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Sins of a Swoler Empire@mightycw.bsky.social |
135 followers 321 following 1567 posts
millennial dad
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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i think the latest line is that the media will be mean to Harris too, so we might as well stick with the guy who’s definitely going to lose
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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don’t worry, I’m assured by 75% of bluesky that this doesn’t matter, for some reason
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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the best argument I’ve seen is “we’re losing by less than you’d expect for a doomed campaign!” but nobody can chart a plausible path for how it turns around. Personally I’m hoping Trump has a stroke.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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it’s wild to see people backing themselves into “journalists should simply repeat bare facts, trying to synthesize or explain them is illegitimate.”
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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just kidding, I’m not a maniac, I don’t endorse adult violence against children. I’m going to teach my kid to do the stunner himself
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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at a weekend family reunion and one of the older cousins keeps stealing my three year old’s toys from his hands and making him cry. Some might question my impartiality but I’m gonna give this little shit a stone cold stunner pretty soon
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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In fairness, to extend the analogy even further it would also say “since then i have driven to the grocery store a few times without incident and it’s really unfair that people keep bringing up the wrong-way thing”
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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Lot of folks have fully internalized the campaign’s “just a bad day” messaging, so the analogy is not “last time i drove I blew through a red light, barely missed a pedestrian and somehow ended up driving against traffic for a block”
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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then yep let’s ask him to step aside in favor of his perfectly capable running mate. If this sets a bad precedent for the future then we’ve got bigger problems
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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but sure, I’ll say it with my chest: when you’ve got a historically unpopular candidate who is nearly universally perceived to be too old with a hostile media and little chance of improving that perception, and when the opponent is a tinpot fascist, to whom you’re losing with four months left…
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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it’s actually a point or two or three or four or five or six, depending on the poll and the state. This in a country where we need to be, what, at least +2 nationally to overcome EC maldistribution? But you’re correct, we were, briefly, tied before the debate.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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*qualitative
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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Fortunately the opponent is likewise unpopular and polarizing, which to me pretty easily explains the relative lack of poll movement. But we’re still losing, handily.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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I do not think Biden stepping down would be costless so i can’t rebut that, but if you think “our historically unpopular candidate is losing by only a little more than he was before the debate” is compelling then that’s a quantitative judgement and we’re just gonna have to disagree.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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✅ Downplaying an avalanche of unfavorable polls ✅ Blaming media for amplifying candidate’s weaknesses ✅ Outright denial that candidate’s weakness (age, wealth respectively) is a real problem
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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Back in 2012 i lived in a heavily Mormon part of eastern Idaho and the resemblance between Romney 2012 enthusiasts and Biden 2024 Dems is a bit uncanny
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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even moreso than twitter, bluesky has neither the reach nor the ability to penetrate the collective consciousness of the unengaged, barely sentient undecideds whose opinions will ultimately make the difference. Might as well yell at each other to pass the time.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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it's not "we" I'm worried about. But, it's what it is.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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At the end of the day there’s only one guy who can stop what’s probably coming, and he’s not on Bluesky. Alas.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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underrated that Harris has the chance to make the campaign feel *fun*. Even folks who want Biden have to realize it's a guaranteed slog, filled with infighting and constant frustration. That's demoralizing even if you're die hard team blue.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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Sigh. Stick your head in the sand if it helps you sleep. Doesn’t matter, won’t change anything. Only one guy can do that and he’s not on Bluesky.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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Here’s where you respond “but he’s had so and so public appearances since and has been fine” and I’m telling you it. does. not. matter. The perception problem won’t get better and will get worse if and when he has more off days. That’s all anybody will remember.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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Insane comparison. Obama’s debate was orders of magnitude less bad and did not appear to confirm every negative perception the general public had about the guy going in, in the most stark manner.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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more accurately, a “how voters perceive the candidate” problem. And he has no realistic path for improving that perception besides hoping Trump completely self-immolates.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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Polls are *not* stable, the averages have dropped two percentage points in the last week, and Biden’s negatives are up across the board. This is a voter problem.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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folks on here acting like nobody thought Biden was too old until the Times told them to
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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that doesn't mean the media isn't or wont continue to be a problem. But if that's the primary diagnosis then we're well and truly fucked no matter what. Which, in a weird way is also an argument for throwing a Hail Kamala.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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I just think there's a fundamental disagreement here, I see people arguing that this is effectively Swiftboating all over again; that is, a media problem. And I think it's much, much worse than that, but ironically, much simpler to alleviate. Just depends on the judgement of one guy.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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I mean, is the complaint that Biden doesn't get to choose the grounds on which the election is contested, or that he stumbled badly in his first and most public attempt to do so? Like, I too would prefer more media focus the threat of Trump, but that doesn't make the second thing any less true!
