Steve Bowen

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 02:55 UTC

#Beryl: Earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean.

Previous record: Emily (July 17, 2005)

The 160 mph winds also ties Emily as the strongest Atlantic storm prior to August.

No need for hyperbole. Beryl has reset the early season Atlantic record book.

1 replies 18 reposts 32 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 01:40 UTC

Definitely not good! Need the public to understand who the official sources are for information.

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 00:22 UTC

Reminder: The only official hurricane forecasts / tracks for the Atlantic Basin come from NOAA's National Hurricane Center. They employ the best of the best tropical cyclone forecasters. Period.

1 replies 2 reposts 8 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 20:42 UTC

The most beautiful hurricanes are sadly often the most dangerous. Mother Nature is a complicated thing.

#Beryl

0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:31 UTC

#Beryl is now the strongest hurricane ever officially recorded by July 1 in the Atlantic Ocean.

Previous record: Dennis on July 8, 2005. The only other storm to have 150+ mph winds in July was Emily (2005).

Remarkable. This is a massive warning sign for the rest of the season.

2 replies 19 reposts 29 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 16:37 UTC

Correct, this is knots. Apologies. Was running into character limits.

1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 16:06 UTC

There have been 24 Atlantic storms in the Satellite Era (1966-present) which have gone through a >70kt rapid intensification within a 36-hour period. (Min start of 35kt)

All of those storms originally formed in Aug, Sep, Oct, or Nov.

Until Beryl.

#Beryl is doing this in June.

1 replies 47 reposts 88 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 15:21 UTC

When Atlantic ocean waters in June are where they average in September, this result is no surprise.

This is thermodynamics at work.

Warmer waters at the surface and at deeper ocean depths. Warmer / moister atmosphere. More rapid intensification.

The science is clear.

#Beryl

0 replies 2 reposts 5 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 03:05 UTC

June 29 11pm ET: NHC now brings #Beryl very close to Category 4 intensity (≥130 mph) in two days as it enters the Caribbean Sea.

Current record for earliest Category 4+ in the Atlantic Ocean: Dennis (July 8, 2005).

2024 already starting comparisons with 1933 & 2005. Buckle up.

0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 01:57 UTC

#Beryl forecast to be the 3rd earliest Atlantic major hurricane on record; only behind Alma (June 8, 1966) and Audrey (June 27, 1957).

Only three other Cat. 3+ storms have formed thru the first week of July:

1916: Unnamed
2005: Dennis
2008: Bertha

Ominous start to the season.

0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 22:14 UTC

June 28: Soon-to-be #Beryl may make a run at major hurricane intensity in a few days. This would be rare for a first major at this early stage of the season in the Atlantic:

2008: July 7 (Bertha)
2005: July 7 (Dennis)
1996: July 9 (Bertha)
1966: June 8 (Alma)
1957: June 27 (Audrey)
1916: July 5

0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 19:58 UTC

Shouldn't we have had more Atlantic storms by now? Not really. Historical analog years since 1950 from Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State) for the 2024 season (1998, 2005, 2010, 2020) show that a seasonal ramp up almost always occurs in July / August. Be ready. It's coming.

0 replies 0 reposts 7 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 23, 2024 at 02:14 UTC

All of these statements are true: Weather will always happen. Not every weather event is linked to climate change. An increasing number of weather events are worsening in behavior / severity due to climate change. How / where we build is accelerating weather loss costs. Twitter (X) = cesspool.

0 replies 1 reposts 5 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 22, 2024 at 20:22 UTC

June 22: Ongoing flooding across parts of the Midwest is devastating communities and inundating cropland. River levels that exceed the historic floods of 1993 is an indication of severity. But. Welcome to the new climate reality. Heavier rains bringing new record flood heights.

0 replies 3 reposts 5 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 19, 2024 at 16:01 UTC

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is underway. Here's an updated look at National Flood Insurance (NFIP) active policies and county take-up rates in the US. With the exception of Florida, coastal states with high storm risk continue to see NFIP policy total declines. Not good.

0 replies 1 reposts 4 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 19, 2024 at 15:41 UTC

Here's a recent list of dates of first Atlantic named storms. 2024 is the latest first date since 2014. Meaning? Very little.

2014: July 1
2015: May 8
2016: January 12
2017: April 20
2018: May 26
2019: May 20
2020: May 17
2021: May 22
2022: June 5
2023: January 16
2024: June 19

#Alberto

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 17, 2024 at 22:41 UTC

Whether Potential Tropical Cyclone One has winds to become "Alberto" is not the main story. The rain and flood potential in #Texas and elsewhere is the focus.

FYI: Exceptional drought conditions have plagued #Mexico. Any intense rainfall could exacerbate a serious flood risk.

