Phil Edwards's avatar

Phil Edwards

@philedwards.bsky.social

Agree, but I think it'll only be worth 4-5% to the Tories (and not, as I'd previously thought, 8-10%). Apart from anything else, postal voting has gone mad over the last couple of elections...

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Phil Edwards's avatar Phil Edwards @philedwards.bsky.social
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I remember thinking - begging your pardon as a Liberal - that we'd brought a few people back to Labour during the last couple of weeks of the 2019 campaign, then looking back and reinterpreting that sympathetic-but-regretful expression: *they'd already voted*.

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Nick Barlow's avatar Nick Barlow @nickbwalking.bsky.social
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I'm thinking about 2-3%, possibly in those seats where the Tories need it most and are campaigning hardest because then there's a push and pull factor at work there. But it's interesting that Reform surged when Farage jumped in, but if anything have slipped back since then not kept growing.

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