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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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The train coming into Oxford Street, Manchester #Photography #10MinutesFromHome
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Iain Roberts@slowbikeiain.bsky.social |
286 followers 344 following 902 posts
Fan of liveable cities, everyday cycling, The Archers and politics. Lib Dem, ex Stockport cllr. Trying to improve my photography skills. He/him. LGBTQIA+ ally.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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The train coming into Oxford Street, Manchester #Photography #10MinutesFromHome
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Why were they making a film about a programming language in the first place?
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Thank you đ
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Mancunian Way, Manchester #Photography #BlackAndWhite #10MinutesFromHome
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Denise: "my husband's caring, understanding and loves me, and Alistair's as dull as ditchwater. But there's just something about a man who can fist a cow that's a real turn-on." #TheArchers
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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I hadn't realised John was still touring - last saw him at Warwick Arts Centre in 1996!
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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It's reputed to have a wide range of medicinal benefits, so I'm guessing some herbal product based on the pansy. The advert's not making much more sense though.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Will Mr Denise take inspiration from Etienne and suggest an open relationship or throuple when Denise breaks the news that she prefers her men to have experience of sticking parts of their body inside farm animals. #TheArchers
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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More Brexit benefits
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Isn't there a belief about the Jews in Israel fulfilling some prophecy that's required for the second coming, rapture, etc. and a view that Trump is the person who'll make that happen.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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#AlphabetChallenge #WeekBForBlue #Photography HOME, Manchester
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Manchester skyline #Photography #BlackAndWhite #10MinutesFromHome #Urbanism
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Isn't it Keith?
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Shocking advert - just look at the apostrophe for a plural.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Four days into the Labour government and the lampposts are already taking their own lives rather than stay in Starmer's socialist Britain. The Telegraph will have an op-ed up about this shortly.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Fourth day in a row I've come downstairs to find no bundles of leaflets left in the porch for me to deliver. Feeling a little bereft and unloved đ˘
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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This shot's taken from the roof of the car park.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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I'm a big fan of Jen's paintings since I saw a couple exhibited in Manchester - fell in love with them right away.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Wimbledon in Manchester #Photography #10MinutesFromHome
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Labour should quickly and unceremoniously scrap Voter ID.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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My parents didn't really smoke, but I did manage a wonky bird table that may have contributed to the untimely deaths of one or more of our avian friends.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Rather out of fashion in Britain - we no longer drop our aitches as the Victorians did, so "an 'otel" and "an 'ospital" is more commonly "a hotel" and "a hospital" these days. You can just about still get away with "an historic" - it seems to be the usage hanging on the longest.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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I have a lot sympathy for the Palestinian cause, so it's a real shame that - in the UK at least - it seems to attract such horrible people. The campaigns fought by Workers Party and Independent (Gaza) candidates are... not nice.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Outrageous that they followed the French electoral rules to ensure that the candidate hated by the most people wasn't elected.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Every one of them a bargain for eight quid.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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They don't need to make crop circles since they assumed the forms of our Royal family. Or was that the lizard people - it's so complicated.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Agreed, though that's more true of majoritarian systems than STV. If you are electing multiple MPs in each constituency, you should end up with people who are the first choice of a good chunk of voters.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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But the larger the constituency, the weaker the link. (The extreme is Israel where the whole country is one constituency). That's another reason I like STV - if you have 3-6-member constituencies, most people have an MP they support and you retain a (slightly weaker) constituency link. (2/2)
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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The trade-off is against constituency size. If each constituency elects one person, you're often going to have the elected person not being the first preference of most voters. As constituencies get larger, more and more voters get at least one person who's their first preference. (1/2)
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Personally, I'd support STV over the French majoritarian system but I wouldn't die in a ditch over it.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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The two-round voting helps avoid the situation where the candidate who's elected is the one the most people want to lose (common under FPTP). Ensuring third candidates dropped out helped that happen in France. Wouldn't make any difference to the EU referendum - Leave got over 50% in the first round
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Sean Jones
@seanjones.org
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Listening to James Timpson's interview, it is clear that he would like to see a sea-change in sentencing policy. That will not be his remit, but if the new PM supports such a change, I think it would have very significant ramifications for our political culture. Let me explain. /1
3 replies 31 reposts 54 likes
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Now corrected. I suspect it was a local journo getting carried away by Looe and coup rhyming rather than anything more sinister.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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I don't think that's quite true. While few people actually got to put a cross by Starmer or Sunak's names on a ballot paper, we all know our vote is for a party leader to be PM. I don't think we can pretend that local voters are just voting to elect their MP.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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So he's observant and honest.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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If Biden steps down as President during his term of office, Harris would take over. If he chooses not to stand again, it would be up to the party to figure out who replaces him as candidate, but it wouldn't have to be Harris.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Pressure behind the scenes is growing on Biden to step down. In public everyone will be supportive, until at some point - quite soon - he announces his change of heart.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Thatâs going to be hard work, and itâs going to upset some people along the way, but it has to be done. If the Lib Dems can do it, they have a real chance of securing 100+ MPs and, who knows, maybe leading a government before too long. /END
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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The Lib Dems need to build an internal coalition capable of appealing to 25%+ of voters, with a solid support base, lots of donors and constituency machines across the country capable of holding off the Tories and taking on Labour.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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But people much cleverer than me can come up with ways to make the Lib Dems more newsworthy over the next few years. And thereâs a warning: The smaller a party is, the narrower it can afford to be. Bigger parties have to be broader parties. The Lib Dems will need to become a broad church.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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But people much cleverer than me can come up with ways to make the Lib Dems more newsworthy over the next few years.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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And, if this campaign has shown anything, itâs that the Lib Dems are learning how to get media attention. I donât think Davey should necessarily paddle-board in the Thames before PMQs every week (thoughâŚ.)
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Not just with the guerrilla tactics needed for a small band of MPs who canât cover everything, but right across the board with a proper shadow ministerial setup.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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But thereâs good news: As the Tories and Reform play the âIâm more right-wing than youâ game, the Lib Dems can be a strong, principled and hard-working opposition to Labour, holding them to account.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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2. A nice, well-behaved centre-left party, even with 72 MPs, isnât going to get the media coverage of Farage and co. If the Lib Dems go into the next election at 12-15% in the polls, facing a resurgent Tory party, they could easily lose a big chunk of Thursdayâs gains.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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First, the challenges: 1. Today, the Lib Dems have nowhere to expand to. Past the 72 seats, theyâre in second place in just a handful. That means targeting alone wonât move the party to the next level, theyâll need to get their national poll numbers up too.
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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The Lib Dems have had their best election in over a century, but they'll need to play a clever game in this parliament if they're to build on that success. A đ§ľ
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Old UK Print Ads
@oldukprintads.bsky.social
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Also by me: @OldUKCatalogues @OldUKCataloguesXm @OldInCatalogues @OldUKPrintAds @OldUKPrintAdsXmas @ZXVintage @ZXVintage40 @ChristmasUK @OldUKTVListings
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UK Election Results
@ukelections.mastodonapp.uk.ap.brid.gy
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MRP POLL ACCURACY
I've been reviewing the various MRP polls to see which one was closest to the actual general election result and #YouGov is the very clear winner.
Difference in number of seats won by a party compared to their final MRP projection:
đ´ Labour: -19
đľ Conservatives: +19
đ [âŚ]
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Iain Roberts
@slowbikeiain.bsky.social
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Labour's share of the vote was up 2% in 2024. The big difference was that other voters weren't afraid of Starmer as PM like they were Corbyn, so felt able to leave the Conservatives.
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