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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Who said non-Harris?
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Martin Schneider@wovenstrap.bsky.social |
274 followers 338 following 3418 posts
editor of copy: the yale review / harvard up / yale up princeton up / cornell up / random house yale school of mgmt / cleveland orchestra smog veil records / mit press / etc
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Who said non-Harris?
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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The Biden voter cannot exist in a state of terror for five more months. Biden as leader of the party is required to show leadership by alleviating that situation. Whatever he's been doing the last week has been the opposite. If "staying on" doesn't alleviate it then something else has to happen.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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We spoke in terms of 7 days. ... I am hoping he bounces back.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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OK. Enough for today.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Biden's main goal in life is to represent the heart of the Democratic Party. The rest of this writes itself. If the party sees disaster ahead he will get out.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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You want to call it impossible, fine. You know I agree with you about just about everything else. But I think 25A and impeachment and nothing is not an accurate summary of how this is going to go, or could go.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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again, in the face of real disaster in the Biden noggin, there won't be anything difficult about that.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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All you need is signs of major mental damage and/or clear evidence he is about to lose. These factors all melt away in the face of that.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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I've been told repeatedly in this thread that there is no way anybody could ever force Biden out or whatever. That's clearly not true IMO. That's the discussion I'm having. I'm not having the one you're having.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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What if it emerges that Biden suppressed unpleasant neurological data dating from just before the primaries? How much are those legally binding actions worth?
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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i think I meant the "being forced to" business. The filibuster is clearly irrelevant. Obviously nobody can be shamed out of anything like that. But this is not very similar.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Do you personally think that the Democratic Party has reached a consensus that he has to go? If not, then why would it be proof of anything that they have not pressured him to leave?
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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It's very early days. How many congresspersons have said this? It's like single digits. I am not rooting for this by the way. He might prove himself to be fine and we can all move forward, who knows. But if that chorus gets louder it will have more of an effect.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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they are going to express themselves one way or another. I mentioned Congresspersons. One of POTUS/nominee's core jobs is getting those people reelected. If they say he can't run, at some point it becomes a reality.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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If you are showing signs of medical distress, I think those things don't really apply.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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My real point is that you can't go into an election season at war with your own party. Biden's main trait as a human being is representing the core of the Democratic Party as it exists.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Good luck with that.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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I doubt that that is true. It's a party, they can do what they want. They will be risking arrest by not doing that? I doubt it.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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I think the party has a significant date on its calendar. But my point is really, that's not required.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Right. So? What about delegates expressing themselves?
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Is there not like a vote on a convention floor in a few weeks? Isn't that happening? Why does it all have to be governmental organs?
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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You're sort of stuck on this. You used a phrase a minute ago about everything being useless absent an actual coma. If he can't run he can't run and he will recognize this. And the party voices will make it hard to run.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Question really doesn't seem relevant at all. Answer, no but so what?
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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I think the 7-day countdown model might be surprisingly apt.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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I get what you are saying but there are ways Biden could be pressured. Constant calls for a neurological exam and he clams up about it. Not sustainable. Eventually that resolves into all of Congress asking him to step aside.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Dunning-Kruger Faktion
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Enjoy the lethal baserunning shenanigans of José Ramírez.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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George W. Bush took half the year off. Give me a break with this.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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They probably have a suggestion box.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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I sure hope some big-time journalists hear about this.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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there's discourse about the ethics of pre-writing articles further up. still connects, I think. darn bsky interface.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Yes, it sure is a scandal that our candidate's poor performance was so thoroughly foreseeable that a journalist could prepare their reaction in advance. Not exactly what I would call a smoking gun.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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I want to see the philosophical paper about whether the dog is a player or a controller here. I think the human is playing, but the controller happens to be a dog.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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I agree with you that on balance, the miltary is much more likely to check Trump come what may.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Yes, but if you ask, why doesn't capital sacrifice in 1970 or 2005 and work together with labor to create a proper safety net, the Civil War is not relevant to that. We will saunter along without one until it becomes clear we have to build something like that up.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Maybe 2070 but yes. Europe spent all of 1875-1945 indulging in reckless extreme (L-R) politics and paid a massive price for it, learned the virtues of moderation/cooperation and rebuilt their society. One of the problems of the US is that the US never went through anything that pulverizing.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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It's a lot better than pretending Biden is not incredibly old.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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The Biden palaver writes itself: "Holy shit, I am old! I can't do this four more years! But I'm damn good at presidenting and I'll make sure that Harris has all the prep she needs in 2026 when she takes over. But please, let me just kick Trump's ass one last time before I ride into the sunset...."
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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It's risky but to me it has at least the potential of exploding the current quagmire where every option is the worst thing that ever happened.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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My preferred solution is Biden campaigns in 2024 and says openly that he will not serve out the full term. So you're kind of voting for a future Pres. Harris in the act of voting for Biden. To me this is the best of both worlds. You get Biden campaigning now and subtract the image of him at 86.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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The problem is, if Biden had brain damage..... imagine a world in which Biden had brain damage..... we would have to switch to KH and grin and bear it, make the best of it. Biden might have 10% of that and switching may ultimately be necessary. But it's going to be very, very hard.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Well yes, this was baked into the 2020 recipe for success but it seems like a long time ago.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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I don't know what you are asking. Biden is a familiar figure perceived as weak or something. There is no affinity for Kamala. The people I am talking to would universally vote for Kamala (not happily) but they are "reading the room" in the state and to them it's obvious it's not going to go well.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Just chatting with friends here in Ohio (all Dems), I suspect that the bluesky/NYT discourse may be severely underpricing midwestern white resistance to Kamala Harris. The phrase "Even less likeable than Hillary" came up twice. We're about to learn how badly ~55% of voters want to avoid Trump II.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Yeah, that was my mom all over. I never got into the Trollope shows as strongly.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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It's mostly what my mom liked. I watched some of them with her. Another police procedural that is less old but surprisingly good (despite the lurid premise and title) is Waking the Dead.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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Oh yeah, A Town Like Alice, that's another one. Nevil Shute might be good for reading material as well.
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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If they are looking for old-school BBC longform narratives, you've got "When the Boat Comes in" (about northern mining town in the Depression), Tenko (WW2 drama about civilian internment camp in the Far East), Jewel in the Crown (Brits in India etc.).
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Martin Schneider
@wovenstrap.bsky.social
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LOL, I see. I will keep an eye out.
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