I'm presently afflicted with the curse of the Twitterati, work, so I'm only able to intermittently join the BBC coverage & I therefore lack context about this graphic. The prediction is about 36.1% which would be above 2019 but below 2017.
Yes that's correct (although there are other figures floating around like 39%, too).
It's a sizable recovery since 2019, and it's an underwhelming result compared to 2017, and the major difference appears to be the collapse in the Conservative vote (both overall and especially the Reform split).