Taniel

TerynceRecherche @terynce.com [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 19:54 UTC

Very happy to have semi-randomly found @bolts.bsky.social

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 15:52 UTC

The number of 3-way and 4-ways in itself is extraordinarily unique. There were 8 in 2022; 1 in 2017. There were going to be 311 this year. This is to a great extent a matter of higher turnout because this is indexed to turnout effectively.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 15:15 UTC

This amount of coalescing against the far-right by no means looked certain as of a week ago. While it can't just erase Macronists' extraordinarily equivocating 'pox on both houses' rhetoric during the campaign, it does make it a lot harder for the far-right to win on Sunday.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 15:15 UTC

Le Monde breaks it down amazingly well:

—Left candidates:
132 dropped out
5 did not drop out in districts with an RN threat

—Macronists:
81 dropped out
16 didn't in "threat" districts

—Conservatives didn't care:
3 dropped out
12 didn't

lemonde.fr/les-decodeur...

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 15:14 UTC

FRANCE UPDATE: The near-final list of candidates who are in the French runoffs is out. Two days ago, 311 districts were going to have 3-way or 4-way runoffs. Then, 200+ candidates dropped out to block far-right. So: There'll be "just" 91 such runoffs this coming Sunday.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 15:14 UTC

I did see the latter but not the former!

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 15:14 UTC

There's no formal relationship, and virtually no governing relationship even sub-nationally. Ideologically though... a lot of RN has been absorbed in LR.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:38 UTC

It's plausible that some in LR are about to prop up the RN government, and even join the Cabinet, so we shall see.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:33 UTC

Some prominent members of the conservative party (LR) backing Left candidates who face the far-right.

For instance, head of the Nord region endorsing a Communist candidate: courrier-picard.fr/id538873/art...

Or in greater Paris region, LR leader backs a Green candidate in amusing way:

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:33 UTC

Wildest story yet in France:

1. Far-right/RN candidate said he was dropping out.

2. Turns out: He lied! He filed last minute.

3. Left (in 3rd) had dropped out, then filed once RN said he was out. She tried to drop out again; but too late.

So 3 names remain. www.ouest-france.fr/elections/le...

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 22:20 UTC

If you feel like there's not enough happening in the news right now, you're in luck: polls open in the United Kingdom in roughly 36 hours.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 17:54 UTC

NEW: The Supreme Court last week blessed bans on sleeping outside, effectively criminalizing homelessness.

Are you wondering what that means? Bolts just published a great roundtable with 3 experts that breaks it all down—& how this'll ramp up policing:
boltsmag.org/grants-pass-...

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 16:45 UTC

CNN's new poll: Trump leads Biden 49/43. Trump leads Harris 47/45. Some differences: —Independents: Biden -10%. Harris +3%. —People of color: Biden +21. Harris +29. The side-by-side:

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 16:07 UTC

Meanwhile, a far-right candidate dropped out from a runoff (in Calvados). Why? Pictures emerged of her wearing a Nazi hat.

(This is the 2nd RN candidate in two days who's dropped out over reporting like this. Neither looked likely to win, to be clear.) francebleu.fr/infos/politi...

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 16:07 UTC

FRANCE UPDATE: What's up today? —Deadline for candidates to decide if they want to stay in a runoff or drop out just passed. —About 20 new Macronist candidates who came 3rd decided to drop out today. Several had said earlier they'd stay in. But still, many staying in—we'll know more momentarily.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 20:19 UTC

A post-debate, New Hampshire poll by St. Anselm:
wmur.com/article/poll...

Trump up 44% to 42% over Biden.
(Biden led by 10% in their last poll, in December.)

54% of those who are aware of the debate say Trump won; 6% say Biden won.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 19:11 UTC

Le Monde has a great resource: www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeur...

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 19:10 UTC

That'd be assuming he'd prefer a strong left, which would seem evidently he does not.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 18:59 UTC

A Macronist who came in 3rd place in southern France says he is dropping out to block the far-right.

Results here: RN 36%, left 29%, Macronist 25%.

What's interesting...: He said as he dropped out that he got calls to *not* do so, including from Macron.
lemonde.fr/politique/li...

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 18:58 UTC

But, again, some Macronists are not dropping out at this hour in places where they are third & RN can win. See these two districts as example. Far-right under 35% in each... but that'd be enough in a 3-way.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 18:58 UTC

Another example of Macronists dropping out (the big thing to watch today): The "Hautes-Alpes" has 2 seats, both currently held by Macron's party. Yesterday, Macron's candidates arrived third in each district, behind the RN & the PS. They've both said they're dropping out.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 18:57 UTC

that is not correct. Macronists took a few hours, but they did end up articulating an approach of dropping out (as I've posted many times), but with vague exceptions that are now playing out, & some Macronist leaders are not instructing drop outs in key districts.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 14:27 UTC

THE sentence of the day: A Macronist incumbent in the Marseille region came in 3rd in her seat. She just dropped out to support the left. She said, about why she's maneuvering to block the far-right: "Defeats happen, but you can never recover from dishonor."

