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Shamubeel Eaqub@seaqub.bsky.social |
1303 followers 1087 following 47 posts
Economist, based in NZ. Co-author of “Generation Rent”, author of “Growing Apart” aka “zombie town”. Musings on NZ economy.
More about me at
www.eaqub.com/
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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How much of the ‘Covid hangover’ is hiding longer term fraying of the social fabric? Put forward some of my emerging thoughts on this on The Detail at RNZ. www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/t...
0 replies 7 reposts 23 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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A summary of the macro trends in budget 24 on the dark lands of linked in:
www.linkedin.com/posts/eaqub_...
0 replies 1 reposts 6 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Budget 24 has lived up to a dispiriting tradition of short-termism. Our spending is too lavish relative to our taxes. We are too timid on our long-term challenges. We make decisions in Budgets that are convenient for today, but stores up problems for future generations
amp.rnz.co.nz/article/fbe8...
2 replies 17 reposts 69 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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And most of this decline in GDP per capita is because business profits have slumped. Worker compensation has gone sideways.
0 replies 3 reposts 7 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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GDP data for Dec-23 confirmed what we knew for over a year - NZ is in recession. The economy is about making more people better off. We're doing the more people bit, not the better off bit. GDP per capita has been falling since a peak in Sep-22.
2 replies 6 reposts 11 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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The NZ shifts are broadly in line with global agriculture price trends. Which have eased from peak at start of Russia-Ukraine war, but remain much higher than pre-pandemic times. Suggests food prices won't get much cheaper, but should not rise too much in the next year. (3/3)
0 replies 3 reposts 3 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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The rate of food price inflation is moderating. The levels vs inflation rate is quite telling here. Sometimes annual inflation rates don't tell the full story. (2/3)
2 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Oct-23 Food Price Index from @Stats_NZ shows prices have been going sideways since mid-year. But not really getting cheaper. (1/3)
1 replies 4 reposts 5 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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NZ house building surge is over? Planning rules, infrastructure and low interest rates (not necessarily in that order) really helped during the covid years. Rising immigration/population growth and slowing supply will increase housing costs and housing insecurity.
2 replies 9 reposts 23 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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But prices are down from 2 years ago. So there’s no gains to pay tax on. www.qv.co.nz/price-index/
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Oh I agree. I guess as a user of said statistical measures, I don’t even look at confidence. Trading activity - basically sales - is a decent proxy for gdp growth.
1 replies 2 reposts 8 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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The headline ‘confidence’ statistic is basically vibes and of no use at all. But the ‘own trading activity’ measure tends to be ok tracking the economy.
1 replies 1 reposts 9 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Cute. Mine look related when they wear matching clothes 😂
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Yes. Have two. One looks like a mini me and the other looks like a mini wife. I am just not that online…too old…
1 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Thanks david. Have added my contribution. Happy to be contacted by stats nz should they need.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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I’d be happy to be part of this.
2 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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I wonder if that assessment still stands. Recent weather events suggest they may be less predictable based on historical observations. Would be interested in any recommended reading.
4 replies 1 reposts 11 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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It’s all household insurance. House, contents, car, health and life.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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@christinahood.bsky.social on closer look, I am surprised NZ insurance premiums haven't increased as much as countries like Australia and UK. Over last 20 years average insurance premiums have increased by an additional 40% in Australia & 60% in UK! More to dig into...
4 replies 3 reposts 17 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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informal chats suggest it is both global repricing and additional nz premium. But I couldn’t show you with real data or the split. Will be v interested if it is available.
1 replies 1 reposts 6 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Grim. It’s only just beginning.
2 replies 1 reposts 12 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Surge in insurance price really quite worrying. Flooding & cyclone have really increased prices. Expect more insurance price increases, insurance retreat, more exclusions, and falling coverage. Policy response still ad hoc and obsessed with making owners whole - unsustainable 3/3
6 replies 14 reposts 40 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Signs that both the supply crunch and demand increase overlap of last year has eased. Positive signs for RBNZ to pause. But rising rents show slowing housing supply & rising migration will hurt some people too. Very much a mixed bag. 2/3
1 replies 4 reposts 21 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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On TV1 Breakfast this morning talked about sep-23 inflation. Which has moderated in line with global trends. 1/3
5 replies 15 reposts 45 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Sep-23 rents show rents are local. eg Auckland rents become (relatively) more affordable when population declined (during border closure). Rents are driven by ability to pay and relative shortage not costs. www.treasury.govt.nz/publications...
