mr. implausible

mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 21:31 UTC

does nyc have resident permits in some form? i can’t remember from when i lived in brooklyn almost 20 years ago.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 21:15 UTC

here’s a polling analogue to that quote…

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 20:48 UTC

this is why “biden has to run a perfect campaign from here on out” takes are/were dumb murc’s law strikes again.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 20:19 UTC

the “trump moderates on abortion” type stories completely blow up the “Biden dropping out will allow the media to devote more time to trump’s evils” theory. maybe they’ll have more column space for trump stories, but those stories will be filled with lies and spin.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 17:51 UTC

“why do i have to pay for parking?” turns into “why can’t i find a spot?” from the L: it ultimately puts money in the hands of the rentiers who own private lots instead of the government from the R: it’s bad for retail bc employees who get there before the biz opens will take the street spots

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 17:39 UTC

this is the reason for the pivot to “the debate itself isn’t the real problem, it’s the media’s reaction to the debate”

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 16:39 UTC

if you believe biden’s campaign team has failed him, why would you want a new candidate to stick with those people?

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 16:36 UTC

these are all individuals with their own opinions, agendas, and inner circles. you don’t just pick up the cardboard cutout of biden, insert one of pritzger, and everything else just hums along as it has been. my guess is that it would take at least a month to spin up a campaign; maybe less w harris

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 16:08 UTC

no Democrat in the replace Biden camp has any real leverage because they do actually want to defeat trump. they know it, which is why this has turned into a full-court press.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 14:02 UTC

and if the decision has been made to switch but they’re trying to retool (or waiting for the right moment to announce), the right strategy is to keep going on as if biden were staying in.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 13:34 UTC

it’s a scenario that forces the Biden camp to be the adults in the room… a dynamic i frankly am getting sick of… throw a temper tantrum and then expect the people you’re screaming at not to react when it turns out you were wrong.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 13:27 UTC

and what happens if we switch to Harris and polls drop 3-4 pts? i don’t even want to think about it, honestly. it would take a lot of party discipline just to weather that given how the pro-switch folks are reacting to the tiny post debate dip.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 12:59 UTC

thought about blocking him a few times, but for a while it was amusing watching him punch above his weight and get clowned every time. & i try not to block bc of good faith disagreement finally blocked him because trolling, getting blocked, and acting like you won because of it is pissbaby behavior

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 04:46 UTC

if i ever care about bsky lunchroom drama this much please tell my wife to pull the plug (please note that this is a metaphor; don’t kill me just delete my account)

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 04:27 UTC

nah that guy is off his rocker & kind of amusing this guy is just pathetic nick bauer, doctor of philosophy

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 03:53 UTC

he’s been annoying as shit in a lot of people’s mentions (including people who are trying to hash this all out in good faith)

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 02:03 UTC

at the very least the parkinson’s story still works in that universe.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 00:34 UTC

same, except i don’t have the discipline to check out

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 00:29 UTC

thank you.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 23:11 UTC

there have been a few times I’ve had to resist making a 27-3 reference in your mentions. glad you did it for me.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 22:58 UTC

I think I’m on the same page with a lot of people in this thread when I say “if he actually has a degenerative disease and the debate was only the tip of the iceberg, he should be replaced” but none of us fucking know that!!!!! we have to trust that the people around him are doing the right thing.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 22:54 UTC

Biden and Harris have basically the same approval % on 538. the difference is Biden has 5pt higher disapprove. based on past history I have my guesses as to what would happen to her numbers if she became the nominee

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 22:48 UTC

… which might be enough! but by “in a vacuum” I mean “smooth transition” + nothing coming out that hurts the new nominee. like if you magically swapped nominees and erased everyone’s memory that Biden even ran

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 22:47 UTC

right. people have blinders on, looking only at Biden as a candidate and his specific weaknesses. a lot of this is due to perceptions of the economy, which switching candidates won’t change. my gut is “in a vacuum” swapping in any other credible candidate is at most 2pt bump (cont.)

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 22:39 UTC

and as I’ve said before I think most people pushing to replace him realizes the clock is running out, which is why there’s been such a frenzy.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 22:36 UTC

this is the really insane thing to me. we are dealing with a lot of uncertainty on both sides of the debate, and some people are just so confident about it. to me there is much greater uncertainty in replacing Biden, which is why you’d better be damned sure he’s going to lose before you do it.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 22:24 UTC

a family friend sent our toddler a track suit and now I want to dress her up like paulie walnuts for halloween

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 20:32 UTC

this is exactly the kind of creative thinking I’m talking about! you’ve got a bright future in this biz, kid!

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 19:50 UTC

I imagine NYT would hold the big “inside the chaos behind the nominee switch” exposé until October.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 19:45 UTC

right now there’s a time crunch to get Biden out, which is why the media has turned on a firehose. switching nominees would let them turn the water down to a drip… sit on some juicy stories until October… which you know they love!

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 19:44 UTC

someone making the argument is that “Biden old” is taking up space that could be dedicated to “Trump is a fascist” needs to be a little more creative about what else could potentially fill that space. I believe in the ability of our press to stretch out palace intrigue—Dems in disarray over 4 mos

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 19:29 UTC

“why isn’t the campaign talking about this thing people are talking about organically?” is a q that answers itself. I also bet they were saving it until after the RNC to avoid exactly what’s happening now (attempts to soften the party platform)

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 15:55 UTC

man those numbers seem familiar…

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 15:51 UTC

the rebuttal to that is the downside risk of replacing him is extremely high, so you better be damned sure he’s completely out of the race before doing it.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 15:43 UTC

who was it here that said “polls are not a scoreboard”? that’s a pithy way of summing up this idea.

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 15:39 UTC

this is the uniform of a soldier in the war against fascism

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 12:26 UTC

I grew up in politics. my dad was a city manager for most of his career (including a stint in a wealthy ultra liberal town). the line he used with new electeds getting over their skis was “do you want to *do* good, or do you want to *feel* good?”

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mr. implausible @mr-implausible.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 02:28 UTC

are you trying to say that the neurologist was holding meetings about Biden without Biden in attendance? because that’s the only logical ground left if Biden has not seen a neurologist outside his annual physical.

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