Will Oosterman

Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 21:43 UTC

Just some food for thought here.

slate.com/news-and-pol...

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 21:28 UTC

I'm not saying the man can't read from a teleprompter. I'm saying that he did not seem competent during the debate. He couldn't create coherent sentences, defend his record or call out Trump's many lies. That's not going to get better and that's not how a party wins an election.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 20:24 UTC

Dems, as a party, can't control Trump. We can only respond to the existential threat he represents. Biden is in decline, and no amount of senior Dems saying otherwise will change that. I'll still vote for him, but I'd vote for a potted plant instead of Trump. I'd like there to be a difference.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 20:21 UTC

In reality though, I don't think there's any doubt that people who would support a generic dem won't support Biden. He showed the country that he's incapable of forming cogent thoughts or defending his record. The goal for all Dems should be running a candidate that can beat Trump. Biden's not it.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 15:14 UTC

This is the right analysis. The stakes are too high to take this chance.

slate.com/news-and-pol...

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 13:49 UTC

to determine what "sufficient" means. Under Loper Bright, the COURTS will determine what sufficient means. So the court has basically taken it upon itself to overrule any regulation it likes so long as the enabling legislation is ambiguous. Which is basically all of them.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 13:48 UTC

Well this is complicated, but I don't think it's quite right. Chevron meant that, where there was an ambiguity in the enabling legislation, the courts would defer to the agency to determine the scope of the rule. If the law says "sufficient to limit...," the courts would defer to the agency...

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 21:21 UTC

Perhaps you're right. Scary numbers to see in a state that he won in 2020 by 8 though. Can barely believe the debate had no influence on those numbers.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 20:39 UTC

Biden was +10 in this poll in December. 54 percent of respondents saw the debate, 6 percent said Biden won.

State polls matter. National ones rarely do.

www.wmur.com/article/poll...

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 17:20 UTC

Seems like the best way to demonstrate the utter absurdity of the reasoning in the Trump decision.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 16:19 UTC

Heads I win, tails you lose.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:57 UTC

Why prosecute? Why not just imprison? Why stop there? The guardrails are gone.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:48 UTC

At least as long as there's a Republican majority on the court. Once that changes, so does the paradigm. Crazy that the court is now the most powerful branch of government, and the legislative the least. Only took one term!

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:47 UTC

Between the neutering of the administrative state and the deifying of the executive, the court has created a heads I win tails you lose paradigm. Democrats will never be able to accomplish anything and Republicans can do whatever they want and stay in power forever.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:23 UTC

Should probably have them simultaneously given the stakes.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:21 UTC

Today all the guardrails came off, both for executive power and somehow, somewhat contradictory, the administrative state. Crazy times ahead.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 15:01 UTC

As Sotomayor details in her dissent in the Trump immunity case, this court has bent over backwards to serve their master, distorting the constitution, the rule of law, and the functioning of the federal government. Our children will never see a government the rest of us have taken for granted.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 14:32 UTC

There's no direct link, except for the fact that Biden is losing in every single poll. I don't think his performance, and questions about his cognitive ability, helped matters.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 14:23 UTC

I wasn't saying anything about Trump. I think he's a disgrace who would destroy the country. I'll vote for a potted plant before I vote for him. But many people won't, and that will make the difference in this election.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 14:21 UTC

Biden won by 100,000 votes across three states. The margin isn't there "for a bunch still will." He loses if less than 1 percent of democrats stay home because of their belief that he isn't mentally up for the job.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 01, 2024 at 13:51 UTC

Can't win an election if 72% of the public thinks you're mentally not capable of holding the office based on a debate that basically proves the point. That would be disqualifying even for people who like his policies and would otherwise be indifferent to the candidate.

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 16:41 UTC

The key to effective rule of law is predictability. With every ruling this court makes, American law becomes more uncertain, eroding the belief that everyone is playing by the same set of rules. I suspect we'll all come to regret what the court has done today. RIP Chevron. #chevron #supremecourt

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Will Oosterman @willoosterman.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 14:25 UTC

They killed Chevron.

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