0 replies 1 reposts 3 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Food price inflation is still very high (up 8% over the past year) but moderating in line with broader global agriculture commodity price trends from nearly a year ago. Some local effects too with cyclones and weather increasing fresh fruit and veg prices. Lags in the economy are very long.
0 replies 3 reposts 12 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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I hosted a conversation with Helen Robinsons (Auckland City Mission) and Sasha Lockley (Money Sweetspot) on poverty, economy etc. Two incredible women with some hard truths. youtu.be/pPVec8Ga84s?...
0 replies 7 reposts 14 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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NZers collective short termism is firmly on display in the latest Ipsos monitor. Always a good pulse check: www.ipsos.com/en-nz/22nd-i...
1 replies 4 reposts 17 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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We won’t agree on this. A payroll tax is different from an income tax - so it makes no sense at all to compare it with income tax rates. Total tax figure above incudes all levels of govt and all taxes.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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I don’t know why you would add a payroll tax when comparing income tax rates. The income on offer is after that tax. Could compare total taxes. In oz that’s around 29.6% of gdp and NZ 30.0% (central and local govt).
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Yeah. Since ppp exchange rate is 1.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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In prep for an interview, Australia has a more progressive income tax regime than NZ. It has a 0% tax rate threshold for the first $18.2k and the top tax rate of 45% kicks in at $180k.
4 replies 43 reposts 94 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Impressed at how well set up Kirikiriroa-Hamilton is for playgrounds. My kids loving the variety and quality. Highlights for them. Food’s been smashing too so far: Gothenburg, Edo and madam woo (the fish special was so great). Jet boating on Waikato river was a lot of fun!
1 replies 0 reposts 20 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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It’s a fabulous series. The diet bit also super interesting- local and balanced diet and portion size. Purpose filled lives too. All these aspects seem unmoored in modern life.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Punching down is such an ingrained part of NZ politics. It’s sad. I wish people would read Matthew Desmond’s poverty by America. www.amazon.com.au/gp/aw/d/B0B6...
2 replies 8 reposts 34 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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I mean prices are still crazy and there much more work to be done. But I am trying to see silver linings…
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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But also yes many things have changed for the better. Rental rules have improved a touch, there’s some BTR coming through, land/housing supply is improving. There’s attempt to do infra and LG better. Enough? No. Improving? Absolutely.
1 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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I remember coz it came out the day my first boy was born. It makes me feel…mature 🤣
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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No surprise that stability of housing - a human right - improves quality of life. Something that motivated Generation Rent and call for more tenure security among a suite of policies (8+ yrs ago). www.bwb.co.nz/books/genera...
2 replies 13 reposts 46 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Absolutely. Definitely slack in residential construction - also seeing some pricing coming off and people pitching for work. Gdp per capita is the total of the whole economy - so it doesn’t show these variations
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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GDP data today shows no technical recession. But flat GDP per capita for a year is why its feels so grumpy. Looks much like what is happening across the Tasman.
3 replies 16 reposts 47 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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In report for Netsafe found cyber bullying harm of $1b, online fraud perhaps as high as $470m. Worryingly more people are experiencing harm online. More in the report on Netsafe site and herald story($) www.nzherald.co.nz/business/net...
1 replies 3 reposts 5 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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So many focus grouped empty words…
0 replies 0 reposts 10 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Oops. This place is all new for me.
1 replies 0 reposts 11 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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@stuff.bsky.social column on: If you expect relief from the cost of living crisis this general election: tough luck. If you are frustrated by our politicians’ short-termism: hold up a mirror. They are reflecting what we ask for. Ask for better things.
www.thepost.co.nz/a/nz-news/35...
6 replies 13 reposts 48 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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Suspect more important to focus on breaking up vertical integration. They own too much of the chain.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Shamubeel Eaqub
@seaqub.bsky.social
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NZ voters want relief from cost of living crisis but policies that work are long term and not sexy.
www.theguardian.com/world/2023/s...
3 replies 12 reposts 54 likes