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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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🤷♂️
twitter.com/patrickkmagu...
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Philip Nye@philipnye.bsky.social |
137 followers 44 following 120 posts
Data scientist @instituteforgov.bsky.social • Words and numbers on elections, reshuffles, edu policy, govt transparency • Bilingual: 🐍/SQL • Sign up to the IfG newsletter: bit.ly/3xDINTz
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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🤷♂️
twitter.com/patrickkmagu...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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We don't believe so. The No 10 Twitter account has tweeted others, such as Dodds, who will attend cabinet
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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The news that Anneliese Dodds will be attending cabinet confirmed two days after her first cabinet meeting 🤨
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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We now think this is Starmer's cabinet, finalised:
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/ge...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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It's surprising how commonly we've had siblings serving together in recent governments - something I've dug into for the live blog:
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/ge...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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I've not - we're going to keep that strictly to cabinet appointments We might do some more graphics of full ministerial teams later today/tomorrow if we get more appointments
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Good morning Bluesky. We've started up the IfG's government formation live blog for the day
Some thoughts from me here on the challenges Bridget Phillipson and Jacqui Smith face at the DfE: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/ge...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Today has been very quiet on the appointments front - it's unclear whether there'll be any at all For now, we're wrapping up the live blog for the day, so that we can all go and watch England, in what's certain to a confident, enjoyable performance 😬
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Note: We're not yet counting Emily Thornberry and Nick Thomas-Symonds as having lost their slots in the cabinet, pending confirmation that Starmer has finished appointing his cabinet, though that currently seems to be the case
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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We've kicked off the live blog again and will be bringing updates through the day. To start with, this is the Keir Starmer's cabinet, after further appointments yesterday evening:
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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With that we're wrapping things up for today, but you can catch up on all of today's happenings on the live blog
And we'll be back with analysis of the junior appointments, and the challenges facing new ministers, tomorrow: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/ge...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Two new appointments: Lucy Powell has now been appointed as leader of the Commons and Angela Smith as leader of the Lords
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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After quite a gap in proceedings, we think we're close to having a full cabinet: - Lisa Nandy becomes DCMS SoS (prev: shadow DfID) - Steve Reed at Defra - Hilary Benn at NIO - Ian Murray at the Scotland Office - Jo Stevens at the Wales Office
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Cabinet appointments have been coming through very quickly This is where we're up to currently - with everyone confirmed in post so far
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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We'll be tracking Keir Starmer's cabinet appointments throughout the afternoon on the IfG's government formation live blog
This is the starting position, after Jon Ashworth and Thangam Debbonaire lost their seats
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/ge...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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As we wait for Starmer to start making appointments... By my count there’ve been 516 people who were Conservative MPs between 2010 and 2024 – and 60% of them (308) served as a minister at some point That compares to 43% of party MPs serving as ministers for both the 1979-1997 and 1997-2010 periods
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Great stat from @finnbaker.bsky.social and @aliceolilly.bsky.social: over half of the Commons will be newly-elected
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Throughout the day and over the weekend we're live blogging the formation of Keir Starmer's government
Follow along here for details of when key events are likely to happen, what key decisions Starmer will need to make - and (lots of) charts:
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/ge...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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We’ll have to see if there’s anything we can do about pre-2010 appointments, but that tends to get less usage than the more recent stuff
This is all part of our plan to make the database into a public resource - so I'll be tweeting more about it soon ✨
bsky.app/profile/phil...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Accepted matches were then fed back to our database, with a bit of manual handling of awkward cases (thank you @finnbaker.bsky.social!)
The end result? We’ve gone from around 530 appts post-May 2010 with generic titles to just 180 (many of which will have been the proper title)
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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I needed a way to match the GOV.UK data to our database and decide which cases we wanted to replace post names for
Step in @streamlit.bsky.social. Using Streamlit it was really easy to make a simple UI to review possible matches
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Helpfully, GOV.UK has got a great API (content-api.publishing.service.gov.uk) so the first step was to download its data on appointments
It has details of all ministerial appointments post-2012, and most post-2010 (including a few curiosities)
twitter.com/philipnye/st...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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At IfG we have a database of ministerial appointments going back to 1979 which (whoever wins) will be getting an airing on Fri One issue – lots of appts we hold under generic titles (‘Minister of State’, not ‘Minister of State for Schools’) A micro-thread on fixing this 🧵
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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We've added Sam Tarry 🔴 to our list of MPs standing down, based on public statements he's made Where does that leave us, with nominations closing at 4pm today? - 132 (ex-)MPs standing down overall - 75 CON - 34 LAB - 9 IND - 9 SNP - 3 SF - 1 GRN - 1 PC
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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That should in fact have been three updates: 🔵 Douglas Ross is standing for the seat David Duguid was expected to run for, so will not be standing down from Westminster at the election as previously declared
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Two updates: 🔵 David Duguid has (somewhat controversially) not been re-selected for his seat, so we believe he won’t be a candidate at the election 🔵 Andy Carter has reversed his decision of 12 months ago not to run for re-election in Warrington South
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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As a reminder, nominations close on Friday, so it's only after that point where we'll have the full picture of who isn't standing Worth saying too - for brevity, 'MPs' = 'people who were MPs at dissolution'
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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We’re now in a position where the number of MPs known to be standing down at the election is going down slightly
We’ve removed two Tory MPs (Chris Clarkson, Kieran Mullan) who'd said they were standing down but've now been selected for new seats
Credit to @finnbaker.bsky.social for spotting
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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As a reminder, we have an explainer being kept live by @finnbaker.bsky.social, with lots more detail on:
- The number of MPs we normally see standing down
- How long those standing down spent in the Commons
- The seats they represented
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/mp...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Latest updates: - Added Aaron Bell (CON) - Removed Julian Knight (IND, formerly CON) who will stand as an independent - Removed Stuart Andrew (CON) who has been selected as a candidate for Daventry
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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With candidates having to submit their nomination papers by 4pm on Friday, more than a fifth of MPs at parliament’s dissolution are known not to be standing Latest: - 134 standing down in total - 78 CON - 33 LAB - 9 IND - 9 SNP - 3 SF - 1 GRN - 1 PC
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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We've added Mark Logan, who was the Conservative MP for Bolton North East until Parliament's dissolution, to our list of MPs standing down at the election This takes us to 135 MPs known to be standing down
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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We've added three Lloyd Russell-Moyle, Beth Winter and Mick Whitley to our list of MPs standing down - we think that they are not contesting the election, based on their public statements and news reports We are getting to a point where these things are less clear-cut though
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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We've added Geraint Davies (IND, formerly LAB) and Steve McCabe (LAB) to our list of MPs known to be standing down at the election, taking us to 131 MPs overall We'll do further updates through the day as and when additional names come through
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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For details of how this compares to other recent elections and much more, see our explainer here: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/mp...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Update with @finnbaker.bsky.social
One more Labour MP - Lyn Brown - and one more independent MP (formerly Plaid Cymru) - Jonathan Edwards - have announced they won't be contesting the election
That take to 129 the total number known not to be standing
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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*As one or two people have spotted, the timestamp in the most recent version of the graphic above should have been 09:30, 28 May 2024
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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By party elected as: - CON: 83 - LAB: 28 - SNP: 10 - SF: 3 - DUP: 1 - GRN: 1 - PC: 1
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Here's where we stand this morning: Six Labour MPs have announced they won't be standing in the past 24hrs Lucy Allan has left the Conservatives and is now an independent Meaning 127 MPs overall are standing down: - CON: 77 - LAB: 28 - SNP: 9 - IND: 8 - SF: 3 - GRN: 1 - PC: 1
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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(FYI: I may do one or two updates but don't plan on live updating this thread over the weekend)
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Two big Conservative names - Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove - have announced this evening that they're standing down at the election This takes to 121 the total number of MPs who've confirmed they won't be standing, 78 of them Conservative
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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With close to a fifth of all MPs standing down, my colleague @rebeccamckee.bsky.social has some interesting reflections here on what happens to the 3,500 staff working in the offices of those standing down: twitter.com/RMCMcKee/sta...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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A further MP has added his name to the list - David Evennett, Conservative MP for Bexleyheath and Crayford - the 76th MP currently sitting as a Conservative and the 119th overall
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Two more Conservative MPs have announced that they won't be contesting the election: Greg Clark and Craig Mackinlay Taking us to 118 MPs (18%) overall
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Based on party originally elected as this would be: - 77 CON - 24 LAB - 9 SNP - 3 SF - 1 DUP - 1 GRN - 1 PC
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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🗳️ This is where we start the day after news that Michael Ellis and John Redwood aren't standing and that Matt Hancock and Bob Stewart have got the Conservative whip back - 116 MPs overall who've announced they won't stand - 73 CON - 22 LAB - 9 SNP - 7 IND - 3 SF - 1 GRN - 1 PC
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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If you're catching up on the day's news, we've gone from 108 MPs known to be standing down to 114 as of now
For more detail on all of this, see our great explainer, being kept up to date by @finnbaker.bsky.social: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/mp...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Kevan Jones, Labour MP for North Durham, has announced that he won't be contesting the election
He's the 22nd serving Labour MP to announce they won't be standing, and the 114th overall
twitter.com/KevanJonesMP...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Huw Merriman - junior minister with responsibility for HS2 and rail - has announced he won't be standing at the forthcoming election
That takes to 113 the total number of MPs who've said they won't contest the election, 69 of them Conservative
twitter.com/HuwMerriman/...
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Philip Nye
@philipnye.bsky.social
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Thank you. There are details in the footnotes, but I agree it would be useful - will see what we can do :)
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