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Sara Manns@whatsarasaid.bsky.social |
No national (1) poll taken by phone (2) using incomplete surveys (3) while weighting based on last 3 elections without accounting for newly registered because of Dobbs (4) knows anything: 1 state polls or GTFO 2 1200 dials/1 survey 3 attributing completion? wha? 4 these ppl will vote, they practiced
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Philip N Cohen
@philipncohen.bsky.social
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I don't understand that but if it means Biden is winning that's great!
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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those are just the top 4 issues polling is hard to do right now and I'm not convinced any of it reflects anything we know, but what we can know for sure is that the instruments we've used to predict both who votes & how they vote are not calibrated to reality so it's hard to be sure who is losing
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