Stephen Bush's avatar

Stephen Bush

@stephenkb.bsky.social

Another dynamic worth noting is Labour has never won a majority without turnout dropping. In 1945, 1964, October 1974, 1997 and 2024 turnout was lower than in the previous defeat. And in 1964 and 2024 they got fewer votes. I do think there’s a type of British “Tory or nothing” voter…

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Stephen Bush's avatar Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social
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…that will only vote Conservative or not at all, and it’s possible that Reform gave those voters a third option.

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Jamie McKelvie's avatar Jamie McKelvie @mckelvie.bsky.social
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That's interesting, given how the received wisdom I see a lot is "lower turnout benefits rightwing parties".

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James Barr's avatar James Barr @jamesbarr.bsky.social
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Yes I think this is spot on.

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