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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Totally different era of polling tbf.
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George Pearkes@peark.es |
3156 followers 472 following 11227 posts
Macro Strategist | Econ, macro, home cooking, & the occasional cocktail | Even the blind squirrel get a nut sometime. | QCR: Non Culto | American via Canada, not Scottish. *ALL CAPS HEADLINES LIKE THIS ARE FROM BLOOMBERG đź“Ť CLT NC
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Totally different era of polling tbf.
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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How every new federal rule making will go from now on. *FTC BAN ON WORKER NONCOMPETE AGREEMENTS DELAYED BY JUDGE
3 replies 14 reposts 35 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Yes! It’s impossible.
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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There are good polls and bad polls but I don’t see how any pollster relying on phone calls is able to provide a representative sample with these kinds of numbers. It’s not a criticism of any one pollster, just an unfortunate reality.
4 replies 6 reposts 25 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Yeah I was thinking age when elected to first VP term.
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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I’m not really disagreeing. I’m just thinking out loud!
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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So basically, the age cap would be mid 50s. Maybe 56 at the oldest?
2 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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What’s the maximum age for a potential candidate then?
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Sorry I’ll try and stop it.
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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*CDC: 4TH HUMAN CASE OF H5 BIRD FLU TIED TO DAIRY COW OUTBREAK *CDC: FOURTH HUMAN CASE OF H5 BIRD FLU IDENTIFIED IN COLORADO
1 replies 3 reposts 11 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Ed do you agree that the 7 minute thing (if true) is egregious? If you don't believe this very specific claim that's fine, no real way to falsify that.
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Eh i mean the editorializing which was significant. see for example: bsky.app/profile/did:...
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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well first off you're citing a different seat estimate which is much higher than the one I did lol
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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part of this is structural, real Mitterrand hours
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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I think he'll lose the gamble but the left and France will win it
1 replies 0 reposts 12 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Meanwhile in France, polling models that take account of the dropouts post-first round suggest a completely different result than the as many as 300 RN seats that were predicted after the first round. Huge. *FRANCE'S LE PEN GROUP WOULD GET 190-220 SEATS: BFM CITES HARRIS
2 replies 6 reposts 34 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Yellow journalism. Really, if you're mad at anyone other than the oligarchy of elites here, I don't know what to tell you.
2 replies 2 reposts 31 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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I would simply not run out of gas or battery charge, because I am an adult. Skill issue.
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Please read down-thread where I discuss DCFC charging in my area. thx
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Very cool to see Mark Cavendish win a record 35th Tour de France stage just now. Incredible sprinting to navigate his way up front in the final few hundred meters.
2 replies 1 reposts 11 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Okay we also need to find a custodian.
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Sure if you operate under the assumption that you don't ever want to go and charge while you shop etc. Many, many options like that (again sensitive to geography of course)
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Pricing has moved significantly over the last few hours, yes. Want me to refresh the quote?
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Right but we're not talking about people that haven't used EVs, we're talking about people that have adopted. And I get why someone w/o experience would balk, but the change is so easy when you actually do it!
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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It's pretty self-explanatory
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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IDK where you live (because it's genuinely uneven, especially with respect to cost in say, Cali) but in Charlotte I have a great fast charger 5 minutes from my house that costs like 20 cents/kWh. And lots of other charging options too.
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Wait hold on, a hybrid doesn't need outside charging, what are you talking about?
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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If you're of the view that ABC is going to publish a "heavily edited" version of the interview George Stephanoupolis as spin/cover for him at this stage you haven't been paying attention lol
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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there's a difference between "charging in the US isn't perfect" and "a third of EV drivers how no idea how charging at home works".
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Katie Martin
@katie0martin.bsky.social
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"it is time for Labour"
www.thesun.co.uk/news/2893509...
2 replies 2 reposts 10 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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It's so easy! there's a tax credit! It's a tiny fraction of the cost of gas for most people. I'm incredulous at all this.
2 replies 0 reposts 14 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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13% of people are utterly deranged
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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true! but tbh since I went electric I have never once felt anything other than pure contempt for ICE vehicles. you can take my EV truck from my cold, dead hands.
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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I'm not saying the McKinsey study is wrong, I just don't get what is going through peoples' heads. Many, many such cases.
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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This is genuinely crazy to me. We're a 100% EV house, and charging is *sometimes* a *minor* issue when we do 3+ hour drives to other states.
19 replies 5 reposts 81 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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I think the point is that if the events of the weekend go like the debate, he will drop. If they don't, he won't. Don't you think that's the meaning?
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Wait you're saying the NYT is engaging in aggressive spin to promote a narrative it has pursued with ruthless consistency for six days now?
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Right.
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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yep. I also think you can read it as "well if we give the same impression as the debate again we're toast" which, I mean, sure!
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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I would heavily discount this based on the source but FWIW *BIDEN TOLD ALLY HE IS WEIGHING WHETHER TO CONTINUE RUNNING: NYT
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Not at all.
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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I'm sure he's seen both it and this bsky.app/profile/pear...
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Well that is punchy! 4th-largest draw of the past 5 years. *CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES FELL 12.16 MLN BARRELS, EIA SAYS
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Heritage thinks they can pursue a legal strategy to keep [not Biden] off the ballot. The analyses I've seen suggests that would be unsuccessful and that the major parties have broad latitude over ballot access under all state law. So "Heritage will mess with [not Biden]" is speculative, but possible
2 replies 0 reposts 8 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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yeah but meanwhile S&P global's equivalent index was the highest since April of 2022 lol
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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Wow! *US JUNE ISM SERVICES PMI FALLS TO 4-YR LOW OF 48.8; EST. 52.7
2 replies 1 reposts 8 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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If this sort of intellectual puzzle is interesting to you, welcome to the world of business or market economics. Understanding, analyzing, and interpreting data is what we do. It's constantly moving and there's always something interesting to look at. Basically: I love my job! 10/10
0 replies 0 reposts 16 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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As shown in the chart below, the SA factor for the current week's data is very stable despite what looks like a persistent seasonal shift. Does this fully explain the rise in claims? Not necessarily, but it's a major confounding factor. My interpretation: labor market slowing, not collapsing. 9/n
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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If there is a "new" seasonal trend where continuing claims rise faster in this part of the calendar but that hasn't been captured in the seasonal adjustment algo, that would make seasonally adjusted claims look higher than they are. And we know what the SA factors are! 8/n
1 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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The chart below attempts to show why this lag in SA might be creating some issues (description in alt text). As shown, 2022-2024 see a much steeper ramp in NSA continuing claims than was the norm pre-COVID. '21 (included in chart) and '20 (excluded) were very unusual due to COVID so ignore them 7/n
1 replies 0 reposts 7 likes