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George Pearkes@peark.es |
If there is a "new" seasonal trend where continuing claims rise faster in this part of the calendar but that hasn't been captured in the seasonal adjustment algo, that would make seasonally adjusted claims look higher than they are. And we know what the SA factors are! 8/n
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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As shown in the chart below, the SA factor for the current week's data is very stable despite what looks like a persistent seasonal shift. Does this fully explain the rise in claims? Not necessarily, but it's a major confounding factor. My interpretation: labor market slowing, not collapsing. 9/n
1 replies 1 reposts 11 likes