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Michael Tae Sweeney@mtsw.bsky.social |
I've wondered specifically about this automatic-spam-call-blocker aspect of The Polling Issue, and whether we're like, sampling only people who have old or shitty cell phones or something?
13 replies 24 reposts 156 likes
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cdpositive
@cdpositive.bsky.social
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I've been suspicious of polls ever sense 2016. Self limiting respondents (blocked/ignore unknown calls, caller ID, recontact numbers that answer, etc.) & small sample size is just not representative. Then the MOE is ignored when the change is 2-3-5% and yet the media is headlining them for clicks.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Dan
@dwatson.bsky.social
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i’ve responded to local polls by text message
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Gordos52
@gordos52.bsky.social
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We are sampling elderly people with land lines who answer calls from people they don't know. Which is why polling absolutely blows. And why 'polls say Biden behind by 3 points'. That means nearly half of the traditional GOP base favors Biden. And why I ignore polls.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Michael Tae Sweeney
@mtsw.bsky.social
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I don't really have a good explanation of why that group would be unusually Trump-supporting or whatever but I don't really know how to get around the fact that myself and a lot of people like me will literally never even see a call from a pollster if they attempt one?
6 replies 0 reposts 57 likes
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CatFrat
@catfrat.bsky.social
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My call history is at least 75% unanswered calls labeled “potential spam” or “junk”
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Mark Shatraw
@markshatraw.bsky.social
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Looking at my call history is *wild* - it's a ratio of about eight automatically blocked calls to one real phone call. I can't imagine any pollster actually being able to get through to me even if they wanted to
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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@pouncingbullfrog.bsky.social
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The only situation in which I would answer an unknown phone number would be if I'm unemployed. I wonder how that's biasing things
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Mezentine
@mezentine.bsky.social
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I'm really trying not to fall into the "all the polls are wrong" trap but I am convinced that something very weird is going on
0 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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Jennifer Van Goethem
@jennvg.bsky.social
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I set my phone to not ring if it’s not a number in my phonebook. I’m uh not a youth.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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MaoCat
@maocat.bsky.social
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Every time I see a poll for literally any country, my head goes through all of these kinds of possibilities. I do see spam calls here and there, but oftentimes even setting up my central office AM will just delete certain numbers. It will show a missed call alright, but the number disappears.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Angry Cephalopod
@jephalopod.bsky.social
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You know who answers their phone? Job seekers
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Chris
@ebfg.xyz
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Not even shitty old phones. T-Mobile does this at the network level if you opt-in.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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bettybarcode
@bettybarcode.bsky.social
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I suspect that what most polls tell us these days is which candidates old folks with land lines prefer
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes