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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Biden had one cogent hour in the past week! Yippee!
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️@realitycheck.bsky.social |
96 followers 328 following 461 posts
Colorado dad, snowboarder, runner, house and car repairer Reality check: We all need one now and then
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Biden had one cogent hour in the past week! Yippee!
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Welp, I got to watch Biden's meltdown live, but can't see his hypothetical recovery.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Thanks for sharing those links. Pretty incendiary exposé here, but only one person's account. A summary is blowing up with 1700+ comments.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Yes. Not convinced Harris shouldn't be at the top of the ticket. But with or without Biden, I'm absolutely voting for Harris.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Good contrast between the parties. He uses the phrase "politics of dominance" but just as easily say "bullying". Not exactly synonymous, but on his criteria a bully like Trump stands a much better chance of being perceived as a high-dominance leader. Meek, mild, tired Biden is the polar opposite.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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"I tried to make eye contact, but it was like his eyes, though open, were not on. His face had a waxy quality. He smiled.... I said 'hello.' His sweet smile stayed frozen. He spoke very slowly and in a very soft voice. 'And what’s your name?' he asked.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Sarah Longwell, Republican strategist: “The G.O.P. is a personality cult that turned itself over to Donald Trump.... The Democrats are still a mostly functional political party ... who believe that the stakes for beating Trump are existential and therefore worth a serious discussion.”
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Sure. A Harris (or other) candidacy can't be dismissed due to election laws. That's very important. But obviously not sufficient to dump Biden.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Happy Independence Day to all from Donald Trump and Matt Gaetz.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Yes. Demonstrating basic mental competence (and that the debate was therefore an aberration) should be a cakewalk. That it hasn't happened yet is alarming. He's alert and engaged from 10 to 4... He needs more sleep... Should travel less... These are not reassuring that he's capable of continuing.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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It's all speculation. It's just like a debate between football talking heads about whether the aging, somewhat injured veteran should get the start or the promising but unproven rookie. They can go for hours and hours on that stuff.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Thanks for this. So much FUD about "Biden can't be replaced in Wisconsin," etc. Nice simple rebuttal here: "No state requires a qualified party to certify its nominees for national office earlier than August 21."
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Seen on a 12-year-old at the local small town parade.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Roberts justifying presidential immunity: “unlike anyone else, the president is a branch of government.” What are governors then? Putting anyone is above the law is terrifying. But putting one and only one person above the law is baffling.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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I hear you. It's also death to the ticket if Biden stays. There goes the "president must be mentally competent" vote. I lean toward Harris as the best option. But no good choices here.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Betting markets now assign a higher probability to a Kamala Harris win in November than a Biden win. Both less than a 15% chance though.
www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds...
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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"Senate Republicans last won more votes or represented more Americans than Democrats in 1998, but the GOP has controlled the upper chamber nearly half the time since then."
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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No one is safe.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Team Trump wants Biden to stay in. The NYT is absolutely taking sides, *against* Team Trump.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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I thought Obama was a high assassination risk too, but that didn't come to pass. In any case, I like the messaging around Biden serving out his term ("doing the job you elected me to do") and endorsing Harris.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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And why only the president and his minions? Governors, members of Congress, even your local city council all take actions that may be controversial and therefore must have total immunity to be able to function.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Yes. All nine of them voted to gut the 14th amendment in the Colorado ballot case, though, so this is nothing new.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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"If the president is a king, then we are subjects, whose lives and livelihoods are only safe insofar as we don’t incur the wrath of the executive. And if we find ourselves outside the light of his favor, then we ... find ourselves, in effect, outside the protection of the law."
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Michelle Obama: When they go low, we go high. For example: We liberals would never hold up confirmation of a Supreme Court justice for a year. Look where that got us.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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We need to return to the rule of law. Before we can do that, we need to get through the current crisis. Trump cannot be the next president, or all is lost, including the independent DOJ. Seal Team Six is starting to sound pretty good.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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So that's it, right? End of USA, race to get foreign citizenship?
