|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
And I'd guess she knows it, which is why she's continuing to run a tight ship.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman@wymancr.bsky.social |
257 followers 174 following 5844 posts
He/him. Probably the quietest person you know if you meet me.
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
And I'd guess she knows it, which is why she's continuing to run a tight ship.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Safe travels, let us know if you get any super powers. Or a t-shirt or whatever.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Yeah, good time to go on a retreat somewhere and just pound the hell out of some irl activity. Everyone is going nuts with nothing productive to do and I'm back on board with an emergency government program to fund some scenes or something to siphon off this energy.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Yup, which just makes the manifold failures in 2016 more tragic. We're going to be fighting these headwinds for decades unless we get really lucky on Thomas and Alito.
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Hmm. The centrist panic is making me doubt there were ever 48 solid votes to end the filibuster. A couple of sternly worded op-eds from Joe Kahn's crew and these chumps will fold like a cheap suit.
3 replies 7 reposts 27 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
They have a good working relationship for sure. Plus Bernie has been around the block enough times to know how that town works, and I'm sure feels sympathy for being on the wrong end of a corporate media and donor stampede.
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
"New Yorkers are extraordinarily sour on Joe Biden" would go a *long* way toward explaining the terrible vibes in the media. Just saying.
1 replies 1 reposts 7 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
EC bias is a random walk over multiple cycles so it's not impossible. Also why you shouldn't extrapolate over few data points.
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Like that would be a recipe for Biden winning the EC while losing the PV. Still seems supremely unlikely, but that really would be the maximum chaos result that actually build momentum for reform.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
A repeat of 2022 where we see a Blue Wave *except* in the two media capitals (and Florida being Florida I guess) would be a cursed yet hilarious result, ngl.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Trump has some super power reality distortion field at play when even his liberal opponents can't stay over the target. Pretty notable that Squad-Bernie leftists understand the assignment better than anyone. It's the most bizarre thing I've seen yet.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Just on the debate, there's plenty of polling that people thought Biden was too old, but *also* didn't like what Trump had to say. Imagine what could have been if we spent the last two weeks hitting "Everyone wanted to end Roe," "Black jobs," etc.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
I too find propaganda icky, but the "you can't tell voters they didn't see what they saw" line is dumb. Fox does it all the time to draw the focus away from Trump's incoherent ramblings and astonishing claims and clean up his image.
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Fox News dabbled in moderating the intra-right civil war when they thought voters were making a mistake, but they were very quick to bend the knee and go full on Trumpist propaganda when it was clear that was the only path forward. Again, this is one of the big asymetries.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
The problem with liberal, but not partisan media (or at least media who's primary audience is affluent liberals) is they think it's their job to obsessively report and moderate factional disputes, but not their job to cheerlead or create a pro-party narrative.
3 replies 0 reposts 12 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Whatever. A decision will be made at some point. I'm going to continue saying Not The Fascist and Not The Antivaxxer is the best candidate for the next 4 years.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Goalposts are moving to after the NATO summit and next will be after the RNC. I don't think we're going to stop flogging this equine carcass until after the delegates have voted. And probably some folks will still continue doing their best Japanese soldier in an island foxhole after WW2 impression.
1 replies 1 reposts 5 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
(Not saying it's a good or uncontestable argument given the calendar and state of play, but it's a much cleaner one to hash out)
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
"He's unambiguously losing and he should step aside" is a much more straightforward argument that's getting muddied by all the fitness crap people are using not to sound so cold blooded or whatever.
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
It's buyer's remorse, to be blunt, and they're looking for the loophole that let's them back out, seemingly assuming they won't have a whole new set of things to feel anxious over with a new ticket. Or that base voters might have different feelings.
2 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
I don't dare predict if it will actually happen, but pressure is slowly building for rate cuts to start, which could trigger some vibes shifting.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
And having a coordinated push across all levels is good. More of this please.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
The centrists should talk to Obama era Blue Dogs about how well running away from the President works. Manchin was one of the few to pull it off, and it's kind of notable he's not on board with the public freakout regardless of what he privately thinks.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
The AOC impeachment is good on the substance, and also shows how much smarter she is than Very Serious Centrists. Hang together or hang separately. If Biden loses big, voters will scarcely care you were right to call him a loser. But if Biden wins, having chits to cash in with POTUS is gold.
