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Ryan Humphrey@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social |
19 followers 36 following 530 posts
Politics, video & Geekery
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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If it’s not based on anything real, he should have had no problem doing a bunch of live media If the press reports he’s broken his leg, you don’t hide him for a week while denying it. You set up a podium in front of the white house and have him walk out to take questions
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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The fact that they didn’t rush to do three interviews like this, and then a round of the evening talk shows, was the nail in the coffin. Mental competency is easy to publicly demonstrate, unless you can’t
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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The obvious Biden response to the debate disaster was to have done ten live interviews in five days. It should have been a non-issue to put to bed. The fact that it wasn’t, means it’s not a non-issue
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Yeah, but they really value the racist vote.
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Which most people won’t realize because they’ll just assume it’s Farage based on the airtime he gets in the news
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Now *there* is a historical irony. A new Labour government having to investigate the Russian collaborators of their opposition would have been the plot to a parody not long ago
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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If nothing else, I’d expect them to recruit heavily, and next election they’ll run credible candidates in almost every seat.
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Although they do happen to have the most seats there too I’m mostly amused that SF almost got as many seats as the SNP. A couple years ago that would have been an insane statement for a few reasons
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Congress would have to form a mini congress and elect their own representatives
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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haven’t seen many polls with them much higher. Even the most optimistic topped out around 70. Variations where they came in second had the Cons a lot lower. And I suspect a lot of these seats are in the margin of error. Might be a bit of movement yet
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Every pollster who now has to see how their numbers hold up
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Yes, baseline requirements for being part of society. Like taxes, and for similar reasons. Even if you don’t like them, it’s the minimum requirement for our collective organization.
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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I always thought she was a bit of a pushover
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Ah, but that would be impolite. High road
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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I wonder how much the memory of Feinstein is hurting Biden right now? After watching her be obviously incapacitated while the party claimed she was fine, is it surprising that the same claims about Biden are falling flat? Regardless of how true they are or aren’t? This is what they’d say regardless
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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I wonder how much the memory of Feinstein is hurting Biden right now? After watching her be obviously incapacitated while the party claimed she was fine, is it surprising that the same claims about Biden are falling flat? Regardless of how true they are or aren’t?
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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France isn’t any variety of PR. And several of the rest are famously dysfunctional. No one has ever said “FPTP is terrible, I wish our government was more like Italy’s” PR solves some problems, but almost none of them are the things people complain about under FPTP
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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FPTP has real problems, but I’ve never been sold on PR. The places that have it are rarely a good advertisement. In reality it seems to promote factionalism and instability rather than responsiveness Ranked choice or variants on MMPR seem to solve more of the problems that PR claims to address
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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If he does step aside, it will be interesting to see if Harris can consolidate the party. I get the impression she has a high profile but low personal support A year ago when it wasn’t clear Biden would run, I saw few people excited that Harris might get a shot, and more that she seemed inevitable
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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I’d have to go with James Cameron. Lucas is important in the history of special effects, but Cameron is the one who pioneered 90% of what modern cinema is built on. And not just the flashy CG. The first wire-removal shot was in T2 And a shoutout to Zemeckis with the first digital color grading
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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This isn’t a criticism of you specifically, but I don’t think people disseminating polls do a good enough job emphasizing margin of error and its effects These polls could be 100% accurate, and still encompass results where parties either double or half their projected seat count.
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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They were only supposed to shatter the social contract in ways their friends could profit from
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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The conclusion? Boo. We demand the other 23 letters!
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Surprise!
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Looks like they might be Scotch Bonnet peppers? Those often show up in pepper mixes. They’re delicious and make for pretty plants, but are pretty high on the scoville scale. Very good for sauces and pepper oil and chillis.
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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I have some sympathy for people who legitimately think that if both Biden and Harris are guaranteed losses, there’s no downside to exploring a long shot candidate
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Who has the money to prove it?
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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No, doesn’t count The debate was so devastating to him because it was an uncontrolled environment. He can’t dig his way out with scripted or managed events put on by his campaign. One, no one watches them, and two, no one believes they are authentic
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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It’s both about time and far too late for these questions to be asked I’d vote for a brick instead of Trump, but I’d also have significant critical questions about how the brick made it that far through the process
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Yes. If this really was a blip, he needs to be live in front of audiences every week, starting tomorrow Do talk shows. Open for SNL. Guest host something on daytime TV. Whatever gets him live and alert in unscripted public situations
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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It’s become clear that if enough of Sunak’s party had known to prepare for the election, enough of the party would have known to be able to prevent it. By strangling him with his own tie if necessary
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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An imperial SCOTUS that the other branches of government could nix any time they wanted. Except that the other branches seem mostly happy to be relieved of the burden of functionality
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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His retcon to having been struggling with schizophrenia/DID most of his life is something that made more sense than it should have
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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What’s with his naked mole rat teeth?
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Yeah, but that’s been every debate in living memory. Name one national debate in the last thirty years where everyone came away saying the moderating was great and it really forced the candidates to clarify their positions Who was expecting anything but what we got?
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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If this stands, it’s the end of the modern administrative state in America
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Fish is more of a shape than a species.
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Does that make a corn field an orchard?
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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You should publish all these in a fancy atlas style
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Awww. I can’t be the only one who was curious what you’d come up with for the other 23 letters of the alphabet
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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It’s interesting because the polls have almost no movement, but within the margin of error history will be made. +-3 points would be the making of some parties and the breaking of others I do not envy the pollsters. They can be 100% accurate without it delivering any meaningful predictive ability
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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But that’s all history My favorite quote on the fall of the Roman Empire goes something like: It was caused by barbarian invasions, climate change, crop collapse, lead poisoning, civil wars, corrupt bureaucracy, shifting trade, and over-expansion… but of course it was more complicated than that
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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After the last decade, I’m willing to risk some boredom
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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I’ll believe that these algorithms will find useful places in fields like chemical engineering and medical diagnosis. Pattern matching tools have always been in demand But we don’t need to tolerate the copyright-stealing-bullshit generating variations to enable that. They are not mutually dependent
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Maybe “good future” outcomes are less interesting story telling engines, but we should still strive for them
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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No, Stable Diffusion can, and often is, downloaded and run locally. The code has been publicly released, and there’s a large open source community developing different models It’s why I’m curious about the methodology to generate the power usage, and why they didn’t benchmark a cloud based service
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Well, since you offered to provide the links I thought I’d start there. Why offer the links if you. Weren’t interested in people asking for them?
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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On the other hand, the default media framing is going to present the “center” as somewhere between the Gov and the opposition A Lib Dem opposition moves the Overton window, and it might enable them to accomplish a lot more of their agenda Also delegitimizes the Cons, hurting their rebuild
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Ryan Humphrey
@ryanhumphrey.bsky.social
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Direct link please, as I’m curious on the methodology. I played a bit with stable diffusion when it was new. Prompts took a few seconds to resolve on my desktop. I wasn’t running a voltmeter on it, but there’s no way the energy usage matches up with this
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