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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"Biden is too old" was already a pop culture meme, the debate just offered a stark demonstration that a lot of normal liberal viewers were completely unprepared for. Say what you like about Sulzberger and co. but the freakout was mostly organic!
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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the worst part about the last week was the bullshit coincided with a patellar tendinitis flare up which really fucked up my lifting routine.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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important update: As of today I can perform bodyweight squats without pain. Surely this is a sign from THE LORD to rush right back into my training regimen.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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she seems pretty cool, my brain completely glossed over the reference to her. I don't see much value assigning leftness points to people operating in very different offices and political contexts, tbh
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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the butterfly meme but leftists are like "is this a cop?" and rightists are like "is this a communist?"
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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I think this goes way beyond bad faith media elites and neurotic high-info Dem and dem-adjacent voters. If anything, we're all irrelevant. I'll vote for Biden if he's literally a gaseous corpse. But it's not my social media bubble that worries me.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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i think people are yelling at the Times and Bill Maher and various high profile bad faith actors because there's no mechanism for yelling at dumb low info swing voters, and they want to cut it off at the source. Won't happen! Biden Too Old has broken contain.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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Yes. But that's not what I'm talking about.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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what are we lowly posters supposed to *do* about this, idk man, hug your love ones, post through it, and vote blue, but the level of denial I'm seeing is kinda staggering
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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lot of people I follow seem to think "Biden too Old" is a New York Times creation which, uh, honestly, seems slightly delusional to me. The narrative is extremely overdetermined at this point. It's pop culture. Fair or not, that genie's not going back in the bottle.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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Sanders running as an outsider was a huge boost for his campaign! He wildly overperformed thanks in part to establishment shenanigans, real or perceived. If anything it was Martin O'Malley and the other "insider" candidates who were screwed by Clinton taking over the DNC, but nobody cares about them
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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I agree with pretty much everybody pointing out the difficulties and perils of Biden dropping out, but it seems pretty clear that the "lol debates don't matter" argument is pure cope, just whistling past the graveyard.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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how is this any different than *random ten thousand monkey gibberish on a typewriter*
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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if anything, the fact that her campaign was able to become so enmeshed with the national party in just a few years' time (and then evicted just as quickly) is evidence of the DNC's *weakness*
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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I mean, "Clinton loyalists in DNC used the levers at their disposal to her advantage" is in no way incompatible with primary voters ultimately preferring her by a decisive margin. Those levers were ultimately not very consequential!
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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Michele Obama
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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bullying works
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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of course conservative media is to blame, but so are they for so readily believing it (and by extension, so is every conservative). I know the values they professed to raise me with and I don't think they understand the degree of bitterness I feel towards them.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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recent conversations with my parents really underscored for me the extent to which rank-and-file cons have been propagandized into believing that Trump is in every respect an innocent man, albeit with a few rough edges, while Biden is actually running a criminal empire.
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Sins of a Swoler Empire
@mightycw.bsky.social
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the presence of short, double-spaced declarative sentences is an incredibly useful heuristic for determining that somebody is an asshole.
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