0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 16, 2024 at 13:18 UTC

Reflecting this Father's Day after recently spending the last week in ICU / hospital rooms in Hawaii. The teams at the Kapi'olani Medical Center literally saved my 13 month old son's life. Doctors. Nurses. Science. Trust the professionals and the peer reviewed research. I'm truly grateful.

0 replies 0 reposts 7 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 05, 2024 at 18:59 UTC

More storms means more landfall potential. All eyes will be on steering currents as the favorable environmental conditions in place clearly support cyclogenesis and rapid intensification cycles. It only takes one landfalling storm to result in a highly impactful season. (3/3)

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 05, 2024 at 18:58 UTC

All seasons since 1990 with >$100B in economic losses saw an above average number of hurricanes. For major hurricanes (Category 3+), the seasonal frequency shows similar correlation. *Note that this is a separate type of analysis than using seasonal landfall frequency. (2/3)

1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 05, 2024 at 18:57 UTC

Atlantic seasonal forecasts for 2024 are nearly unanimous in calling for above normal hurricane activity. Do seasons with a higher total number of hurricanes correlate to higher seasonal economic loss costs? From 1990 to 2023: Generally yes, but not always. (1/3)

1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 03, 2024 at 19:03 UTC

FYI: There may not be a more irrelevant and unhelpful analysis than trying to use aggregated disaster costs as a percentage of global GDP. It also removes any consideration of actual human / societal impacts. You don't need a "worst case" loss to cause long-term harm to a local community.

0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 03, 2024 at 18:50 UTC

NOAA's NCEI provides a great service with the billion-dollar loss database. It should be applauded. Quantifying the direct financial costs from weather / climate events is not a trivial exercise and often involves proprietary data. NOAA's methodology is accurate and strong.

1 replies 0 reposts 6 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 31, 2024 at 14:41 UTC

The huge hail event last night in Denver metro is going to add to the substantial US thunderstorm losses already incurred in May. The insurance industry is facing YTD losses exceeding $25 billion for the peril, and $30 billion is not far away. Absolutely relentless year. Again.

0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 30, 2024 at 13:23 UTC

Thrilled to announce that Gallagher Re has partnered with Colorado State University as part of our newly launched global Tropical Cyclone Consortium. This partnership will be facilitated via our Gallagher Research Centre. So much interesting, relevant, and useful research to come!

1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 28, 2024 at 15:43 UTC

A consistent driver in US thunderstorm losses is often the Dallas - Fort Worth metroplex. Just look at the housing unit urbanization growth in recent decades! Huge urban footprint expansion + A hotter and more unstable atmospheric environment = Higher damage loss costs (2/2)

0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 28, 2024 at 15:41 UTC

This multi-week stretch of US thunderstorms will result in a total economic cost of several billions of dollars. Insurers will cover a notable portion of the losses. YTD Stats (As of May 28): 30: EF3+ tornadoes (Decadal FY Avg: 24) 489: 2"+ hail reports (Decadal Avg thru May: 348) (1/2)

1 replies 3 reposts 4 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 23, 2024 at 17:22 UTC

The Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be quite active. Some insurance tips to consider: - Take pictures/videos of your stuff - Understand what your policy does / does not cover - NFIP policy? Know your policy limits - Know your evacuation route Be smart. Be calm. Be ready.

0 replies 6 reposts 13 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 21, 2024 at 13:53 UTC

Appropriate (and timely!) article today in @washingtonpost.com regarding US thunderstorm risk and subsequent loss trends. Happy to provide some commentary.

www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024...

0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 21, 2024 at 13:37 UTC

Friends don't let friends quote AccuWeather for natural catastrophe loss estimates.

0 replies 1 reposts 10 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 20, 2024 at 02:32 UTC

We are in peak "Derecho Season" in the US. This is in tandem with the start of peak heating months and the amplified "Ring of Fire" weather pattern. NOAA climatological research suggests that roughly two-thirds of derecho activity occurs in May, June, and July.

0 replies 2 reposts 4 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 17, 2024 at 01:45 UTC

The level of window damage in downtown Houston from tonight's thunderstorm looks comparable to wind impacts during a hurricane. Further reminder that you don't need a tornado to cause major SCS damage. An expensive night, again, for the peril. This continues to be a hugely costly hazard for the US.

0 replies 0 reposts 6 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 11, 2024 at 02:28 UTC

Northern Lights dancing in the Chicago metro area tonight! Gorgeous. Feel incredibly spoiled to see the totality of an eclipse and the Northern Lights in a matter of weeks! Science is cool.

