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Sid Eschenbach@sid-eschenbach.bsky.social |
1/2 I think it's entirely rational to believe Biden lost votes after the debate, and from there it's rational to ask a) how many might that be, and where; b) can he win them back, and c) could it cost him the election if he can't. Unfortunately, there's no hard data on any of that other than polls
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Sid Eschenbach
@sid-eschenbach.bsky.social
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It's also not irrational to believe that Trumpworld would much rather face Biden than a new, strong, young team that can actually deal with his firehose of lies when that happens. Roe is the key, so Whitmer or Harris must be aboard. Harris scares me as top of ticket. I love her, but is US ready? no.
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Sid Eschenbach
@sid-eschenbach.bsky.social
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2/2 which are iffy, so difficult to answer. The replace questions are a) can they keep/not lose bidens core voters; b) can they win back some of those he lost. Answers there are IMO yes to both, no reason to believe otherwise. So if there's time, it's not irrational at all... but it's Joe's call
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Ghost Bear ☮
@ghostbear077.bsky.social
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Polls are not hard data either. Professional polling companies want us to believe that of course, as does MSM. But as we have seen, they have a significantly larger error ratio than margins allow for, and the variations between individual polls is even greater.
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