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Breaking: Biden has six more good hours per day than Trump.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Really?! I thought it was because NYT was taken over by fascists. I think I heard that on Bluesky.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Well said. He accomplished his lifelong dream. He saved the US in 2020. Now it's time to look to his legacy.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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I don't know. The case for Biden is increasingly becoming no more than "He's not the felon, autocrat, insurrectionist, rapist," etc. Any replacement candidate would have that going for them and possibly more.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Yes, absolutely. A vote for four more years of Biden could very well really turn out to be a year of Biden and three of Harris. Voters need to have confidence in Harris.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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The 40-32 on truth telling is a disaster for Biden. It shows that voters don't know truth from lies anymore. Biden's honesty and integrity are key advantages versus Trump, but only if voters are capable of recognizing them.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Yes. The few undecided voters in a few swing states are what matters (along with turnout among the faithful). I think Biden's apparent cognitive decline will be more of an issue for those undecided voters than Trump's lying. But that's just my guess. Polling data needed.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Nate Silver unveiled his analytical model for 2024, estimating Trump's chance of winning at 66%. And that was *before* the debate.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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All over bsky: "NYT has gone MAGA, urging Biden to step aside but not Trump, the felon, rapist, insurrectionist..." Trump is winning the polls, prediction markets, and analytical models. He's not stepping aside. Obviously. The actionable question is: How best to beat Trump? Biden or not Biden?
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Not a mystery. They believe other options stand a better chance than Biden. A reasonable point of view. Perilous, but so is the alternative.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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It's a decent bet that a warm body like Harris, Whitmer, or Newsom would stand an even better chance than a corpse. But like the OP said so well, the choice is far from obvious.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Why would Trump step down? He's leading the polls, the prediction markets, and the analytical models. In urging Biden to step aside, the NYT also said in a Biden-Trump race they'd obviously endorse Biden. But Trump's not stepping down. How on earth would that make sense?
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Well said. There's no obvious answer here. It's a perilous time for the US. Biden staying in and being replaced are both perilous.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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We're talking strategy here, of course. So obviously, no. The felon is leading in the polls, prediction markets, and analytical models. Why on earth would the serial liar step down? Biden on the other hand could strategically step down to save us from the insurrectionist.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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"The New York Times has become the first US newspaper to call on Biden to drop out of the race, but other influential publications including the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times and the Atlantic have published op-eds by their leading columnists calling on Biden to step aside."
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Bouie seems the most thoughtful and nuanced for sure. This simple argument from Stephens is also compelling: "Americans will not re-elect an unpopular president, with an unpopular vice president, who is so visibly frail. They know ... that senility is a one-way ticket." Uncharted waters here.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Obviously no, because that was politically motivated lawfare. Trump is as innocent as a newborn babe.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Wow, this is a completely different Joe Biden! Thanks for rescuing me from the depths of despair. There's still hope!
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Betting markets now give Biden just a 19% chance of winning the election. Trump 55%, Newsom 11%, Harris 5%, Michelle Obama 4%. Whitmer, Kennedy, Hillary Clinton all at 2%.
www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds...
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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"If you want to know which President Joe Biden showed up to his debate with former President Donald Trump last night, here’s a clue: Removing lead pipes made it into the Democrat’s closing arguments. Restoring access to abortion and preserving American democracy did not." That says it all.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Rich investors love what they saw last night!
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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They said beforehand they weren't going to do real-time fact checking. Trump teed up one softball after another for Biden to call out his lies. And Biden swung and missed repeatedly. Roe v. Wade authorized murdering babies?! WTF? And Biden couldn't even respond effectively to that craziness.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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Day old bread, obviously. But diarrhea is leading the polls, the prediction markets, and the analytical models. So I guess the choice isn't as obvious for a lot of people as it is for you and me.
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reality check 🤔🤷♂️
@realitycheck.bsky.social
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But the vibes, my friend. No, we're not good.
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