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 14:26 UTC

UPDATE: What is happening in France today? Left candidates who came in 3rd are dropping out of the runoffs to block the far-right. *Many* Macronists, including incumbents, are doing the same when they came in third. But... many said they won't. (I'd say about half/half right now? Deadline tmrw.)

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 05:15 UTC

I just went thru all the districts. I'm seeing more than 100 where the runoff is meant to be a 3-way, *and* where final result (whether the RN wins) could depend on whether the one of the 2 other candidate drops out. That's a lot! Big stakes in what candidates choose to do tomorrow & Tuesday.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 05:15 UTC

Remember: When you win the Assembly, you have most of the powers in France. President has few defined counter-powers; e.g.: no veto. A "cohabitation" is absolutely not a U.S.-style "split government." Far-right would effectively govern, if it wins.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 05:14 UTC

No, the French president has little powers in such a situation. By and large, the Prime Minister governs & the Assembly legislates. President has no veto power.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 04:12 UTC

Very roughly, LR voters may go something like 33 Macron, 33 far-right, 33 nonvoting in Macron/far-right runoffs... but there just aren't that many people voting LR at all in places where LR isn't already strong and in runoffs. Macronists, well that's the million dollar question!

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 04:02 UTC

I think that the Left has made it as iron-clad rule as it could. And that Macronists are more clearly anti-RN tonight than at any point over the last 3 weeks, though I think everything they said for 3 weeks can't be erased in just a few days

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 04:01 UTC

I didn't say they *had* to drop out — the point is that they're allowed to stay in the runoff in many places. Macronist leaders indicated they'd be drop-outs in places the RN can win... with exceptions. Some of their MPs have already indicated they won't obey. Very hard at this point to know scope.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 04:00 UTC

Roughly 75, including 37 for the far-right, and 32 for the left.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 04:00 UTC

1) IPSOS pollster point blank said on TV that the projection was based on the round 1 results, including if there are 3-ways. So it will surely change. 2) But also 2022 had nearly only two-way runoffs ... and RN did unexpectedly well in those. Drop-outs don't really equate ''Democratic alliances'

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 03:55 UTC

Folks, I spent today jumping into weeds of the French election in this thread—you can read it below!—but I'm sure I lost many of you who want the 'big picture'. Let's do a quick AMA for 10-15 minutes: ask me what you want to know!

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 03:08 UTC

All ballots in: NATIONAL RESULTS across all French districts. —Far-right bloc (RN + Ciotti candidates): 33.15% —Left bloc (Nouveau Front Populaire): 28.0% —Macron bloc: 20.0% —Conservative Party (LR): 6.6% (Other right: ≈5%. Other left: ≈3%.)

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 03:08 UTC

Never say never but that sounds especially unlikely given the Horizons/LFI situation

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 02:15 UTC

EXTREMELY strong results for far-right in the Provence + Cote d'Azur area. Yes, far-right will likely lose a handful of these districts where it's up here (IF runoffs consolidate), say in Marseille or Aix, maybe 1 in Nice. But it'll come close to a sweep throughout otherwise.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 22:52 UTC

A big Macronist defeat (& Left gain) in Paris: Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire (the chief deputy, and also rival, of Mayor Anne Hidalgo) has won outright in the first round. He ousts the 2022 winner, Macronist Clement Beaune (who was in Macron's cabinet until recently).

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 22:51 UTC

One of far-right's strongest areas: the Pas-de-Calais, in the north. They won 6 of 12 districts in 2022. Today? They've already won as many today in the first round, without even needing a runoff. And they're STRONGLY favored to win the other 6 in the runoffs. Sweep likely.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 22:51 UTC

Important development: A member of Macron's Cabinet, who won this Marseille seat in 2022, came in 3rd today behind the far-right & the left. She advanced to runoff, but she just announced she'll drop out to help block far-right. (Still, may be hard: far-right already at 45%.)

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 22:51 UTC

A new tune is emerging on TV in past hour: Several Macron spokespeople clearly signal they'll try for their bloc to ally with center-left MPs (from PS) & conservative MPs (from LR) to form some sort of governing coalition. (That'd involve left bloc splitting.)

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 22:09 UTC

So, what's next: a difficult, seat-by-seat battle for those who want to block far-right.

Will people really unite against RN? What will the exceptions be? How will the supporters of eliminated candidates go?

A lot more info & examples in this thread: bsky.app/profile/tani...

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 22:08 UTC

What's next? —Left made it clear: They'll drop out from runoffs when 3rd. They are calling for ppl to vote for whomever faces the far-right. —Macronists are gradually moving toward also endorsing a "republican front" against far-right, but with more ambivalence & exceptions.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 22:08 UTC

If you're catching up, the news in France in 2 tweets. —Far-right: historic night. They could win majority next week, but nothing certain. —Left: Robust 2nd. Dominating cities. Still, not what it was hoping. —Macronists: 3rd, will lose many seats. Tho many incumbents resisted.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 20:49 UTC

Recapping: —Great night for far-right. Big surges all around France. Can win next week, but nothing certain. —Left bloc 2nd. But not great for them: stable since 2022, not what they need to win overall. —Macronists 3rd, will fall A LOT. But got just enough to still make many runoffs.

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