0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 10, 2024 at 14:01 UTC

Hail continues to drive a lot of the damage. May 8-9, 2024 marked the third-highest number of consecutive day large hail (>2") reports since the 1950s: 1) May 24-25, 2011: 86 2) May 21-22, 2011: 81 3) May 8-9, 2024: 72 4) May 22-23, 2011: 71 5) April 8-9, 2011: 70 (2/2)

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 10, 2024 at 14:00 UTC

It has been quite a stretch of US severe convective storms. Since late April, we're facing a multi-billion-dollar cost (mid single-digit) for the insurance industry. For the year, US insured SCS loss costs are already quickly approaching $20B. This peril is relentless. (1/2)

1 replies 1 reposts 3 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 06, 2024 at 13:01 UTC

May 6: Please be weather aware today. A rare "High Risk (5 of 5)" of severe weather has been issued. All major hazards in play: long-track violent tornadoes, very large hail, and straight-line winds. These risks are possible all highlighted areas, and not just in the High zone.

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] May 03, 2024 at 01:28 UTC

At what point will people stop referring to severe convective storm (SCS) as a "secondary" natural peril hazard?

0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 29, 2024 at 18:54 UTC

The financial cost of US thunderstorms has been consistently growing more expensive in the last ~25 years. The predominant driver of these increased loss costs, by far, has been the expansion of urbanized footprints and more properties in high risk areas. Hail continues to drive much of the damage.

0 replies 2 reposts 6 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 27, 2024 at 02:44 UTC

The most appropriate framing of the EF5 tornado 'drought' should be: "X number of days since engineers and meteorologists discovered structural damage or vegetative impacts consistent with tornadic winds of EF5 intensity." That's wordy. But it's the truth.

0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 25, 2024 at 18:27 UTC

Another exhibit showing that climate risk is not just about changes in individual weather / climate hazards. This is an example of a first world climate refugee problem. The downstream implications of climate risk are massive. More people seem to be finally connecting the dots.

1 replies 4 reposts 9 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 23, 2024 at 20:24 UTC

IBHS released their latest "Rating the States: Hurricane Coast" report today. This is a state review of residential building code adoption, enforcement, training, education, and contractor licensing.

Texas has a lot of work to do.

ibhs.org/public-polic...

0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 22, 2024 at 22:37 UTC

Other states, including here in Illinois, are now running into grid operators not exactly eager to allow wind and solar into the mix.

www.chicagotribune.com/2024/04/21/c...

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 22, 2024 at 20:00 UTC

Yes, some private insurance carriers now write flood policies. And Florida's state-run Citizens now requires a flood policy for access to a residential policy. But this isn't enough to blunt the reality that fewer people are covered (prepared) if/when the next big flood disaster occurs. (3/3)

0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 22, 2024 at 19:59 UTC

There has been a steady decline in the number of active NFIP policies in recent years. Texas leads the way. Since March 2020, the active policy count has declined by 100,000. With the ongoing population boom, that means an even smaller % of homes with policies. Not good. (2/3)

1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 22, 2024 at 19:58 UTC

Today (April 22) marks 40 days until the start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1. If you want an active National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policy in place by June 1, you've got 10 days to sign-up given the standard 30-day waiting period. (1/3)

1 replies 1 reposts 1 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 22, 2024 at 14:21 UTC

Billion-dollar events drive the bulk of natural catastrophe loss costs in the US. However. Non-billion-dollar events normally account for another >20% of annual losses. Last 20 years? That equals $591B. So, an FYI. NOAA's >$1B loss data is terrific, but does not capture the full picture.

1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 17, 2024 at 15:00 UTC

The insured costs of Q1 2024 US thunderstorm activity rank as the second-costliest for the quarter on record. Only behind 2023. Unsurprisingly we typically see a spike during Q2 as we enter peak SCS months. This graphic showcases a timeseries of losses dating to 2000. Note: 2023 was bonkers!

0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 17, 2024 at 12:11 UTC

Today we've released our Q1 2024 Natural Catastrophe & Climate Report. From a financial perspective it was a manageable start to the year. But US thunderstorms still dominate loss totals for the insurance industry.

Preliminary Q1 Stats
- Economic: $43B
- Insured: $20B

www.ajg.com/gallagherre/...

0 replies 2 reposts 6 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 13, 2024 at 16:17 UTC

Here's another wrinkle in the growing challenge of insurability and climate risk. A fire station in California cannot get access to private insurance coverage due to being located in an area deemed too risky to offer policies.

www.politico.com/newsletters/...

0 replies 13 reposts 25 likes

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social [ View ] Apr 05, 2024 at 15:32 UTC

Update: The USGS continues to reassess and the magnitude keeps yo-yo'ing from M4.7 to M4.8. Currently M4.8.

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes