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Sara Manns@whatsarasaid.bsky.social |
225 followers 626 following 2309 posts
Your family deserves health care freedom. Roots in Ohio, branches where the sagebrush grows. What didn't kill me made me furious. Display pic: my face smiling because I’m out in the woods. profile pic: mural of Article 2 of the UN Convention on Genocide
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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those are just the top 4 issues polling is hard to do right now and I'm not convinced any of it reflects anything we know, but what we can know for sure is that the instruments we've used to predict both who votes & how they vote are not calibrated to reality so it's hard to be sure who is losing
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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No national (1) poll taken by phone (2) using incomplete surveys (3) while weighting based on last 3 elections without accounting for newly registered because of Dobbs (4) knows anything: 1 state polls or GTFO 2 1200 dials/1 survey 3 attributing completion? wha? 4 these ppl will vote, they practiced
2 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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sometime look up the Broken Arrow prosecution, in which the FBI used our tax dollars to open a dirty bookstore in Oklahoma so they could prosecute the printers mailing the dirty books or the prosecutions after Occupy in places like Cleveland entrapment is a pattern of federal law enforcement
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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Oh come on. You know how to develop a poll, and you know how to read a poll. You know that we don't know whether Biden is losing, all we know is that the instruments we expect to tell us what to expect are being recalibrated on the fly AND elite newsrooms are finally grasping that Biden is 81.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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read this fast & thought, at this point Irish fairies are probably a better place to get a fair hearing than the editorial board of the NYT but you meant Capitol Hill, my bad
0 replies 0 reposts 9 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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came here to say my parents were calling me by my sister's name before they were 30, this may have been exhaustion as I was a tiresome little fucker even then, but it's not cognitive impairment or dementia, my dad went on to pass the bar exam
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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the issue w this method is that in key states, an issue on the ballot that has driven registration drives & voting patterns in similar demographics reflecting those newly registered voters actually voting how Trump overcomes abortion rights voters in AZ, NV & WI is not accounted for; OH?
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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Watched it myself Sun while listening to Ezra Klein re-wet the bed from February & was stunned by the first 22 min. The tough part: Ezra had a point back then, which was 'Joe Biden is going to be 86 on 1/21/29, unless he's not & we have a different interesting problem'. Today, unclear what to do.
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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I think an account's ratio of insane comments to follows is the right measure
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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I think the FOX attacks have helped him by lowering the impact of his actual debate performance on voters-it's hard to know what's true, because they push out nonsense daily, when he's out riding his bike but it's up to him whether to let the NYT do to the country what they did to Harvard
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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If the GOP convention were to account for the massively unpopular felon and rapist at the top of the ticket, that would give them a jolt of energy too. Can we have some speculation about why it won't?
0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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yes, and as I tell my students: no one can be sure who is going to vote how, but you can look at something like this [RCP poll w/Trump up by 9] & be sure that the process they're using cannot predict reliably making explicit 'no one knows' vs 'we can't tell using this instrument' is tiring though
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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run to your bicycle and ride that thing to Marine One like the devil himself is after you
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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this is true for me too also it's not the flip side, I was a very ugly kid
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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this poll *is* wrong by which I mean, its sampling and weighting are independent sources of error, which when multiplied compound the errors I don't know how to find out who the people who are definitely going to vote in November are going to vote for, but I know this ain't it
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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you wanna defund the police down to paw patrol? right there with you, cops don't solve or prevent crimes defund consumer protections & enforcing laws, which are how less powerful members of the community avoid abuses by the powerful? nope
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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joy cometh in the morning is so iconically Psalms that anyone who misunderstood this very perfect ref to both the Black Panther/AME church AND the Reform Jew branches on her tree is disqualified from further comments
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David Shiffman, Ph.D. 🦈
@whysharksmatter.bsky.social
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Reminder from a Pittsburgher who was at one point Mr. Rogers neighbor: “Look for the helpers” was intended to be advice for his usual audience, children. We’re grown ups now. We’re supposed to be the helpers.
12 replies 399 reposts 1379 likes
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Kendra "Gloom is My Beat" Pierre-Louis
@kendrawrites.bsky.social
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IDK kind of feels like we should be paying more attention to a prominent conservative think tank saying we're in the midst of a second american revolution that will remain bloodless as long as long as the left lets it be, then whether or not Biden should step down.
11 replies 153 reposts 486 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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it's not a flag it's a pennant
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Cheri Jacobus
@cherijacobus.bsky.social
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President Biden can now, as an official act, fire Louis DeJoy immediately.
2 replies 34 reposts 139 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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might? Right wing nut jobs in this country are still crying that anyone faced a consequence for storming the Capitol, and there are many more of Ashli whatsherface out there.
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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Ok
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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your predictions fail to account for (at least) the 3 factors I'm suggesting should be included along with your facts about historical trends in assassination attempts against US Presidents
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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he's 78 and lives on hamburgers & speed, why take a chance that he says something to distract a national press corps in the process of choosing our next president the same way they decided Harvard couldn't be run by a Black woman
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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I met a guy on a plane recently who explained his career change from CNN camera guy with: I just got tired of the death threats and the day I had to take the tackle so my on air talent didn't get a black eye was the end
1 replies 0 reposts 11 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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this is unhingedly wrong 1) drones (security is better, emergency medicine is better, robots that lower the skills required? also better) 2) the political payoff for putting Johnson in the WH is what changes the odds of attempts 3) read up on white supremacists' organizing online & give it thought
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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yeah, if anyone thinks it's possible for Biden to resign & have President Harris sworn in a second time 1/21/25, I invite you to ask yourself why was JFK even IN Dallas (he needed to shore up TX, despite having a Texan on the ticket with him, securing him was impossible, the threat was understood)
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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It would be impossible for Harris to campaign as aggressively as she needs to while being protected from terrorists who see their chance to put a Godly Christian Republican in the White House with violence We're adults, we can face facts. Biden's security plan is in part 'Black woman is up next'.
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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yeah if I'm Doug E today, I am going all in against Biden resigning, as a strategy to get old with my wife instead of burying her on live TV to help get some other Democrat elected
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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...why do they believe the consequences of capitulating to the whims of Tom 'shoot those un American protestors' Cotton & Josh 'fast for a white dude' Hawley are going to fall on someone else, not them?
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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Did you enjoy your parents' reminiscing about the summer of 1968? We have an idea.
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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it's so weird they think so there is literally no amount of money that will insulate elites from the material consequences of Republicans taking power in DC too many people heard 'wealthy women will always be able to get an abortion' & thought it was a feature, also, a stable economy means profits
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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter
@swolecialism.bsky.social
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this is the newspaper that published tom cotton calling for us to be shot in the street, of their own free will, and without even reading his piece first, or editing it. you simply do not have to accept them as an unbiased source.
4 replies 35 reposts 160 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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If you are on here despairing about your future in The Camps but haven't been to a city council/school board meeting, PSA: Courts don't give us rights. Presidents don't give us rights. Organizing to fight for our rights-which courts and Presidents and state AGs can interfere with-is the only way.
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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speaking as an organizer who somehow improbably fell sideways into directing policy & messaging...blocking w/both hands rn If you're mad because I'm connecting the dots for those who don't know? Block. Mad because I'm suggesting action is necessary even when it's not sufficient? Outta here.
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☀️ Starshine
@starshine.bsky.social
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they have these gatherings of annoying people called city council meetings and if you bring a couple other annoying people regularly you can actually accomplish a lot
2 replies 36 reposts 123 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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Right. It’s permanent placement of saboteurs inside the state working to prevent policies people voted for.
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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No Loper Bright means federal judges w no elections to face get to choose which agency actions are OK
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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Project 2025 got a big boost from SCOTUS last week. The courts will simply invalidate any agency reg they disagree with while leaving the advances in authoritarian repression in place.
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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Online cosplayers love to tell you they won’t attend a zoning board meeting because they only way to solve the housing crisis is free houses for everyone and then not squat in an empty Airbnb.
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Micah
@rincewind.run
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the media, led by the Times, has done to Biden what they did to Claudine Gay at Harvard there is no way to convince the public, because the people who he needs to convince to do that (the media) are never going to tell the public that he’s fine I think dropping out is a when, not if at this point
31 replies 27 reposts 145 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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Unfortunately the NYT didn’t get the insider interview they wanted so they’re going to choose who the president is
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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👇🏽The regular host of this program is in a federal prison, context
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-𝚖𝚘𝚡
@moxiest.art
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It's not going to come down to a president or red states or blue states. It's going to come down to electing mayors and city council members that are brave enough to say "you're going to need to send in the National Guard if you want that shit enforced here." This is why we vote.
10 replies 114 reposts 387 likes
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Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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Category error watch. People keep assuming legal proceduralism will apply in an authoritarian state.
28 replies 112 reposts 600 likes
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Hayes Brown
@hayesbrown.bsky.social
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idk it just seems to me that laws, like tech, should be created with the question "what would the worst person i know be able to do with this power" in mind and it's truly incredible how much this opinion fails at that basic task
38 replies 160 reposts 879 likes
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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Oddly when I mentioned this in the context of Grants Pass having the power to criminalize anyone who’s outside I got a lot of blocks so I guess today we’re ready for SCOTUS has created an executive branch that can offer a cheaper option than locking her up for any dissident
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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You’re both right: whoever is at the top of the Democratic ticket in AZ, NV, WI is winning those states, because of abortion organizing. OH, MO & MT are going to be closer than the RNC has the stomach for. Same reason. Also, the DCCC has a historic opportunity to impose some party discipline here.
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Sara Manns
@whatsarasaid.bsky.social
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The prophet of Lorain, Ohio, had some words for so much nonsense
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