1 replies 1 reposts 2 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
The media's obsession with scoops is still bad. I remember hood critiques of that like 15-20 years ago. It leads to sloppy practice rushing out thinly sourced and barely fact checked hits. Seems particularly relevant again.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
This also has obvious implications for his culpability in refusing to drop if he's non compos mentis. The way people seamlessly move back and forth on this is a huge bullshit flag.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
I think people are badly underestimating the financial difficulties YOLOing a completely new ticket entails. Also the personnel difficulties. I'm not sure running a 50 state campaign with a bunch of disgruntled ex-Biden volunteers and staff is wise, if this goes down ugly.
0 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
It's not undemocratic for a party to decide nominees, but it is undemocratic and deeply stupid to throw out 14.5 million votes and say "oops" absent the presumptive nominee saying he can't continue. This is all so tiring. The perception Trump is an existential threat is driving us around the bend.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
What's that, Biden has a firm handshake you say? I know one voter he's winning.
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Paul add the Beetlejuice jackoff gif. You'll save this dude so much writing.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
He will not, but as we saw with the Kissinger statement, he knows how how to say fuck you with the nicest smile.
0 replies 0 reposts 8 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Audience capture is real.
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
I'm profoundly uncertain. The Trump era has really shown the guardrails on what the American electorate will accept no longer exist and the low social trust environment has badly damaged traditional data tools, so we should all have much larger error bars. And yet.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
I'm not sue I believe this, but that's the best case scenario and pretty much what you would need for a Democratic 1984.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
The optimistic scenario is that polls are accurately capturing Biden improving with the over 65 (perhaps because of negative polarization or perhaps because they've actually done quite well despite inflation due to COLA), and drastically overstating weakness with youth/POC due to low response rates.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Yes, and I hope they've thoroughly cleaned house at Secret Service.
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Not doing anything to dissuade the belief they have no theory of the case and are just flailing and hoping something sticks.
0 replies 0 reposts 8 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Yup. The assumption Trump was finished after that so no need to rile up the cult made for some really bad decisions.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
One of the annoying things to get normalized during the Trump years. We've already got too much commentary and posting, we don't need elected officials doing it too.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
This is more or less what Pence did with the national guard on 1/6, btw, but then the cabinet just kind of ignored it and let Trump finish his term and now here we are.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
If a president really were sundowning during a nuclear strike, presumably VP would step in and they'd sort it out with a 25th amendment invocation later. It's less than ideal and we should seek to nominate healthy candidates, obviously, but the national security state has us covered.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Since I'm seeing some chatter on how adversaries know we're screwed after 8pm.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
No, the United States would not be unable to launch a retaliatory nuclear attack if POTUS is suddenly incapacitated. Since the Carter administration, VPOTUS also has a nuclear football. They've already thought of that. No need for FLOTUS to illegally assume command or whatever dumb idea.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Harris the most vetted and hence probably safest alternative bet because she's been vetted for a national campaign, but that's not saying much. Nobody unleashes all their best oppo on the Vice Presidential candidate. It's still a risk.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Sometimes the scandal mongering doesn't work, like Birtherism in 2012. But these things are really hard to predict a priori.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
I just wish people would have more humility about their electability arguments. I'm old enough to remember when John Kerry's war record would make him unassailable against Bush. Then Rove unleashed the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth. Less name recognition means greater downsides as well as upsides.
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
If Trump is almost guaranteed to win, wouldn't it be *more* important for journalists to focus on who he's going to bring into government and what their views, track records, and stated goals are? That was the media's justification for obsessively covering Clinton and her associates in 2016.
0 replies 6 reposts 15 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Yep. And granted, someone 30 years younger would have an easier time bouncing back, and that is something to be genuinely concerned about in POTUS, that goes for the other guy too. So it's hard to see this being decisive if (big if) people treat the election as a choice.
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Right. It really comes down to whether you believe him when he says he needs more sleep, or if you think he has genuine cognitive impairment and is doomed to fuck up worse. And there's way too much bullshit flying around to be as confident as some people are.
2 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
|
|
Chris Wyman
@wymancr.bsky.social
[ View ] |
If you think age is insurmountable that's going to be "so what?" but if you don't, you're going to want Democrats and aligned media working on stuff like the vibescession we were talking about 6 months ago.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes