachtsfall an der #Müritz. Gestern gegen 20 Uhr am Südende der #Gewitter- linie. Glücklicherweise dort nur Vegetationsschäden und kein bewohntes Gebiet betroffen.
www.nordkurier.de/regional/mue...
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Beautiful ending of a memorable Easter.
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wetterblogAT
@wetterblogat.bsky.social
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Der nächste rekordwarme Monat in Österreich. Der zweite in Folge. Der vierte in den letzten 12 Monaten.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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In einem Monat kann viel passieren... 😉
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Yesterday two low topped #supercell|s were active over Germany. One over N Germany and another in N Hesse.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Today, 11 years ago, there was quite some snow and minima clearly below -10 degree in some parts of Germany. #winter
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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The current "Grünlandtemperatursumme" (sum of positive daily mean temperature since start of the year, measure for the development status of the vegetation) for Frankfurt is still on record course. #Fruehling
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Ed Hawkins
@edhawkins.bsky.social
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Yes, it has been very wet in England over the past 18 months. The wettest on record (since 1836).
1 replies 32 reposts 47 likes
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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March and February 2024, both in the TOP10 of warmest March months since records started? Looks reasonable when using the forecasts for the next two weeks. Also extended outlooks of ECMWF point to this. Not excluded that March may even reach a new all time record.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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2023 was another year below average concerning the number of #tornados in Germany. Only 33 tornados were confirmed, so far. 13 of those were waterspouts. Here are the current #tornado stripes showing the development of tornadoes in Germany of the last 25 years. #showyourstripes
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Current status of vegetation. Many weather stations have in the meantime passed the 200 K threshold of the so called "Grünlandtemperatursumme" (which is a measure for start of vegetation). Many (here Frankfurt/Main) are on record path.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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There are many stations in Germany with a new minimum record of #frost days and most days with maximum of ≥10°C. One of many examples: Geisenheim, no frost days so far and only two days with maximum ≤10°C. #Frühlingsfebruar
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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This is a hit list of the warmest months of March since records started. #February 2024 will probably end up in the top 10.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Not Bad. 🙂 Leipzig Machern Leipzig Toulouse Leipzig Offenbach Hanau
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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What a fitting caricature from @thomasplassmann
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Is this really #winter? Frankfurt examplarily: Only days around mid Jan were below average. Current mean (last 3 weeks) comparable with mean of mid March. Next days will be even warmer. Frankfurt: Already 3 new daily records for Mean, 3 for Min and 5 for Max! #Februarfrühling
0 replies 3 reposts 6 likes
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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What a wonderful #winter day in #Hanau. I am already missing it. ❄️
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Finally a bit of #snow.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Tomorrow will be an exceptional black ice situation.Do you remember the last comparable weather situation? It happened 11y ago... 20.01.2013 (surface low #Gong). This is an article about the event: www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/Ereignis/201... Photos were taken by me in #Hanau. #Glatteis #IRENE
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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The good part of flooding... Natural ice rink on the Main meadows.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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Ich unterstütze den Aufruf und habe heute an meinen Bundestagsabgeordneten geschrieben.
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Marcus Beyer
@meteomabe.bsky.social
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That will be an interesting (#severe) weather situation on coming Wednesday. Heavy #snowfall and black ice are both possible. This is ECWMF 12 UTC. Exact postion unclear but somewhere over the middle of Germany.
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